Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 17/Feb 23:43

Maldives: Treading Cautiously – Analysis

By Sanchita Bhattacharya Maldives recorded no terrorism-linked fatality in 2024. The abduction and killing of blogger Yameen Rasheed by a local affiliate of Al-Qaeda on April 23, 2017, was the last terrorism related incident of the country. There have, nevertheless, been at least nine terrorist attacks in the country since the Rasheed killing, including three in 2019, four in 2020 and one each in 2021 and 2022. Further, there have been no incidents of terrorism-linked arrests in Maldives in 2024, continuing with the trend of 2023, as against 26 such arrests in 2022. Nevertheless, as reported in January 2024, according to the country's intelligence sources, Maldives not only remains a hub of Islamic State (IS) operatives but also of Pakistan-based terrorist groups, as well as of narcotics smugglers with international linkages. Sources indicate that a Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) base has also been identified in Maldives in the past. Maldives faces a major problem from radical Islamist fundamentalists who fund local governments, with the involvement of some big business houses. These business houses have also been drawn towards China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Moreover, key Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) operative Umar Nisar Bhat alias Qasim Khorasani, who was arrested in 2021, stated in his confession that he was in regular touch with the Bangladesh and Maldives-based Islamic Ameer (chief), who could have used this link to expand terrorist propaganda networks. However, at the official level, on October 1, 2024, Maldives participated in the 10th Ministerial Meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh/ISIS (D-ISIS) hosted by then U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington, D.C. and reiterated Maldives' unwavering belief that terrorism must never be associated with any religion, nationality, or ethnicity. With the Maldives engagement at the Ministerial Meeting, Malé also reaffirmed its commitment to fostering global security, promoting dialogue, and advancing the shared aspiration for a peaceful and prosperous world. This marks Maldives' inaugural participation in the D-ISIS Ministerial, following its formal membership of the Coalition in August 2023. In 2024, the Ministry of Homeland Security and Technology undertook strategic initiatives targeting four challenging areas that needed to be addressed to ensure the country's internal security and safety, including persisting drug issues. On November 24, the President of Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, stated that it is one of the highest priorities of the government to transform Maldives into a drug-free environment. Muizzu's statement came in a post on 'X', after the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) seized 468.6 kg of illicit drugs from a Sri Lankan vessel that illegally entered into Maldivian waters. Maldives have been dealing with various narcotics-related issues that have plagued the archipelago for many decades, and adequate reform has not been brought about to date. Nevertheless, as reported on December 9, President Muizzu disclosed that his government has stepped up efforts to combat drug trafficking, and six times more drugs were seized in 2024, as compared to 2023. President said the drugs seized so far this year are estimated to have a street value of around USD 84 million. He added that over 150 expatriates linked to drug trafficking have been deported so far this year (2024), which is twice that of 2023, and that the Police had raided over 13,435 establishments in 2024, amid a nationwide crackdown on trafficking, as compared to around 8,500 raids conducted in 2023. Further, as reported on January 9, efforts have been commenced to detect the Maldives' main gateway, Velana International Airport's (VIA's) camera blind spots and increase security to address the smuggling of drugs via air. Efforts are also ongoing to install vessel tracking devices to tackle drug trafficking via sea. The archipelago is also grappling with an increased rate of cybercrime. The number of reported cybercrimes in Maldives nearly doubled in 2024, as compared to 2023, as revealed by Police Commissioner Ali Shujau on December 11, 2024. Shujau emphasised the urgent need to curb the spread of cybercrime and expand cyber security measures across the nation. "In 2023, the Maldives Police Service recorded 99 cybercrime cases. This year, the figure has risen sharply to 173," Commissioner Shujau disclosed. In a positive direction, Maldives has enacted legislative amendments to criminalise cybercrime. On December 17, the amendments to the Penal Code, the Criminal Procedure Code, and the Act on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters, were ratified by President Muizzu. The amendments to the Penal Code formally recognise cybercrime within the legal framework and categorizes 10 activities as cyber offenses: Unauthorized access to computer systems Accessing unauthorized computer systems with the intention of committing a crime Intercepting unauthorized data on computer systems Interfering with unauthorized computer systems Misuse of computer systems or similar devices Acts of cyber violence Computer-related forgeries Acts of fraud and misrepresentation related to computer systems Infringement of copyright and associated rights People found guilty of such offenses will be subject to upwards of one year in prison. Comprehensive economic reforms are urgently needed in Maldives, to address fiscal and external imbalances, build investor confidence, and reduce debt over the medium-term. On October 10, 2024, a World Bank report titled Maldives Development Update: Seeking Stability in Turbulent Times, underlined heightened external and fiscal vulnerabilities that required the urgent implementation of comprehensive economic reforms. While overall inflation remained low at 0.5 per cent in the first half of 2024, food prices rose by 6.7 per cent in the same period, as compared to the previous year. Foreign exchange reserves are also low, enough to cover only 1.5 months of imports. Dollar reserves fell from USD 590.5 million at the end of 2023 to USD 443.9 million in August 2024. Further, in the month of December 2024, the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) reported that the inflation rate, which was at 0.3 per cent during the second quarter, had risen to 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2024. The Central Bank released its Economic Quarterly Bulletin, in which it emphasized that this increase in inflation could mainly be attributed to price changes in the energy sector. President Muizzu of the People's National Congress (PNC) party won the September 2023 presidential elections, with a 54.06 per cent of the vote in the run-off contest, defeating incumbent President Ibrahim Solih. In April 2024, the PNC won a super-majority in the People's Majlis (Parliament), with 66 seats, while its allies won 9 seats, giving Muizzu the support of 75 of the 93 members of the Majlis. It won't be wrong to say that the economic disturbances of the country are the reason for Muizzu's tip-toeing between India and China. With his 'India Out' campaign at the forefront, Muizzu visited Beijing in January, 2023, signing infrastructure and climate deals with China - but he has not burned bridges with New Delhi. He described India as a 'valued partner' and in the aftermath of his Indian visit in October, 2024, India approved a USD 400 million currency swap agreement, to support the cash-strapped Maldivian economy. With a string of domestic issues and economic challenges, Maldives needs to tread cautiously to sustain itself under Mohamed Muizzu's leadership. The archipelago is in dire need of better management of regional players, of economic crises, of the challenge of radicalization, and of the increased narco-threat. Sanchita BhattacharyaResearch Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management