- NEWSDAY.CO.TT - A la Une - 03/Aug 06:13

The moving finger writes…

On August 2, 1990, 35 years ago yesterday, Iraq, under the rule of Saddam Hussein, sent 100,000 troops into the Gulf state of Kuwait. It was the latest episode in a saga of territorial conflicts between the two countries; only, that time, it spiralled out of control, led to western intervention and set Middle East relations at the heart of world affairs – not for the first time, but the effects have compounded. It’s useful to think of world affairs as a knitted garment – you pull one stitch and the whole thing begins to unravel. Like Putin with Ukraine, Saddam considered Kuwait Iraqi territory – they once were a politico-geographical entity. He therefore had no scruples about land-grabbing after militarily-weaker Kuwait rejected Iraqi claims on its oil assets. The international community roundly condemned the invasion and when a withdrawal deadline expired the UN put together a large coalition – the largest since WWII – to oust Iraq. Operation Desert Storm (1991) followed Operation Desert Shield (August 1990), but they were costly. Tens of thousands of Kuwaiti and Iraqi civilians died, and even more military personnel. TV news carried images of the deliberate environmental damage Iraqi forces let loose on Kuwait as they retreated just six months later. They set fire to hundreds of oil wells that burned for nearly a year. The fires were hard to extinguish because of landmines that surrounded them. To hamper the allied troops coming ashore in Kuwait, Iraq infamously dispelled millions of tons of crude oil into the Persian Gulf. It was the biggest oil spill to date. The use of chemical weapons was unproven at that time, but widely believed to be part of Iraq’s war arsenal. Before going to Israel in 1997 to make a series of BBC programmes about the 50th anniversary (1998) of the establishment of the Jewish state, I had to endure rigorous wartime training, including learning about chemical warfare. Everyone was alert to the possible random deployment of chemical weapons against Israel, the common enemy. Saddam’s overplaying his hand and invading Kuwait led to the game-changing Gulf War, 9/11, the Global War on Terror, Saudi military prominence, its present heightened rivalry with Iran, the current highly explosive regional situation and the power rebalancing that has occurred. The US had deployed its ground troops against Iraqi forces in Kuwait from bases in Saudi Arabia, which was very contentious because Islam’s holiest places are in Saudi Arabia. When the Gulf War followed and the number of US troops stationed on Saudi soil doubled, dissent grew. Osama bin Laden (a Saudi) wanted them gone and an end to the effrontery. It may have been a significant reason for the 9/11 attacks on US soil. Apart from the destruction of Iraq itself by allied intervention in the ensuing Gulf War and War on Terror, a power vacuum appeared once Saddam was toppled in 2003. In a weak Iraq, all the sectarian division he had controlled exploded. In addition, the US and Britain lost a lot of credibility and international respect over the non-existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which was the main reason given for the War on Terror. The US president and UK PM wanted that war, but millions of people worldwide opposed it. In the void left by western embarrassment, Russian and Chinese influence gained pace. Instability in the region intensified further with the ending of allied occupation of Iraq in 2011 and the US abandoning Afghanistan in 2021. Saudi Arabia asserted itself, filling the power vacuum and pitting itself against Iran in supporting Syrian and anti-Houthi rebels. Iran funded Hamas (which attacked Israel and led to the Gaza War), Hezbollah (in Lebanon) and the Houthis (in Yemen). Naturally, each conflict between states depends on the players. World history is made by powerful leaders, often with Trump-size egos, disrupting the balance of power. In the 1990s Syria, Iraq, Libya and Egypt were the big Arab powers, led by dictators. Saddam’s Kuwait invasion changed that. Libya and Egypt were quelled when Gaddafi and Mubarak were overthrown in the Arab Spring revolts that arose in the post-Kuwait-invasion upheaval. Syria’s Assad benefited from Russian support to hang on till 2024. We are living history every day and unconsciously knitting the story together as we go. We have no pattern and we cannot see how each decision, each action shapes our possibly undesirable future. Nobody would believe that the horror of Gaza, the deliberate and inhumane starvation of two million people, the murder of over 60,000 people, could happen and be tolerated in 2025. We learn nothing from what went before. The War on Terror was supposed to eliminate terrorism for good. Prime Minister Netanyahu claims only the destruction of Hamas will end the Gaza war. But there will be no “total victory,” only a long and painful unravelling. The post The moving finger writes… appeared first on Trinidad and Tobago Newsday.