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Just Transition, Climate Change, And India: A Mid-2025 Perspective

India’s climate strategy in 2025 stands at a pivotal crossroads—offering transformative opportunities while confronting deep-rooted socioeconomic challenges. The idea of a “just transition”—a shift to a low-carbon economy grounded in equity, inclusion, and social protection—is becoming central to India's climate narrative. With the accelerating pace of global warming and evolving energy dynamics, India must carefully balance its international commitments with the lived realities of a large, diverse, and developing population. A just transition in India means reskilling workers, providing income security, and investing in infrastructure in regions reliant on fossil fuels. It must also be anchored in inclusive policy frameworks that generate green jobs and secure livelihoods for historically marginalized communities. India’s Role in the Global Clean Energy Shift As of 2025, emerging economies like India account for nearly 60 percent of the $1.6 trillion pipeline of global clean industrial projects—a significant reorientation in climate investment flows. However, financing hurdles, regulatory ambiguities, and supply chain inefficiencies keep many of these initiatives from reaching operational stages. India’s climate leadership grants it geopolitical leverage, but also places a responsibility to ensure its green growth is inclusive, sustainable, and replicable. To cement this role, India is engaging in bilateral climate pacts, technology-sharing collaborations, and south-south cooperation models aimed at aligning financial mechanisms and technological exchange with its climate action agenda. Phasing Down Coal: A Just Path Forward Coal continues to dominate India’s energy mix, accounting for around 70 percent of electricity generation. States such as Jharkhand, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh remain economically dependent on coal-based industries. However, India is making strategic efforts to transition away from coal. India ranks fourth globally in repurposing decommissioned coal mines into renewable energy hubs. Jharkhand has pioneered state-level just transition planning by establishing a dedicated task force focused on sustainable development in coal districts. In addition to renewable energy development, it is essential to invest in education, health, and social safety nets in coal-dependent regions to ensure long-term resilience and prevent socioeconomic displacement. Renewable Energy and Employment Dynamics India has made rapid progress in expanding renewable energy. Solar installations exceeded 110 GW, while the wind capacity crossed 50 GW in early 2025, making India the fourth-largest wind energy producer globally. Government projections suggest that up to 35 million green jobs could be created by 2047. However, a considerable skill gap persists. Though initiatives like women-led solar technician training in rural areas have shown promise, they remain small-scale and underfunded. Bridging this skill gap will require integrated efforts from vocational institutions, state governments, and the private sector, alongside stronger labor rights to safeguard new green jobs. Financing the Transition India’s net-zero goals by 2070 require $10–19 trillion in climate finance. While domestic institutions such as the Reserve Bank of India and SEBI are introducing green bond frameworks, international financial assistance remains critical. In 2025, climate finance flows from developed nations continue to fall short of the $100 billion annual commitment under the Paris Agreement. Innovative financial instruments like climate-resilient development bonds and blended finance models are being explored to mobilize private sector investments and de-risk climate-related infrastructure. Steel and Industrial Decarbonization India’s steel production is expanding rapidly and is expected to reach over 330 million metric tons by 2030. However, the planned capacity remains heavily coal-dependent. Experts argue that India must use this window of opportunity to invest in cleaner alternatives such as hydrogen-based direct reduced iron, electric arc furnaces, and carbon capture and storage. Strategic public-private partnerships can drive innovation in low-carbon technologies, while industrial policy reforms can incentivize greener practices across supply chains. Gender and Social Inclusion Women constitute less than 11 percent of India’s renewable energy workforce, with even lower representation in technical roles. Programs targeting women entrepreneurs in solar microgrids and clean cooking are showing early success, but require scaling through national-level support. A gender-sensitive just transition must recognize and address structural inequalities in access to land, finance, education, and technology for women and marginalized communities. Public Awareness and Political Will A 2025 national survey found that only 64 percent of respondents see climate change as a major concern, down from 78 percent in 2022. However, a majority still believe that renewable energy will lead to better air quality and job creation. Civic education, climate literacy programs in schools, and local government engagement are critical to enhancing public understanding and building long-term political momentum for climate action. Conclusion: The Path Forward India's climate and energy future in 2025 is shaped by powerful contradictions. While renewables are expanding and policy frameworks are evolving, coal remains dominant, and many workers and communities’ risk being left behind. A just transition offers a roadmap to resolve this contradiction—through inclusive planning, investment in human capital, decentralized energy models, and equitable financing. Only through sustained political commitment, inter-sectoral collaboration, and the empowerment of vulnerable groups can India build a truly just, resilient, and climate-compatible future.