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India: External Risks To Consolidation In Assam – Analysis

By Priyanka Devi Kshetrimayum On January 26, 2025, twin blasts took place at two separate locations in Guwahati in Kamrup (Metro) District. The explosions were claimed by the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I). The first explosion occurred at the Lalmati Brahmaputra vegetable market and the second at DV Parking in Beharbari. No casualties were reported. This is the only violent terrorism-linked incident reported in Assam in 2025, thus far (February 2, 2025). According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), four persons (three terrorists and one civilian) were killed in insurgency related incidents in 2024. However, each year between 2000 to 2014, Assam recorded fatalities in triple digits, with a peak of 565 (287 terrorists, 183 civilians, 76 Security Force, SF, personnel and 19 Not Specified, NS) in 2001. Fatalities remained in double digits between 2015 and 2018, and thereafter fell into single digits: three in 2019, eight in 2020, six in 2022, eight in 2023 and four in 2024; with the exception of 2021, with 29 fatalities (19 terrorists and 10 civilians). Security condition in the state improved further in 2024 because of three significant events in 2023: the signing of a tripartite Memorandum of Settlement (MoS) between the pro-talks faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-PTF), Government of India (GoI) and the Assam Government, at New Delhi on December 29; the surrender of 1,182 militants of the All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA), the Amrit Beck faction of AANLA (AANLA-AB), Birsa Commando Force (BCF), the Badal Tudu faction of BCF (BCF-BT), the Santhal Tiger Force (STF), the Adivasi Cobra Force (ACF)/Adivasi Cobra Military of Assam (ACMA), the Chunka Tudu faction of ACMA (ACMA-CT), and the Adivasi People's Army (APA), on July 6, 2023; and the signing of a tripartite MoS between the Centre, Assam Government and representatives of the Dimasa National Liberation Army (DNLA) in Delhi on April 27. Nevertheless, the state continues to face a multiplicity of security challenges, including: The stubborn refusal of ULFA-I to participate in any peace negotiation with the Government and its increasing activities to expand its networks  The exertions of Islamist radical groups, operating out of both Pakistani and Bangladeshi soil, including Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Ansar-al-Islam (AaI)/Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), as well as global Islamist groups such as the Islamic State (IS) and Al Qaeda, which are trying to establish a foothold in the state The marginal spillover from the insurgencies in the neighbouring north-eastern states, particularly problems connected with the activities of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN).  According to partial data compiled by SATP, 124 militants were arrested in 2024 - 60 from ULFA-I; 14 from JeM; 11 from ABT; six from the Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO); three from NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K) and; two each from the United Kuki National Army (UKNA), NSCN-IM, IS and AANLA; and one from KLO-Koch Nationalism (KLO-KN). While the group identities of 18 arrested militants were not confirmed, factional identities of three arrested NSCN cadres could also not be ascertained. In addition, seven militants have been arrested in 2025, till February 2, five ULFA-I and two ABT. In 2024, ULFA-I announced an 'armed military protest' boycotting Independence Day on August 15, 2024, from 6 am [IST] to 12 pm, across Assam, from Sadiya in Tinsukia District to Dhubri District. The group claimed it had planted bombs across 24 locations as a form of 'armed protest', including eight in the state capital, Guwahati, in the Kamrup (Metro) District of Assam. Police subsequently conducted searches and recovered explosives from different locations, including four in Guwahati, two from Sivasagar and Lakhimpur, and one each in Nagaon and Nalbari. No explosions were recorded on the date. On November 25, 2024, in response to ULFA-I activities, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) extended the ban on ULFA-I for five years, with effect from November 27, 2024, observing: ULFA has declared its objective to secede Assam from India, continued intimidation and extortion of funds for their organisation, and maintained links with other insurgent groups for extortion and violence. The outfit has possessed illegal arms and ammunition, indulged in 16 criminal cases, including several cases of explosions or planting of explosives in Assam during the period from November 27, 2019, to July 1, 2024, and planted several improvised explosive devices or explosives in the run-up to Independence Day, 2024, across Assam. As required, on December 24, 2024, UMHA constituted an "Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Tribunal", headed by Justice Michael Zothankhuma of the Guwahati High Court, to adjudicate whether or not there is sufficient cause for declaring ULFA, with all its factions, wings and front organisations, as an unlawful association. Regarding peace talks with ULFA, Himanta Biswa Sarma, Chief Minister (CM) of Assam, stated, on January 27, 2025, "The door is open for talks with ULFA. I have been talking with Paresh Baruah from time to time. The problem is that there are constitutional hurdles before the government in fulfilling ULFA's demand." Another threat in the state is the spillover of insurgencies from other states of the Northeast. Apart from the arrest of NSCN and UKNA cadres in Assam (mentioned earlier), an attack targeting three vehicles of the Assam Rifles occurred at Namdang area in Margherita in the Tinsukia District bordering Arunachal Pradesh on April 16, 2024, in which one trooper was injured. Tinsukia Superintendent of Police Gaurav Abhijit Dilip stated that either NSCN (faction not mentioned) or ULFA-I was involved in the attack, as the two outfits were active in the area. However, in a statement hours later after the attack, ULFA-I claimed responsibility, and called the incident a part of its 'revenge operation' for the encounter deaths of ULFA-I cadres Achinta Moran alias Yangkhu Asom and Uttam Lahon alias Uday Asom in 2022 and 2023, respectively. A growing concern is the influence of Islamist radical groups in Assam. As SAIR noted earlier, intelligence inputs indicate that radical Islamist terrorist groups have increased their recruitment efforts in the aftermath of the August 5, 2024, coup and subsequent chaos in Bangladesh. Indian intelligence agencies have reported that the Bangladesh-based terrorist group ABT may try to establish a presence in Assam and West Bengal. Reports indicate that a prominent ABT leader, Abdullah Talah, was working to spread ABT influence in northeastern India. Moreover, Jashimuddin Rahmani, ABT 'chief' was released by the interim government of Bangladesh at a time when ABT has been attempting to create a jihadi network with the aid of sleeper cells, especially in the Assam and Tripura states of India. As part of "Operation Praghat" led by Assam Police's Special Task Force (STF), in coordination with the Kerala and West Bengal Police, neutralised a terror module of ABT during simultaneous operations carried out in Assam, West Bengal and Kerala and arrested eight operatives on December 18, 2024. Five operatives - Nur Islam Mandal (40), Abdul Karim Mandal (30), Mojibar Rahman (46), Hamidul Islam (34) and Enamul Hoque (29) - were arrested in Assam. The operation was launched based on intelligence inputs about clandestine anti-national activities led by Mohammad Farhan Israk, an associate of Jasimuddin Rahmani. Additionally, under "Operation Praghat", apart from the five ABT operatives arrested on December 18, 2024 in Assam, another four were arrested in separate incidents in December 2024. These arrests included: December 29, a combined team of Assam Police STF and Kokrajhar Police arrested an ABT operative, Gazi Rahman (35), from Kokrajhar District. December 24, the STF of Assam Police arrested two ABT operatives, Abdul Zaher Sheikh and Sabbir Mirdha, from Kokrajhar. December 27, the STF of Assam Police arrested an ABT operative, Shahinur Islam (36), under operation "Praghat" at Bandhabpara in Bilasipara in Dhubri District.  Moreover, two ABT cadres have already been arrested in January, 2025 (data till February 2, 2025). These arrests included: January 21, the STF of Assam Police arrested one operative of the ABT identified as Ajibar Rahman (31) from Chinamari village in Bilasipara in Dhubri District. January 19, the STF of Assam Police arrested a cadre of the ABT identified as Jaheer Ali from Bilasipara in Dhubri District. Meanwhile, on January 23, 2025, the NIA Special Court at Guwahati sentenced two accused - Mamunur Rashid and Mukibul Hussain aka Makibul Hussain - to imprisonment in an ABT-linked case. The case, registered in March 2022, pertained to an ABT module operating in Barpeta District, led by Bangladeshi national Saiful Islam alias Haroon Rashid. Similarly, on January 30, 2025, NIA sentenced another two accused, Mufti Suleiman Ali and Imran Hossen alias Imran Hossain in the same case. In relation to the jihadi threat, Chief Minister Sarma, stated on January 1, 2025, that the government was witnessing results against the jihadi threat along the border areas as a result of collaboration with NIA and the Intelligence Bureau (IB). As reported on January 2, 2025, the Chief Executive Member (CEM) of the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC), Pramod Boro, asserted that the jihadi operatives in the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) of Assam would never succeed, and would fail in Bodoland, which has already suffered from a decades-long militancy , and where people desire to breathe the fresh air of peace. He added, "Our vision is that all innovative schemes, privileges must reach to the last people in the society then there will be no jihadi or other operatives." Meanwhile, as reported on July 24, 2024, peace negotiations between the Government of India (GoI) and the Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO)are on the verge of conclusion. KLO-KN 'chairman' Darsar Langkam Koch stated, "Our talks with the Indian government are at the final stage, and only a formal declaration is awaited." However, KLO-KN urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah to provide a permanent solution to the community's issues, based on their charter of demands. Earlier, the KLO-KN faction had declined to participate in peace talks with the GoI, which are being led by KLO 'chief' Jeevan Singha Koch. However, Darsar Langkam Koch entered India on June 18, 2024, and joined the peace process, under Singha's leadership. Assam has been infested with problems of militancy for a long period. It has also been a target for terrorist organisations operating from outside its soil. With peace talks in place with the majority of remaining active outfits in the state, the Government is working to further enhance security. However, the belligerent outfits which continue to refuse negotiations with the Government and also engineer occasional incidence of violence and terrorism, will have to be contained, to end the state's long run of insurgencies. Priyanka Devi KshetrimayumResearch Associate, Institute for Conflict Management