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Israel, Hamas Agree Cease-Fire Deal, Although Much ‘Uncertainty’ Remains

By Kian Sharifi (RFE/RL) -- Israel and the U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas have reached a multiphase cease-fire deal that includes the exchange of Israeli hostages for some 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and the delivery of urgent humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. Mediated by Qatar and Egypt, the agreement will go into effect on January 19, according to Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. It includes three stages, with the final stage focusing on the reconstruction of Gaza. The conflict broke out in October 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked settlements in southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages to Gaza. Israel retaliated by launching a devastating war in the Palestinian enclave that has killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities. The conflict has led to the mass destruction of the territory and the displacement of most of its 2.3 million residents. What We Know The details of the agreement have not been formally published, but a clear image has emerged from official comments and media reports based on leaked drafts of the deal. In the first phase, a six-week cease-fire will begin, during which Israeli troops will gradually withdraw from central Gaza. During this phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages -- expected to be mostly women, the elderly, and the sick -- in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Some hostages were released in November 2023 in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas is still holding 94 hostages, but Israel believes that only 60 are still alive. Palestinians displaced by the conflict will be allowed to return to their homes in the first phase of the deal, while humanitarian aid will start to flow into the Hamas-run enclave. Nearly the entirety of Gaza residents were forced to flee their homes, fueling a major humanitarian crisis. Further negotiations on the second and third phase of the agreement will begin on the 16th day of the deal’s implementation, and analysts say this could pose the first real challenge to the cease-fire’s longevity. The second phase of the agreement involves the release of the remaining hostages and, crucially, the end of the war. “There is a lot of uncertainty as to whether Israel is committed to a permanent end of the conflict,” said Michael Horowitz, the head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy. What It Means The Iran-backed Hamas has suffered greatly in the course of the war, losing its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and his successor, Yahya Sinwar, within months of each other. Horowitz said Hamas will claim victory simply because it survived the war. “The question is whether it can truly return to power in Gaza, retain its military capabilities, and even capitalize on this perceived victory to consolidate its presence outside of Gaza, namely in the West Bank,” he added. Iran, whose so-called axis of resistance has suffered multiple setbacks since the outbreak of the Gaza war, sees the cease-fire as good news. Israel fought a devastating war with the U.S.-designated Lebanese political party and armed group Hezbollah late last year, decimating its senior leadership and degrading its military capabilities. Hezbollah came out of the war a shell of its former self, and its weakening led to the election of a president and prime minister in Lebanon who are favored by Western powers and Iran’s regional rivals. Adding insult to injury, Syrian rebel forces opposed to the government of Iran’s longtime ally Bashar al-Assad launched a lightning offensive on the very day that Hezbollah and Israel agreed to a cease-fire. The Iran- and Russia-backed government of Assad fell in under two weeks, dealing a major blow to both Tehran and Moscow’s regional ambitions. Horowitz said the Gaza cease-fire allows Iran to fully de-escalate and engage the Donald Trump administration once he takes office later this month. Iran may also sit back and recalibrate its strategy, such as deciding whether to re-arm Hamas, which Horowitz said may not pose the same threat to Israel as it once did for a long time. “I think the West Bank may be more interesting for Iran, as this is where the future of the Palestinian divide between Hamas and Israel will play out,” he added. Many in Israel will welcome the end of the war and the return of hostages, but the cease-fire deal could turn into a headache for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has claimed several times that the war will continue until “total victory” over Hamas. Given the staunch opposition to the deal among far-right members of his cabinet -- some of whom have threatened to quit -- Netanyahu’s top priority will be to ensure his government does not collapse, according to Horowitz.