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Pakistan: Terror Thrives In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – Analysis

By Tushar Ranjan Mohanty On February 23, 2025, Security Forces (SFs) killed seven Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists in two separate operations carried out in Daraban and Maddi areas of Dera Ismail Khan District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). On February 21, 2025, six TTP terrorists were killed after SFs carried out an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in the Karak District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). On February 17, 2025, SFs killed 30 terrorists during an IBO in Sararogha area of South Waziristan District, KP. A statement issued on February 18 from the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) added that sanitisation operations were being conducted to eliminate any other terrorists found in the area. On February 17, 2025, four soldiers were killed and five sustained injuries when the convoy of the Commandant of the Kurram Militia, Frontier Corps, was ambushed by unidentified armed attackers in the Manduri area of Kurram District, KP. On February 13, 2025, five terrorists including 'commander' Kharji Shah Gul alias Rohani were killed during an IBO conducted by SFs in the Kulachi area of Dera Ismail Khan District, KP. On February 13, 2025, five terrorists were killed in an exchange of fire during IBOs in the Dosali and Tappi areas of North Waziristan District, KP. On February 12, 2025, at least five terrorists were killed in SF's projectile strike, quadcopter, in Draban area of Dera Ismail Khan District in KP. On February 10, 2025, SFs killed five TTP terrorists during a late-night operation in Mir Kakam Banda area of Banda Daud Shah town in Karak District of KP. On February 6, 2025, at least 12 terrorists and one Army soldier were killed in an IBO in the Hassan Khel area of North Waziristan District, KP. On February 4, 2025, at least five SF personnel were killed while another six sustained injuries in a militant attack on the Raghzai security post in the Shaktoi area of North Waziristan District, KP. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 346 terrorism-related fatalities, including 22 civilians, 63 SF personnel and 261 terrorists, have been reported in the current year, thus far (data till February 23, 2025) in KP. During the corresponding period of 2024, the province recorded 142 fatalities (41 civilians, 53 SF personnel and 48 terrorists). KP recorded a total of 1,363 fatalities (288 civilians, 421 SF personnel and 654 terrorists) in 487 incidents of killing in 2024, as against 941 such fatalities (205 civilians, 329 SF personnel, and 407 terrorists) in 312 such incidents in 2023, registering an increase of 44.84 per cent in overall fatalities. On year-on-year basis, overall fatalities have been on a continuous rise since 2020, with an increase from 130 (30 civilians, 69 SF personnel, and 31 terrorists) in 2019 to 216 (61 civilians, 57 SF personnel, and 98 terrorists) in 2020, 301 (72 civilians, 108 SF personnel, and 121 terrorists) in 2021 and further, to 527 (119 civilians, 173 SF personnel, and 235 terrorists) in 2022. Significantly, overall fatalities declined between 2014 and 2019, barring 2018, when they increased to 167, from 129 in 2017. Fatalities had fallen from 946 in 2013 to 607 in 2014, 298 in 2015, and 215 in 2016. Overall fatalities in 2024, at 1,363, are the highest in a year since 2009, when 5,883 fatalities were recorded in the province. Other parameters of violence also underlined a worsening security situation in the province in 2024. Total terrorism-linked incidents jumped sharply from 472 in 2023 to 702 in 2024, the highest since 2009, when there were 1,432 such incidents. The number of major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) increased from 84 in 2023 to 140 in 2024, the highest since 2009, when there were 341 such incidents; the resultant fatalities in such attacks also increased from 586 in 2023 to 891 in 2024. Similarly, KP accounted for an increased number of explosions, from 110 in 2023 to 142 in 2024 (the highest since 2013, when there were 198 such incidents), however, the resulting fatalities decreased from 296 to 207. Similarly, the province recorded a decreased number of suicide attacks from 28 in 2023 to 15 in 2024, the resultant fatalities in such attacks also decreased from 254 in 2023 to 93 in 2024. In the worst attack, on November 19, 2024, 12 SF personnel were killed when a suicide bomber rammed an explosive laden vehicle into the Mali Khel Check Post in the Bannu District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Six terrorists were also killed in the subsequent SF retaliation. Jabha Ansar al-Mahdi, a sub-group of Hafiz Gul Bahadur's faction of TTP, claimed responsibility for the attack. Of 38 Districts in KP, 28 recorded terrorism-related violence in 2024, as against 22 Districts in 2023, according to the SATP database. Of 38 Districts, 16 Districts registered terrorism-related incidents in 2022; 21 Districts in 2021; and19 Districts in 2020. The most violent District in 2024 was North Waziristan, with 271 fatalities, followed by South Waziristan (163 fatalities), Khyber (137 fatalities) and Kurram (126 fatalities). In 2023 as well, North Waziristan was the most violent District, with 151 fatalities, followed by Peshawar (122), Dera Ismail Khan (109) and South Waziristan (107). In 2022, again, North Waziristan District accounted for 177 fatalities, followed by Peshawar (87), Bannu (60) and Dera Ismail Khan (43). In 2021 again, Waziristan recorded the maximum of 106 fatalities, followed by South Waziristan (51), Peshawar (25) and Bajaur (22). In 2020, North Waziristan recorded 110 fatalities, followed by Peshawar (27) and South Waziristan (21). Compounding the rising trend in terrorism, is the flare-up of sectarian violence in Kurram District. Though sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslim groups is not a new phenomenon in Kurram District, but the renewed skirmishing in the district, commencing November 21, 2024, has so far taken over a hundred lives and drastically affected the day-to-day life of the region. On November 21, terrorists opened fire on a passenger convoy, in the Kurram District killing at least 43 persons and injuring 11. The convoy of around 200 vehicles, carrying Shia passengers between Peshawar and Parachinar, came under heavy gunfire in the densely populated Bagan town. Soon after the terrorist attack, clashes between Shias and Sunnis erupted in Kurram. The clashes and convoy attacks on November 21, 22, and 23, resulted in 82 fatalities and 156 persons injured. Among the deceased, 16 were Sunni, while 66 belonged to the Shia community. By the time a ceasefire was imposed on December 1, a total 130 people had been killed and another 186 sustained injuries. The actual fatalities figure could be much higher, as media movement was strictly limited due to the imposition of a curfew by the Government. Despite the curfew and ceasefire, sporadic violence continues. The KP Government disclosed, on January 1, 2025, that both warring Shia and Sunni tribes in Kurram Districts finally signed a peace agreement after more than three weeks of efforts to broker a ceasefire. The seven-page peace agreement has 14 points to which both parties assented, along with the Grand Jirga members. The document stated that, keeping in view the post-merger realities, members of the Kurram Peace Committee and both sides would be bound to uphold the Muree Agreement of 2008 and all other agreements, for the benefit of locals and the establishment of peace. The Muree Agreement was brokered by the Government and signed by all the tribes on October 16, 2008, to stop the violent clashes during 2007-08. Under the agreement, the rival tribes deposited PKR 20 million with the local authorities as a guarantee that they would refrain from fighting. But the five-point Agreement, which covered all major issues, was never implemented. Tribesmen blamed a lack of interest on the part of the Government for this. Further, during the 2011 sectarian clash, an Aman Jirga (peace conclave) between Sunni and Shia tribes on February 3, 2011, signed an accord, known as "Kurram accord" to end bloodshed between the two sects. The Kurram Accord is little more than a collection of recommendations and appeals to the Government of Pakistan, with no corresponding guarantees from the Government's side. The Accord appeals to the Government of Pakistan for support and necessary action for the repatriation of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and implementation of the Muree Agreement; and for approval of a special development package for Kurram to compensate for the losses the agency had suffered in violent clashes since 2007. It 'urged' both Shias and Sunnis to 'show restraint' and cooperate with the Government for peace, and called on the political administration and Security Forces to play their due roles to re-establish their writ in Kurram. However, despite the peace agreement, the warring groups never ceased their exchanges of fire. On January 16, 2025, 10 persons, including six drivers, two passengers and two soldiers, were killed in an attack on an aid convoy carrying essential goods to the sectarian violence-marred Kurram District, near the Bagan area of Kurram District. Six terrorists were killed in SF retaliation. At least 10 terrorists and four SF personnel also sustained injuries during the clash. On February 17, 2025, nine persons, including five SF personnel, a truck driver, a passer-by and two attackers, were killed, while another 15, including four drivers and one Police officer were injured, when an aid convoy, consisting of 64 vehicles, en-route to Parachinar, were attacked by unidentified terrorists in the Char Khail, Uchit Baghan and Mandori areas of Kurram District. The trucks were carrying food and other supplies under the supervision of SFs. Following the assault, more than 35 vehicles were trapped in the area, though nine vehicles reached Alizai safely, while 20 were sent back to Tull, with most of them stripped of their cargo. Though the Government and security agencies have been saying that the violence is between two warring sectarian groups over land disputes, there is a terrorist angel as well. Quoting the local people of Kurram, journalist Mushtaq Yousufzai noted, on December 30, 2024, that terrorists were targeting locals, not any religious group. "They say militants are in the region," he stated on the Aaj News programme News Insight with Amir Zia, "When Peshawar-Parachinar Road was closed, upper Kurram peoples used the Afghanistan route or mountains tracks route. But now it seems they are besieged for more than 80 days." When asked if the Government would be able to disarm people and shut down bunkers, the journalist added that the task was difficult, as the religious groups "doubted" the government's intention. They believed that surrendering arms, which they insist were for their own defence, would make them more vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Local people's apprehensions of terrorist attacks in Kurram are not unfounded, as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) affiliated Al-Azaim Media's 35th 'Voice of Khorasan' (Pashto, 125 pages) editorial on December 14, 2024, called for Sunni youth to target Shias, criticizing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Taliban for failing to defend Sunni Muslims in Kurram. It reiterated a call for lone wolf attacks, urging ISKP loyalists and others to act on its behalf in Kurram and beyond, while condemning the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), TTP, and the Taliban for 'abandoning' jihad, and for ties with the United Nations (UN). The surge in terrorism-related violence in the province can be attributed to three principal factors. First, the United States (US)-Western withdrawal from neighbouring Afghanistan. Second, the fall of Kabul to the Taliban on August 14, 2021. And finally, the collapse of 'official talks' between the Pakistan Government and the TTP on November 28, 2022. The spike in violence in KP in 2023 was foreseeable, when TTP chief Mufti Noor Wali, in the wake of the collapse of peace-talks, asked his fighters to resume attacks. When the US pulled its forces out from Afghanistan in 2021, it left behind around USD 7 billion worth of military equipment and weapons, including firearms, communications gear, and even armoured vehicles. The Afghan Taliban seized these weapons during the chaotic US withdrawal. On January 29, 2025, the Pakistan Foreign Office asserted that these advanced weapons have been an issue of profound concern for the safety and security of Pakistan and its citizens. The Foreign Office spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan issued a statement declaring, "These weapons, left behind in the aftermath of the withdrawal of its troops in August 2021, have been used by terrorist organisations, including the TTP [Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan], to carry out terrorist attacks in Pakistan," and further, that Pakistan has been "repeatedly calling upon the de facto authorities in Kabul to take all necessary measures to ensure that these weapons do not fall into the wrong hands." The FO statement came after US President Donald Trump's pledge to take back military equipment left behind in Afghanistan during troop withdrawal in 2021. However, the Taliban has reportedly refused to return any of the military equipment and urged the US to provide them with more advanced weapons to fight Daesh. On February 15, 2025, the 35th report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted to the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) revealed that the Afghan Taliban's continued support to TTP, despite Islamabad's increasing pressure to end backing of the outfit, was fuelling the group's escalating attacks in Pakistan. The scale of TTP's attacks in Pakistan has increased significantly, according to the report by the UNSC-formed monitoring team. The report, covering the period from July 1 to Dec 13, 2024, stated that the "status and strength of TTP in Afghanistan had not changed", while the group intensified its assaults on Pakistan, conducting over 600 attacks during the reporting period, many launched from Afghan territory. It underscored that the Taliban continued to provide the outlawed TTP with logistical and operational space and financial support, bolstering the group's capacity to sustain its activities. Earlier on December 16, 2024, the KP Chief Minister (CM) Ali Amin Gandapur claimed that between 22,000 and 24,000 TTP members, had found safe haven in Afghanistan. Gandapur also claimed that an additional 16,000 to 18,000 TTP fighters were operating inside Pakistan. He acknowledged that Pakistan lacked the capacity to maintain law and order along its extensive border with Afghanistan. While the Afghan Taliban denied harbouring TTP members in Afghanistan, insisting they do not support the group, Gandapur argued that international legal constraints prevented Pakistan from pursuing TTP fighters across the Afghan border. He called on the Federal Government to engage in negotiations with the Afghan Taliban, adding that initiating talks was beyond the jurisdiction of his provincial administration. "I am obligated to express my concerns about the deteriorating law-and-order situation because the people of my province are being killed by terrorism," Gandapur stated. While the terrorists operating in the province were equipped with modern sophisticated weapons, including sniper rifles and thermal sensors, the provincial Police forces who stand on the first line of defence, remain ill-equipped. On October 1, 2024, KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur chaired a high-level meeting in Peshawar to discuss peace and security in the province, particularly in the merged Districts of the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and southern KP. To enhance the capabilities of the Police, 122 bulletproof vehicles were allocated to former FATA Districts, PKR 7 billion was provided for the Police in the merged districts, and PKR 1 billion was released for the purchase of Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs). Additionally, 1,300 Police positions were announced for the Tank and Lakki Marwat Districts in Southern KP. Further on December 1, Chief Minister Gandapur announced a slew of measures to strengthen the Police's Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) to fight off surging incidents of terrorism in the province. "We are fighting an enemy that is better equipped and we have to level up at least to be able to overcome one of the biggest challenges of our lives," Gandapur told a news conference soon after attending a detailed briefing at the CTD Headquarters at Police Lines in Peshawar. The package, totalling PKR one billion, included the purchase of high-tech drones, sniper rifles with thermal and night vision capabilities, high-tech kits and bombproof vehicles. Quoting the KP Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) on December 31, 2024, The Express Tribune reported that the majority of terrorist attacks had been carried out in the southern Districts of the province, including Dera Ismail Khan, Lakki Marwat, Bannu, Tank, Kohat, North Waziristan, South Waziristan, Khyber, Bajaur and Peshawar. The Express Tribune's sources within the KP CTD revealed that the Police had nearly abandoned the practice of patrolling outside the Police Stations after sunset in the southern Districts, where terrorist activities against both civilians and armed personnel were on the rise. Commenting on the deteriorating law-and-order situation in the province and tribal areas, Dr. Khurram Iqbal, an expert in security affairs and a PhD in Counter-Terrorism and Security from Australia, while talking to The Express Tribune, stated, The tug of war between the Federal and Provincial Governments had destabilized the maintenance of peace in the southern Districts of KP. In order to deal with the problem of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan's cross-border sanctuaries, both the Federal and Provincial Governments must take a united stand vis-a-vis Afghanistan for ensuring lasting peace".  Despite the Provincial Government's efforts, terrorism continues to thrive due to the lack of cooperation from both the Federal and Afghanistan Governments. Advocating dialogue to settle disputes on January 20, 2025, KP Chief Minister Gandapur declared that he would send a delegation to Afghanistan within two weeks to seek solutions to Pakistan-Afghan issues. "The federal government talked about negotiations with Afghanistan over bilateral issues, but there's no success. Now, the dialogue with Kabul will be held at the provincial level. A delegation of our [KP] government will meet Afghan officials within two weeks." However, Federal Minister for States and Frontier Regions, Kashmir Affairs, and Gilgit-Baltistan Amir Muqam asserted, on February 1, 2025, that negotiations with Afghanistan fell outside the provincial government's jurisdiction. While TTP and its affiliated groups wreak havoc in the province from Afghanistan, the failure of the Governments at the Centre and province, confer a degree of impunity on the terrorists, and can only further worsen the situation in KP in the days to come. Tushar Ranjan MohantyResearch Associate, Institute for Conflict Management