- NEWSDAY.CO.TT - A la Une - Hier 09:37

Iran conflict and the BRICS challenge

TONYA KERR ON JUNE 20-21, the US launched airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, in a high-stakes escalation following (a report of) attacks on US military bases in Iraq and Syria by alleged Iranian-backed proxy militias, including Hezbollah and other groups. (The US has publicly stated the strikes were intended to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.) The strikes, co-ordinated with Israeli intelligence and military assets, marks the first direct US assault on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and has raised global concerns of an extended regional conflict. While the military confrontation remains centred in the Middle East, it is already reverberating through the global economy, diplomatic circles, and energy markets. This deepening crisis could accelerate a strategic power shift, particularly if BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and new member Iran) leverage the situation to weaken US global dominance. A regional war with global stakes Unlike past US interventions in the Middle East, this conflict features direct strikes on sovereign Iranian territory, prompting fears of uncontrolled retaliation. Iran’s government has vowed a “severe and strategic response,” while groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and various Iraqi Shia militias have signalled readiness to escalate regional operations. Meanwhile, Russia and China have condemned the strikes without offering direct military support. Both have long-standing military and economic ties with Iran and are expected to continue indirect support through arms sales, intelligence sharing, and energy co-operation. Israel, a key US ally, has reinforced its defence posture. NATO countries have expressed support for Israel’s right to defend itself, though divisions remain, with Turkey and some EU members urging restraint. The result is a fractured Western response as global power dynamics evolve. The BRICS factor: A strategic opening? The BRICS alliance has steadily expanded both its membership and its ambitions. Iran, along with Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE, officially joined the bloc on January 1, 2024. The group has been openly developing alternative financial systems, increasing non-dollar trade, and strengthening economic ties within the Global South. According to regional analysts, the Iran conflict may serve BRICS’s broader strategic aims in several ways: • Economic leverage: China continues to trade Iranian oil in yuan, undermining US dollar dominance in energy markets. • Global distraction: US military focus on Iran could reduce pressure on Russia in Ukraine and allow China more manoeuvrability in the Taiwan Strait. • Diplomatic advantage: BRICS frames the situation as a case of Western aggression, appealing to non-aligned countries and further isolating US influence. This is a classic case of asymmetric warfare. BRICS doesn’t need to confront the US directly. It just needs to keep America entangled in another prolonged conflict. Economic fallout for small nations like TT While TT is geographically distant from the Middle East, it is not immune to the conflict’s economic ripple effects. Experts warn of both risks and opportunities. Key risks: • Oil and gas volatility: Price spikes benefit exporters short-term but create instability and possible disruptions in global shipping routes, especially in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. • Inflation pressure: Rising fuel prices may increase the cost of food and consumer goods. • Supply chain disruption: Houthi naval threats and Panama Canal droughts may delay imported goods. Possible opportunities: • Increased LNG demand: If Iranian energy exports are sanctioned or disrupted, global buyers may look to TT as a more stable supplier. • Strategic neutrality: TT’s lack of alignment with major powers may shield it from direct fallout and allow for flexible diplomacy. Regional security watch: Venezuela and beyond TT’s proximity to Venezuela adds another layer of complexity. Caracas has deepened its partnerships with Iran and Russia and may play a more visible role in future BRICS realignments. If the US lifts or modifies sanctions on Venezuelan oil to replace lost Iranian output, TT-Venezuela cross-border gas projects could benefit. However, instability in Venezuela remains a persistent risk. Global realignment in progress As the war clouds deepen, the United Nations has called for urgent de-escalation, though progress is unlikely given Russian and Chinese veto power in the Security Council. Oil prices have surged, travel advisories are expanding, and governments worldwide are bracing for what could be a lengthy, destabilising conflict. If the US becomes entangled in a drawn-out confrontation, its diplomatic and economic bandwidth could shrink, giving BRICS the space to reshape financial rules, trade routes, and political alliances. TT: What should be done Though no official statement has been made by the government, it is best to take proactive measures: • Stockpile essential goods to offset possible shipping delays. • Diversify trade partners, especially across Latin America and Asia. • Monitor Venezuelan activity, particularly as energy politics evolve. • Stabilise domestic fuel and food subsidies to buffer inflation. What began as a regional military flare-up now poses a serious test of the post-World War II global order. Whether the US retains its dominant role or BRICS emerges as a viable alternative depends not just on missiles and markets, but on how countries like TT position themselves amid uncertainty. In this emerging multipolar world, neutral, well-prepared nations may prove the most resilient. The post Iran conflict and the BRICS challenge appeared first on Trinidad and Tobago Newsday.