Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 19/Feb 02:40

Peace In Europe Is Only Possible Under Trump – OpEd

After depending on America as its ally for decades, the European leaders at the Munich Security Conference this week now see first hand the continent's decades old norms and dogma of the American security umbrella now crumbling in front of them. The U.S. and Russia have begun talks in Saudi Arabia aimed at improving diplomatic ties and negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine, without the involvement of Europe and Ukraine. This is only made possible under Trump, and will signal a new path towards peace. If Biden defeated Trump in the elections, this conflict will only prolong with greater amounts of lives lost and money pumped in unnecessarily.  U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sat down with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Riyadh, signaling a potential thaw in U.S.-Russia relations after years of tension following the Ukraine conflict, and after years of limited engagement thanks to Biden's old school approach.  Trump criticised Zelensky for his disapproval of this direct meeting without Ukraine, and Trump is right when he argued that Zelensky has for three years been here but practically the war has seen no signs of abating. Only Trump has the capacity in the world now to halt this previous stalemate of the West's stubborn old school approach, and to end the war now. This first formal talk will set up nicely the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, which will mark a new chapter of ties between Moscow and Washington, where it will no longer be constrained by past status quo and conventional approaches of the Biden administration. This meeting is very much overdue, and this will pave the way for the end of the Ukraine conflict, and this also brings much certainty to long term bilateral ties and a reset of relationship with Russia, away from the past entanglements of traditional European factor and trap.  Since the conflict started, America has been confined to two principles: that Ukraine's future should not be decided without the involvement of Ukraine; and that America and its Western allies must come together to face Putin. ⁠ In came Trump and this changed entirely.  European leaders now face a scramble to reorient their security setting amidst the new shake-up and the risks of an American pullout or using that as a pretext to force Europe to ease on its conventional barriers to Ukraine peace talks. European leaders held an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday to align their position after they are left out of the talks for Ukraine.  The outcome of the eventual Trump-Putin meeting also will transcend the impact on Ukraine alone, as a new set of improved ties with the US will lessen the necessity for Moscow to increase reliance on China and the DPRK as a trade off for higher bargaining chips with the US.  Without external influences and forces and with Trump's new distinct mantra of self push for peace, with the doubling down on the reality that Zelensky will not be naively expecting the same territorial ownership before the war, and in shutting down any idea of Ukraine joining NATO, this meeting will mark a new beginning in long term peace deals for Russia. Europe will also now be left with a more self independent defence approach without the easy reliance on American power presence, which will further limit its potential for escalations or provocations with Russia. With Trump's warning that Europe will be left alone, the talks of the creation of the Army of Europe will not in any way embolden European powers to challenge Russia, knowing how without the US involvement, it is in no way able to sustain any aggressive confrontation. This direct meeting between Trump and Putin is the most beneficial and strategic in any ways, in keeping away the European forces that have for long been a main barrier. With Trump's own tariff strategy and reorientation of security ties with Europe, plus the new thaw of ties between Russia and the US, Europe will be forced to scale down on its Russian pushback, seeing how fragile cross Atlantic ties will further limit its trade and economic options, which it will now have to rely more on the Indo Pacific and China as a result, although both are still risky for Europe's shaky Indo Pacific push. Can Europe defend itself without American support? Not a chance. This will force Europe to spend more on its defence, including its NATO commitment. This will require a spike in defence spending and especially on targeted key defence areas and deterrence capacity, something which Europe lacks now with its stagnating economy coupled with the tariff threat from Trump. Last year, only 18 NATO allies just spent the target of 2% of GDP in defence. What Europe really lacks is the proper defence and deterrence capacity against Russia, and will be left as sitting ducks without the holistic American military deterrent capacity especially in nuclear and high technology missiles.  What does Europe really lack? It is the basic military technology and capability that make armed forces credible, capable and most importantly, lethal. Europe has outdated and outnumbered ships and missiles. It has ships without the proper missiles, planes without the needed technological capacity including jamming capabilities, and even troops without adequate ammunition.  The disparity of Western and Eastern European military capabilities and intra Europe power gap are glaring, and lacking the combined holistic military spectrum including intelligence, space security and satellite capabilities, cyber and digital warfare, and missiles and nuclear first and second strike capacities, Europe cannot afford to defend itself without America. But it has for decades been piggybacking on America's back, banking on the conventional and assured American military and financial support in securing its interests and security needs without the urgent need to bolster these capabilities.  The nature of European arsenals cannot match with the overall nuclear and military umbrella that America provides.  The American nuclear umbrella and nuclear forces have protected Europe for decades, serving as the ultimate assurance and guarantee against a Russian invasion.  This easy ride on security assurances for Europe made it easier for it to focus deeper on its economic and trade needs, and pivoting to Africa and Asia. However, even this is ineffective, with its Global Gateway strategy and the Indo Pacific push all failed to pull Europe out of its stagnation,even in post Brexit recovery. With Trump now reversing decades of free ride, European security suddenly looks in shambles, even without the Ukraine pretext in the first place.  Compare that to Russia, who enjoys higher volume advantage both in conventional and nuclear capacities. France and Britain both have a combined nuclear warheads of around 500, while the US has around 5000, and Russia has the highest number at approximately 6000. The Ukrainian experience portrayed how the conflict there should not have been started in the first place, and if Trump was in power at that time, in his own words and Putin's, this would not have started. Trump has chastised the decision for Ukraine to take the fight with Russia, despite knowing the huge and glaring disparity of firepower and military capacity between Moscow and Kiev, while hoping for Washington to continue to provide military aid in the hundreds of billions, all while Europe is happy to just contribute enough, albeit little.  Trump's further tariff threat on Europe should it continue hijack Trump's direct Putin deal remains a strategic and brilliant pull off from Trump, and open are the doors to new economic, trade and security reorientation with Russia in a gradually positive tone, especially if new future sanctions are withheld or waived in tandem with Russia's own reciprocal sweetener in the Ukraine peace deal.  This new shake-up in the European security sphere where it is now finding itself suddenly exposed and vulnerable will mean that it is left with no choice but to placate Trump, and to avoid further tariff and risks of entire pullout of US security. This will push Europe to accept that the Ukrainian peace deal will need to go through, and there will be no more barriers to continue the financial wastages on the war and the ever mounting toll of lives lost on both sides.  Europe has always singled out Russia as the main threat to its security, and yet before Trump 1.0, has continued to rely heavily on Russian oil and gas for its energy security, while soliciting American military and nuclear support at the same time. It will take Europe at least ten years to properly defend itself without America, and it will need America more than ever.  In future thaw of ties and the upcoming negotiations, Russia is expected to demand for more considerations from the West, including possible prisoner swap and also the ease of sanctions on Iran which will allow for more Iranian oil export that will ease oil prices, and eventually help with Russia's post recovery.  The West in turn is expected to push Russia to be disassociate more with China and North Korea, and to lower its role in BRICS and other anti-West mechanisms, barring the potentiality of Trump to further lavish higher tariff and sanctions on Moscow and also the risks of a fallout in the peace talks.  However, both have more to gain from an eventual peace and a thaw in ties, and even Europe will reap more benefits in the future. The peace plan might also include the resumption of greater energy flow into Europe from Russia, which it needs.Most gas deliveries ceased in 2022, when Russia closed down Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The EU now receives just 10% of its gas from Russia, down from 45% in 2021. This affected Moscow's supply chain as well, and a heavy financial toll.  Europe is feeling the pinch from continuing high prices, and this year it will need to buy more than usual to fill its storage which is now only 48% full compared to 66% at the same time last year. The limit on the supply and flow by Russia also affected both sides, in both navigating through this barrier while others tried to circumvent it. Hungary and Slovakia still receive piped Russian flows from Turkey; while others also get regasified Russian LNG that flows through northern Europe.  Ukraine is adamant it will not renew its deal with Russia, but turnarounds are being studied. The EU'S most Russia-wary members would strongly oppose greater dependence on the country's energy, but that hinges on the outcome of the peace deal.  At the same time, Trump would have wanted Europe to buy more of American oil and gas, but if the peace deal goes through, Russia will be able to supply more, which will lower prices around the world that might put American oil drillers and capacities at a disadvantage.However, the peace plan is more pressing, and will bring greater financial and security savings for Washington and Brussels.  It is time to stop this madness of the Ukraine war, with the common sense and sensible approach taken by Trump to begin talks and negotiations, which will benefit all nations.  Like what Trump has long argued, this should not have started in the first place, and would not have started should he still be in power, a fact where even Putin concurred, but at least Trump has now kept his promise to end this, cleaning up Biden's mess. Hopes are high for the return of peace at long last.