Why Does Bangladesh Need To Balance With India And China?

Why Does Bangladesh Need To Balance With India And China? – OpEd

On January 7th of this year, Awami league came to power for the fifth time with Sheikh Hasina as the head of government. Within six months of formation, the prime minister has already visited India which will be followed by her upcoming trip to China. The time difference between these two visits is only two weeks. Awami league leaders see these visits as 'diplomacy of balance.’ Situated at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, Bangladesh's geopolitical significance has grown exponentially in recent years, driven by economic development, and regional dynamics. But the country stands at the crossroads of two of its powerful neighbors: India and China. Bangladesh’s geographic location and historical ties with these giants present both opportunities and challenges. As the country charts its course in a rapidly changing global landscape, it must cautiously manage its relationships with both India and China to secure its interests while fostering regional stability. Ties with India Bangladesh’s relationship with India is deeply rooted in history and culture. India played a crucial role in Bangladesh's liberation war in 1971, providing military and moral support. India still remains one of Bangladesh's largest trading partners, with bilateral trade reaching $15 billion in recent years. However, the relationship has not been without its tensions. Issues such as the sharing of river waters, border security, and trade imbalances have occasionally strained ties. There’s is a perception among some in Bangladesh that India’s influence can be overbearing, leading to concerns about sovereignty and independence which recently flared up again after the interstate railway agreement between the countries was announced. Last month during HPM’s visit to India, 10 agreements and memorandum of understandings (MoUs) were signed between the two countries. During this visit, among these, seven are new and three are renewed. The railway agreement was the most significant one among them. This trip came just after HPM partaking in the oath taking ceremony of Narendra Modi, who was elected as prime minister for the third time in a row. Now, neighboring India can use Bangladesh’s land to carry goods and passengers through rail way transit while Bangladesh finally gets to reach its goods and business to Nepal, Bhutan and India through Indian rail ways, according to the newly announced railway connectivity MoU. Unfortunately, issues like the Teesta water sharing agreement and the renewal of the Ganges water sharing agreement are still left with uncertainty. Although PM Modi has said a technical team will soon visit Bangladesh to discuss conservation and management of Teesta river, it needs to be mentioned that this only comes at the backdrop amid China’s 2020 proposal of major dredging work on the river and building reservoirs and embankments. The project has been on hold by Bangladesh for the past four years and definitely India’s stake at Teesta river is one reason of it. China’s Growing Influence In contrast, China’s relationship with Bangladesh is relatively recent but rapidly expanding. Over the past decade, China has emerged as Bangladesh's largest trading partner while investing heavily in infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Hasina’s next visit to China on July 8-11 is likely to take this bilateral cooperation to the next step. Foreign secretary Masoud bin Momen noted that 8 to 10 MoUs are being worked on between the two sides during the visit, of which 5 to 6 will be signed. He also said that the main focus of the prime minister's visit to Beijing will be trade and economy. Although it’s true that Chinese investments in ports, roads, and power plants have been instrumental in propelling Bangladesh’s economic growth but there are also concerns about Bangladesh potentially becoming a victim of China’s “debt trap.” The Need for Balance Given the geopolitical dynamics, few countries face the delicate balancing act that Bangladesh does between India and China. India and China are also neighbors who don’t see eye to eye on most issues due to their problematic relationship. Managing the asymmetry in power between these two countries will requires careful diplomacy and strategic foresight on Bangladesh’s side. Striking a balance is crucial to avoid over-reliance on either country, which could lead to undue influence and potential compromises on national interests. Looking ahead, maintaining strategic autonomy should be at the core of Bangladesh’s foreign policy. While it’s important to keep India at arm’s length, addressing contentious issues such as the Teesta River dispute, the country should also leverage Chinese investments for its development needs considering its upcoming LDC graduation in 2026. Bangladesh's strategic priorities should also focus on diversifying its economic partnerships and strengthening institutional capacities in diplomacy, trade, and security. Potentiality of ties with other regional powers, such as Japan and South Korea, and fostering relations can provide Bangladesh with a broader support base outside of India and China. This can enhance Bangladesh’s bargaining power and reduce the risks associated with over-reliance on any single country. Lastly, in addition to balancing external relations, Bangladesh must focus on enhancing its internal economic resilience. Investing in education, healthcare, and technology can foster human capital development and drive sustainable economic growth. Its high time for the developing country to understand that its economic growth can’t be sustained if it doesn’t address its innate economic vulnerabilities