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Mercurial Trump’s Gamble In Term 2.0 – Analysis

President-elect Donald Trump is already making news even before assuming the presidency. This is not surprising because he is known for his mercurial and unpredictable stances on many global as well as bilateral issues. Trump has already indicated that he would revisit many of the international agreements that are not serving America’s interests. He has also threatened to increase tariffs in imports from many countries that are against America’s economic interests. Such tough decisions could damage America’s relations with its trading partners. But that is Trump for the world to understand and learn to deal with. Even before taking office on January 20, Trump has threatened to seize the Panama Canal, revived calls to buy Greenland and even joked about annexing Canada, leaving the world guessing once again whether he is serious or not. Experts opine that Trump’s rhetoric could be a ‘message’ for China, which has increased its influence in Latin America and the Arctic. By such pronouncements, Trump even before returning to the Oval office has challenged the sovereignty of some of America’s closest allies, thereby underscoring his credentials as global disrupter-in-chief. Analysts have begun to interpret that Trump would be harsher on US friends than on the adversaries like Russia and China. Greenland issue Trump has floated the idea of the US buying the vast strategic island Greenland, a Danish territory, which he also had stated during his first term in office. Now he repeated the idea when naming PayPal co-founder Ken Howery as his ambassador to the Kingdom of Denmark and said “ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity” for US national security. Even when Howery said he would work to deepen the bonds between the US, Denmark and Greenland, Trump was rebuffed when Greenland Prime Minister Mute Egede answered that the resource-rich island was “not for sale”. Howery was an ambassador to Sweden from 2019 to 2021, under Trump’s first administration. Trump’s proposal to buy Greenland in 2019 had triggered tensions between the US and Denmark. That time Denmark Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen too had described Trump’s proposal as absurd and made it clear Greenland was not for sale. There are other considerations behind Trump’s temptation to grab Greenland. Like other resources, such as copper of which Greenland has plenty, countries should be able to transact land, and Trump reasons his stance based on international norms on free and fair terms. In any such land transaction, the consent of the peoples is a must. With a positive intent, such transactions could make the world more peaceable, prosperous and habitable for more of humanity. There are several critical raw materials Europe needs for its industries and the green transition can be found in Greenland. In 2023, EU signed an MoU with Greenland to develop sustainable raw materials value chains. Greenland also has large deposits of rare earth metals key to the production of energy transition tech and batteries. Trump is clearly eyeing on these. At this point Denmark is not willing to make a sale. But it is not like Greenland had been theirs from time immemorial. European invaders occupied many parts of the world and claimed as their own over time. Likewise, when Tsar Alexander II sold Alaska to the US, the uncivilized tribes were too handed over as objects. Similarly when Napoleon sold Louisiana, he was not concerned about the local population either. But things are perceived and seen differently in the present times. Trump can have his ways if the majority of the Greenland population of which 96 per cent are Inuit endorse such an idea. A transaction in such a way shall be perfectly legitimate in international law. Here, there are some similarity in what Chinese President Xi Jinping has been pursuing and what Trump intends to do. In principle, both are expansionists. While Xi has been doing in total disregard of international law and under duress of threat of use of force, Trump has just floated his ideas which he wants to pursue through diplomacy. Even before assuming the presidency, Trump sent his son to Greenland to sell the idea of Greenland being a part of the US. But the people of Greenland scoffed at the proposal “Greenland is not for sale and will never be for sale”. While Xi’s long term goal is to restore China’s status of what it was once the Middle Kingdom, Trump seeks a ‘Greater America’ in his pursuit of ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) goal. The MAGA is a geographical and cartographic entity that began to take shape after Trump urged Canada to merge with the US and renewed the idea of buying Greenland from Denmark. Panama Canal Issue But what grabbed the headline was Trump’s remarks on Panama when he slammed what he called unfair fees for US ships passing through and threatened to demand control of the Panama Canal be returned to Washington. Trump was categorical that if Panama did not agree to hike the fees, the US can have the right to demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the US “in full, quickly and without question”. When Jimmy Carter was the US President, he and the leader of Panama Omar Torrijos had signed treaties obliging the US to surrender control of the Panama Canal by 1999, settling a longstanding point of friction between the two countries. Carter saw the move as an overdue show of American resolve to deal with the developing nations of the world, the small nations of the world, on the basis of mutual respect and partnership. Conservatives denounced the treaties as a giveaway. Gallup found that 78 per cent of Americans opposed the treaties. Canal was built by the United States in 1914 to link the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. It was returned to Panama under a 1977 deal. Adding more to this threat, Trump threatened new anti-drug tariffs on ‘day 1’ for China, Canada, Mexico and hinted at China’s growing influence around the canal. Trump also teased neighbouring Canada that it would be a great idea to become the 51st US state – but against a dark backdrop of threatened tariffs. Trump complains that Canada makes almost $100 billion in trade with the US. Trump is also harsh in his comments and treatments of US allies in stark contrast to his repeated praise for the leaders of US foes, including Russia’s Vladimir Putin, despite his invasion of Ukraine created international opprobrium. The big question that puzzles is if Trump’s comments on buying Greenland were a subtle message to China, presently America’s biggest adversary. This is because Trump feels that Beijing has been incrementally spreading its influence in Panama. Trump is equally concerned about China’s growing presence in the Arctic and is worried about China’s growing ties with Russia. Trump may be sending a message to Denmark not to be too cosy with China. However, any US plan to “buy” Greenland would be unfeasible not just in international law but more broadly in the global order that the US has been trying to uphold. The biggest talking point is Trump has not ruled out military or economic action as part of his avowed desire to have the US take back control of the Panama Canal and acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. Canada, America’s 51st state What was most galling about Trump’s statement on Canada becoming as America’s 51st state caught world’s attention. By floating the idea of what could be a ‘Greater America’ by asking Canada to join his country as the 51st state, Trump reasoned that Canadians would ‘save massively on taxes and military protection’ if their country becomes a part of the US. Trump reasoned that the US can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits and subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Trump’s taunt was a shocker to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as he was in the midst of a crisis sparked by the sudden departure of a minister who was a bulwark against Trump’s plan to start trade wars with his neighbours. Trump’s comments could be light-hearted but Trudeau must be losing his sleep on Trump’s comments. This could have been another trigger, besides others, for him to step down from office. Renaming Gulf of Mexico another MAGA pitch As mentioned before, Trump’s expansionist pitch does not stop with Greenland and Panama Canal. Now his MAGA pitch covers the Gulf of Mexico, which he wants to rename as Gulf of America. Trump forgets that naming of the sea as the Gulf of Mexico predates the formation of the US. The Times of India rightly editorialised thus: “Grandstanding that borders on the comic has been a part of Trump’s disruptive style aimed at unsettling political rivals.” The editorial further explained: “This seemingly isolationist policy now seems to be making way for American exceptionalism and expansionism that threatens to redraw boundaries.” It transpires therefore that Trump in his second term will be disruptive for the world in many ways. Future of Ties with India During the Joe Biden administration, India-US relationship grew strong in many fronts, including strategic, defence and economy. There are fears that some of these will be undermined during the Trump 2.0 presidency as Trump has threatened reciprocal tariffs with many countries, including India, with which the US enjoys trade disadvantage. Trump has called India’s tariffs ‘very high’ on the US imports. Broadly, Trump has hinted that US policy during his second term would be isolationistic. Optimists however opine that the India-US relationship built over the past 25 years is now a cornerstone of both nations’ foreign policy agenda. The breadth of cooperation spans defence, trade, energy, technology, education, and counterterrorism. This is not to say that trade and tariffs could pose an immediate challenge under Trump’s renewed leadership. Trump has been critical of what he perceives as imbalances in trade with India, particularly India’s high tariffs and the trade deficit. This was a priority during Trump’s first term and will likely dominate the agenda in the early days of the second term. For Trump, addressing the tariff issue not only with India but with other trading partners with which the US has an imbalance of trade is a priority. He seeks a level of reciprocity. Trump is likely to focus on sectors like energy, where US exports could meet India’s rising demand, and services, where greater collaboration could enhance trade relations. It would be a challenge to India’s policy makers how to deal with Trump and his negotiators so that mutual economic growth remains sustained and mutual understanding on global issues are not hampered.