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Artificial Intelligence: A Tool That Is Reshaping Geopolitics – Analysis

In recent years, following the end of the COVID-19 crisis, the term artificial intelligence (AI) has become omnipresent in public discourse. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, artificial intelligence is “the capability of computer systems or algorithms to imitate intelligent human behavior.” This emerging phenomenon is receiving great attention. In truth, it is neither a new concept nor a new occurrence, as AI began gradually developing in 1956 with a scientific conference in Dartmouth. Since then, AI has experienced both advances and setbacks, having been most utilized in fields such as the military, medicine, robotics, and education. Over time, artificial intelligence has significantly advanced. Today, ordinary people around the world can use basic smart computer models, but there is little doubt that the centers of global power—national governments, intelligence agencies, and various organizations—possess models that are ten or more years ahead of what is publicly available. An Indispensable Tool of Our Time Many analysts warn that artificial intelligence will replace and subordinate human beings. This is a highly debatable claim, as AI is not some superior “divine” entity, but rather a technology created by flesh-and-blood humans with all their imperfections. Similarly, when the Industrial Revolution emerged in the 18th century, many feared machines would replace humans. That did not happen. It is unlikely AI will do so either. However, it is evident that individuals who do not use AI tools will be unable to keep up with those who do. The same applies to the international political arena. States, multilateral organizations, and movements that utilize AI will remain competitive in the political arena, while those that do not will stagnate and decline. According to S&P Global, between 2013 and 2023, 5,509 AI companies were founded in the United States, with total private investments reaching approximately $335.2 billion. During the same period, China saw the establishment of 1,446 AI companies, with private investments amounting to about $103.7 billion. Political Leaders Recognize a New Weapon Russian President Vladimir Putin stated back in 2017: “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia but for all of humanity.” He added that AI carries enormous opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to foresee, noting that whoever becomes the leader in this field will become the ruler of the world. In December 2017, Donald Trump signed a new National Security Strategy emphasizing the importance of artificial intelligence for the national security and economic development of the United States. The strategy states that “continued American leadership in artificial intelligence is of utmost importance for preserving the economic and national security of the United States.” During the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that China must accelerate achieving a high level of scientific and technological self-reliance and improvement, clearly referring to AI. A Game-Changer in Geopolitics Artificial intelligence is a tool reshaping geopolitics on a multidimensional level. This is not a conventional change, but a revolutionary one. AI could significantly alter the way we understand international relations and diplomacy today. The sooner policymakers realize this, the better. Although diplomacy, as an interdisciplinary field, belongs to the social sciences and humanities (a blend of history, politics, law, sociology, and communication), AI introduces mathematical models into diplomacy. This could be described as the “technologization of diplomacy.” In geopolitical terms, AI’s use is most important in two interconnected areas: diplomacy and national security. Put simply, AI is a crucial diplomatic and military-security tool. A Modern Diplomatic Instrument Artificial intelligence is transforming the conduct of bilateral and multilateral relations. National governments and leading commissions in organizations such as the UN, EU, and BRICS are actively using smart technology—from basic real-time translations to the creation of complex analyses. Diplomats can communicate more easily with their colleagues thanks to AI, receiving instant translations as well as real-time suggestions from virtual assistants. AI can facilitate diplomatic negotiations between two or more countries by analyzing historical relationships, proposing new strategies for improving relations, and offering guidance on negotiation styles. Diplomats and politicians are often unimaginative and unable to grasp new ideas. However, many of today’s political disputes also existed in the past. AI can compare historical and current contexts and offer constructive proposals. Beyond negotiation content, outcomes are influenced by style. If the style is wrong (too assertive or too timid), the outcome may be negative even if the idea itself is good. Based on available data (public opinion, military deployments, leaders’ behavior), AI programs can predict the early onset of crises and wars. AI can recommend which countries should receive peacekeeping missions before a crisis erupts or where peacekeepers should be withdrawn. Similarly, governments can use computer models to present diplomatic negotiations and agreements to the public in a more acceptable way to ensure support. Politics is about perception, and political results can often be interpreted both as victories and defeats. A Military-Security Tool Artificial intelligence is becoming a key military tool for many powerful states and organizations. The United States uses AI to develop autonomous drones, defend against cyberattacks, and analyze military intelligence. China applies AI in mass surveillance systems, facial recognition, and unmanned technology. Russia uses AI for cyber defense, automating military systems such as drones, analyzing satellite and intelligence data, and electronic warfare. Israel employs AI in several key military systems, the most famous being the “Iron Dome.” AI helps rapidly detect and intercept threats such as rockets and mortar shells. NATO uses AI to forecast conflicts, protect communication networks, manage logistics, and optimize military operations. All mentioned countries also use AI for cyber warfare (targeting infrastructure of other nations and spreading propaganda) and to protect against foreign cyberattacks. Organizations like the U.S. DARPA and China’s AI Institute are developing advanced military systems. The use of AI can offer advantages on the battlefield but also increases the risk of conflict escalation. Therefore, there is a growing need for international rules and oversight on AI in the military sector. The Race to Develop AI for Geopolitical Purposes All significant global powers have realized that a race is underway to develop artificial intelligence for political purposes. American companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are developing computer models to help the U.S. maintain its status as the world’s most powerful country and to preserve organizations such as NATO, the G7, OAS, IMF, and the World Bank. The Chinese are using AI to advance their Belt and Road Initiative. The Digital Silk Road accompanies this initiative, focusing on the development of digital infrastructure, technology, and internet networks wherever the Belt and Road passes (Asia, Africa, Europe). China aims to establish itself as the world’s new technological leader. Russia primarily develops AI tools for propaganda purposes, subtly reshaping the narrative that is unfavorable to them in parts of the world (the EU and the U.S.). The European Union seeks to position itself as a leader in ethical AI use, promoting a global framework for moral application. BRICS countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa place less emphasis on ethics, using AI mainly to develop their economies and redefine global power structures that limit their growth. Conclusion Thanks to the development of advanced...