- EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 28/Jun 00:17

Latvia’s Renewed Conscription Turns Two – Analysis

By Māris Andžāns (FPRI) -- July 1, 2025, marks two years since the first conscripts began their 11-month service under Latvia’s renewed conscription system, known as the National Defence Service. Contrary to what Latvia’s Ministry of Defence claimed back in 2017, the return of conscription has neither weakened nor destroyed the National Armed Forces and the National Guard. The first two years have gone smoothly, though at a slow pace. The road ahead may encounter challenges due to rising conscription numbers and decreasing public support. The Journey from Abolishing to Renewing Conscription Latvia’s parliament unanimously voted to abolish conscription in 2006 (effective 2007). Latvia had recently joined NATO, and the collective defense clause of NATO’s founding treaty seemed especially reassuring. The National Armed Forces shifted their focus from territorial defense to emphasizing international missions and operations. The issue of reinstating conscription occasionally arose in defense debates, particularly after Russia began its aggression against Ukraine in 2014. However, policymakers in the defense sector held unfavorable views on reintroducing conscription. In 2017, the Latvian Defence Ministry went so far as to argue that “[t]he restoration of conscription in the current situation would perfectly serve Russia’s purpose, namely, the professional service and the National Guard would be significantly weakened and even destroyed…” At that time, public opinion was also divided because conscription was still associated with the Soviet system, which was notorious for its violence against conscripts. Furthermore, young people typically saw little value in the service and were hesitant to interrupt their careers. In this context, Latvia chose to continue supplementing its professional armed forces with the volunteer National Guard and Youth Guard, and to complement them with National Defence Education in schools. Fast forward to the beginning of 2022, and there were more than 800 vacancies in the National Armed Forces. However, it was Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that provided the decisive impetus for change. Latvia’s Minister of Defence announced a proposal to reinstate conscription in July 2022. After a longer-than-expected process, two-thirds of the members of parliament voted to support its reintroduction in April 2023. Thus, Latvia became the last country among its Baltic and Nordic counterparts to restore conscription (Iceland has no armed forces and thus no conscription). The First Two Years The National Defence Service requires male citizens aged 18 to 27 to serve in military or civilian roles, while allowing women to volunteer. The military option includes three versions: 11 months of “regular” service, five years in the National Guard, and a reserve officer program for students, which also lasts five years. The civilian or alternative service consists of 11 months working in a Latvian defense sector institution, dealing with issues related to defense real estate, procurement, logistics, geospatial information, or in the Latvian War Museum. Latvia’s conscription system, which emphasizes volunteerism, is one of the most generous systems of its kind. Volunteers receive a higher monthly allowance of 600 euros, compared to 300 euros for the drafted conscripts; everyone also receives 1,100 euros at the end of their term. There were four intakes during the first two years: July 2023, January 2024, July 2024, and January 2025. A total of 1,076 conscripts began their service, including 13 female soldiers. The vast majority of conscript soldiers volunteered, with only 64 being drafted compulsorily so far during the third and fourth intakes. The service completion rate for the first three intakes was 95% (data from the Ministry of Defence of Latvia, June 6 and 13, 2025). So far, the National Defence Service has avoided major scandals. A grassroots initiative launched in 2022, aiming to make conscription entirely voluntary, gained more than 13 thousand signatures but failed to gain traction. Most concerns and misunderstandings now are related to individuals who are subject to conscription but unwilling to serve (interview at the Ministry of Defence of Latvia, May 21, 2025). However, Latvia’s Defence Ministry declined to share data on conscript polling that could offer a more comprehensive perspective, noting that “the information provided in the questionnaires is taken into account in improving the [National Defence Service]” (June 13, 2025). A positive aspect of the conscript system is the significant number of conscripts who opt to remain in the National Armed Forces as contract soldiers. To date, 271 conscripts have decided to continue their careers as professional soldiers (data from the Ministry of Defence of Latvia, June 6 and 13, 2025). Shifting Public Opinion For four consecutive years (2022–2025), the Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga and Riga Stradins University conducted polls on Latvian views on conscription (n = 4021). Each of the nationally representative polls used the same question: “Do you consider that Latvia needs conscript service?” The first three polls employed face-to-face interviews, whereas the latest, conducted in April 2025, utilized computer-assisted web interviewing. Public support for conscription increased significantly from 2022 to 2023, from 44.7% to 61.1%, and more gradually from 2023 to 2024, from 61.1% to 64%. However, support declined in 2025, from 64% to 53.8%. The trend mirrored those with unfavorable views. Negative opinions fell from 42.2% in 2022 to 29.2% in 2023 and further to 27.1% in 2024 but rose to 39.4% in 2025. Despite the overall decline in support, favorable views among younger people (ages 18–24) who are subject to conscription have increased. Whereas this age group was the most skeptical in previous polls, in 2025, 54.7% of younger individuals favored conscription. As with most security issues, this one also indicated a significant gap between Latvian and Russian speakers. While 70.7% of Latvian speakers were supportive and only 23.5% were not, among Russian speakers, the tables were turned—only 23.7% supported conscription in Latvia, while 67.5% did not. Among Latvian speakers, the support level in 2025 was comparable to that of 2023–2024, while among...