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Trump’s European Revolution – Analysis

By Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard  Liberty, insecurity, unpredictability “We are in the process of a second American revolution.” So claimed Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation. The Trumpian think-tank’s policy ideas—on everything from education and migration to healthcare and human rights—have helped to shape the seismic change that has upended American politics. But Trump’s revolution, like previous ones before it, is not simply about changing policies and institutions, but about the identity of the country itself. In just six months, the US has shifted from championing liberal democracy to promoting illiberalism and economic protectionism. This revolutionary transformation reaches far beyond the nation’s borders. In that sense, it is not just an American revolution. It is reshaping Europe, too. Such is the main finding of a major international opinion poll commissioned by ECFR and conducted in May 2025 in 12 European countries, with an overall sample of 16,440 respondents (full methodology below). This paper reports the results of the study, and buttresses them with the political observations and analysis of its authors. In short: revolutionary change in America signals the collapse of assumptions that have undergirded European security for decades. Reliance on American guarantees, NATO as an alliance of liberal democracies, the promotion of free trade and a taboo against aggressive nationalism—it is all falling away. The new reality is a crisis of the alliance itself, the growing threat of a global trade war and the looming prospect of American troop withdrawal from Europe. And, as ECFR’s polling shows, this in turn is transforming Europe’s political and geopolitical identity. First, the nature of its political parties is changing. Europe’s far-right forcesare transforming from self-styled defenders of national sovereignty into the continental vanguard of a transnational revolutionary movement—aligning themselves with Trump’s bid to remake global order. At the same time, several mainstream parties (supposedly more internationalist) appear to be recasting themselves as the new sovereigntists, defenders of national dignity against ideological interference from Washington. Second, the EU, which was once a peace project, is becoming a war project—a process triggered by Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and that is now accelerating. Significant shares of most populations polled fear worsening conflict, and favour increased defence spending. Third, like many other revolutions, Trump’s European one is exposing paradoxical ideas and the tensions between them. ECFR’s polling shows that: Europeans are sceptical about Trump, but also relatively relaxed about the reliability of American security guarantees and post-Trump transatlantic relations. They are doubtful about their continent’s ability to stand on its own two feet in defence matters, but also convinced that their governments should part with American policy on Ukraine. Our thesis is that Europeans’ apparently sanguine expectations about the future of the transatlantic relationship are rooted not in trust in American benevolence, but rather mistrust of their continent’s own capabilities. And that their public support for Ukraine is better explained as an emergency policy to replace American boots-on-the-ground in Europe with the fighting power of the Ukrainian army than as pure solidarity with the victims of Russian aggression. This report delves into all these aspects of Trump’s European revolution. We hold these truths to be self-evident Europeans generally have no illusions about Trump. The prevailing view in the countries polled—except for Hungary and Romania—is that his election is a bad thing for American citizens, respondents’ own countries and peace in the world. Absolute majorities in half of the countries—Denmark, Germany, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland and the UK—hold a negative view of Trump on all three accounts. A mere 12% of Brits believe Trump’s election is good for their country. Europeans everywhere, even in more Trump-sympathetic Hungary and Romania, have become more pessimistic about his presidency since his election win. Compared with the poll ECFR conducted in November 2024, there has been a generalised move in this direction. For example, in the immediate aftermath of the US presidential vote most Poles were optimistic about the returning Trump’s significance for American citizens and their own country, and Estonians on balance thought his looming presidency positive for his own country and the world. No longer. Europeans now are not just pessimistic about Trump, but also critical of his performance so far. The prevailing view among respondents in almost every country is that he has been doing a bad job when it comes to competing against China on the world stage, ending the war in Ukraine and strengthening the American economy. Hungarians, Romanians and Poles are alone among our national samples in returning a mostly positive assessment of his economic policies. Hungarians are isolated in appreciating his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. No European country sees his China record so far as positive. Perceptions of the US political system have suffered too. Absolute majorities in France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain believe it is broken. Back in January 2024, the last time ECFR polled on this question, this was only true of France and Portugal. Meanwhile Hungary and Romania are the only countries polled where the view of America has improved. Who are our friends? But country-level data tell only one part of the story, with some of the most radical changes happening within national party electorates. Chairman Mao Zedong once wrote: “Who are our enemies? Who are our friends? This is a question of the first importance for the revolution.” Likewise, Trump’s revolution has changed the American government’s understanding of who its enemies and friends are in Europe. Relatedly, his return to power has driven an outbreak of political cross-dressing on the continent. Supporters of populist parties no longer need to be simply against the status-quo; they can now be in favour of the Trumpian counter-project. And those who back mainstream parties no longer need to be simply for that status-quo; they can now draw impetus from being defenders of national and European sovereignty against Trump. The split within Europe between traditionally Atlanticist and more anti-American countries matters less, eclipsed by that between pro- and anti-Trump political forces. This is best seen in how electorates of different parties perceive the US and EU political systems. ECFR’s poll and comparisons with past results capture that reconfiguration of European political identities in action. The most important change...