Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 29/12/2024 23:59

Way Out Of The Bangladesh Crisis – OpEd

During Sheikh Hasina’s long stint in power, an intense anti-India feeling had seeped into the Bangladeshi society over issues like; BSF firings along the Indo-Bangladesh border, her inability to ink the Teesta river water sharing pact with India, the Citizenship Amendment Act of 2019 which gave New Delhi the geopolitical leverage over vulnerable populations in India’s neighborhood, the higher prices for electricity supplied by Adani’s Godda power plant, Delhi’s unwavering support to her government despite its rising unpopularity and unchecked authoritarianism, and finally, India opening the sluice gates of the Dumboor Dam on the Gumti River without prior warning to the Bangladeshi authorities, which wrecked havoc in certain parts of eastern Bangladesh in August this year, proved to be the last straw that cracked the very foundation of bilateral relations, even when India showed that the floods were caused by unprecedented rains in the contiguous areas of India and eastern Bangladesh, only to be rebuffed by the leadership of the student’s movement. New Delhi may not have reached out energetically to contacts across the socio-political spectrum, which is why the conflict between the two countries is now taking an ominous turn, with reports of Indian security forces beefing up the border defenses, and Bangladesh deploying Turkish drones to keep vigil over its borders with Meghalaya and Tripura.  The growing salience of Islamist parties will have detrimental effects on the policies of the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, and that does not bode well for Indo-Bangladesh relations. Then there are advisers to Yunus who are rabidly anti-India. Lt. Gen. (retd) Jahangir Alam Chowdhury’s animosity towards India is well-known since his days as Director General of Bangladesh Rifles, and Mohammad Nashid Islam who is holding multiple portfolios, including I&B. However, a mature India must handle the fraying relationship with a smaller and suspicious neighbor with profound calmness, unperturbed by provocations in words and deeds; else there is a risk of alienating Bangladesh. Both countries must resist the temptations of playing communal politics for domestic political interests which often influence foreign policies, and vitiate neighborly ties. Bangladesh must not forget that it is surrounded by India on three sides, and Feni - a small coastal district located along the Dhaka-Chittagong transportation corridor - is bordered by India to the north and the Bay of Bengal to the south. The vulnerability of Feni puts Chittagong at a great risk, where Bangladesh has its primary sea port. Bangladesh is also heavily dependent on India for trade and river waters with both countries sharing 54 trans-boundary rivers. India too needs Dhaka’s co-operation to keep Pakistan at bay, while preventing the revival of Northeastern militancy, and countering Chinese designs in the Bay of Bengal. Only with a friendly Bangladesh can the Northeast take advantage of India’s SAGAR policy, for Bangladesh can serve as the region’s ‘maritime gateway’. Additionally, Bangladesh is vital for India’s connectivity with the Northeast in case of security-related contingencies in the strategic Siliguri Corridor. Bangladesh unrest has delayed execution of some vital Indian projects. The 1.9 km long ‘Maitri Setu’ or ‘Friendship Bridge’ over the Feni river built by India at a cost of Rs 133 crores, connecting Sabroom in southern Tripura with Ramgarh in Bangladesh, is ready for operation but cannot be utilized yet due to the unrest. The bridge would be the gateway for the NE region to various parts of the world through the Chittagong port, located just 72 kms from southern Tripura. Besides the ‘Maitri Setu,’ there are other Indian projects which have hit a snag in view of the burgeoning turmoil. The Bangladeshi garment industry has been hit severely due to the escalating tensions, while the medical tourism industry of Bengal and Tripura has suffered setbacks owing to India’s own reactions against anti-minority atrocities in the neighboring country. The business communities of both countries must press their respective governments to resume normal relations. Under their pressure, Indian and Bangladeshi authorities have been forced to keep open the largest land port between the two countries connecting Petrapole in India with Benepole in Bangladesh. The trading class in Bangladesh, dependent on India for various goods and services, must further push the Yunus government to immediately restore confidence among the minorities by reinforcing the safeguards enshrined in the Bangladeshi constitution for all its citizens. Initiatives to protect religious sites, prosecute perpetrators of communal violence, and transparently address minority grievances, are vital to maintaining communal amity. These measures are crucial not only to reassure minorities, but also to burnish the country’s credentials as a nation capable of managing its own internal affairs. Equally important is the role of the media in creating an atmosphere of mutual respect, tolerance, and understanding. Indians tend to see the ouster of Sheikh Hasina as a “Pakistan-US” plot aimed at eroding Indian presence in Bangladesh, and curbing China’s growing footprint in the region. When Bangladesh eased visa rules for the Pakistanis, and established shipping trade between Chittagong and Karachi for the first time since 1971, and Mahfuz Alam – a student leader and Yunus’ advisor who has called for the inclusion of Assam, Bengal, and Tripura in Bangladesh – was feted by Yunus at the Clinton Global Initiative as the mastermind behind the July Movement, on the sidelines of the UNGA in September this year, India watched with utter dismay the rekindling of the “US-Pak axis” against India. Knowing full well that Pakistani spymasters had never taken their feet off the pedal in Bangladesh, the US fell back on its Cold War ally to hold on to a country that it sees as a vital bridge to South and Southeast Asia. Veteran diplomats like Ajay Bisaria have opined that ‘India needs to encourage international pressure on Bangladesh.’ But ‘international pressure’ (read ‘pressure from the Western countries’) on the new regime in Dhaka is hardly forthcoming, since the US itself was behind the students movement which ousted Hasina, and installed the Yunus-led interim government.  Now that India-China relations are back on track, it would not be an exaggeration to say that, both the countries which have an abiding interest in the stability of Bangladesh, could co-operate and pile pressure on the Yunus government for restoring normalcy in the country. Both India and China attach great importance to peace and security in Bangladesh for the unhindered execution of their infrastructure projects, and also for the legitimate utilization of their financial assistance to Dhaka. Of the country’s total external debt of $ 103.8 billion, Dhaka owes $ 6.1 billion to China, and over $ 1 billion to India. Beijing has enormous clout over Pakistan. Given the newfound bonhomie, India is now in a position to nudge Beijing to use its clout with the Pakistanis to cool things down in Bangladesh. During his recently concluded visit to Beijing, India’s Special Representative Ajit Doval may have already discussed Bangladesh with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi.