Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 17/Feb 00:13

Trump Lacks The Minerals For Ukraine Deal

By Aurélie Pugnet (EurActiv) -- Volodymyr Zelenskyy's rejection of Donald Trump's offer to trade US military aid for access to half of Ukraine's critical raw materials has teed up a back-and-forth neogtiation that could become key to peace talks. The US president has honed in on the mineral riches of Ukraine, just as he has done with Greenland. In both cases, he has used the US's military might to try and stack the odds in his favour. While he refused to take an invasion of Greenland off the table, in the case of Ukraine Trump has used military support as a bargaining chip to coax the Ukranians into surrendering vast amounts of their critical raw materials – possibly to the value of $500 billion, he said on Tuesday. But a deal has so far eluded even the world's most self-assured negotiator. Though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had initially signalled interest in an arrangement, on Saturday the Ukrainian answer was 'no'. A 50-50 deal in which the US would take half the country's raw minerals was unsatisfactory for Kyiv, the Financial Timesreported.Ukraine ranks in the world's top 10 suppliers of mineral resources. The main issue in exploiting them is that most of the deposits are located in the east of the country, close to or in Russian-controlled territory. Zelenskyy is, however, pressed for time when it comes to military aid – and not just because the US wants a deal done in "days and weeks," not months. At the moment, the country’s forces struggle to make any significant advancement on the battlefield, a pre-requisite if they are to have the upper hand in any negotiations with Russia. Zelenskyy is at a crossroads, as his army heavily relies on US military aid. The US provided 40% of all support last year, even despite the Republicans in the US senate blocking deliveries of fighter jets, air defence systems and long-range weapons.If Zelenskyy's efforts to entice Trump into a reasonable arrangement on raw minerals were sucessful, the floodgates could open for massive flows of weapons to Kyiv. According to the Financial Times, Zelenskyy is also interested in doing similar minerals-for-weapons deals with European countries, alongside the US. Europe has so far been relegated by the US to planning post-deal security guarantees, with no seat at the table in talks. A domestic bargaining chip Many of Trump's Republican allies have stood against more aid to Ukraine, in a nod to the views of their voting base. But the influential Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the mineral deal's major advocates, said on a panel in Munich on Saturday that a trademark Trump quid pro quo could see the American public get on board with keeping the aid tap running. “President Trump can go to the American people and say 'Ukraine is not a burden, it is a benefit'", Graham said. “They are sitting on top of a trillion dollars worth of minerals that we can benefit from… I do know [Putin] is going after the money, don’t let him steal what Ukraine has to enrich itself”. “If those agreements happen, it's a nightmare for Putin because we have something to defend that we did not have before”, he added. He did not explicitly mention the significant opportunity that such a deal would present for US industry – whose support is vital for the likes of Graham, up for re-election in 2026. Nonetheless, Zelenskyy seemed to agree with the latter part of Graham's assessment on Friday. "We need to protect Ukraine and our resources,” he said. “Why do we need to protect them? So that they do not fall into the hands of Russia and their allies." Ukraine to compete against China and Russia? The critical nature of Ukraine's raw materials comes from surging demand as key components in vital technologies, especially for space, defence and electric vehicles. Control over those will give Western countries a major competitive advantage, especially against Russia and China. Despite the vice president's assertions to the contrary on Friday, the US administration sees China as the “real” bad guy, said a source in direct contact with senior US officials. The NATO military alliance has listed 12 critical materials “essential” for the defence industry, for a whole range of products, from fighter aircraft to missiles and submarines. Aluminium and graphite are on top of the list of at-risk supplies. China, the largest global and EU supplier of critical raw materials, cut off exports to the US of gallium and germanium in December. It already requires foreign importers to explain to the Chinese government how such materials should be used. Even though the US has alternative suppliers, Western countries are looking for reliable trade partners to guarantee them visibility in supply. When it comes to the environmental risks, they seem to be a secondary thought. “If I have to choose between the threat of contaminating these territories with Russia or contaminating them with the byproducts of exploration of raw materials, I would definitely go for the second option,” former Ukrainian Foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said.