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Pakistan: Rekindling Terror In Punjab – Analysis

By Tushar Ranjan Mohanty On January 2, 2025, the Punjab Police (Pakistan) released its annual performance report for 2024, highlighting significant achievements in apprehending criminals and ensuring public safety. Over 137,000 fugitives and proclaimed offenders involved in serious crimes were arrested across the province, including Lahore. Among them, 104 dangerous fugitives evading justice abroad were extradited to Pakistan. The report reveals that more than 26,000 A-category and over 111,000 B-category criminals were apprehended in 2024. Furthermore, over 66,000 judicial absconders were arrested, comprising 6,907 in the A-category and 59,373 in the B-category. Intelligence-based operations (IBOs) also led to the arrest of over 35,000 habitual offenders, including 15,154 from the A-category and 20,485 from the B-category.  While Police in the province were racking up achievements relating to crimes and criminals, terrorism-related incidents in Punjab, Pakistan’s heartland province, recorded a rise in 2024, after a continuous decline over the preceding seven years, since 2017. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Punjab recorded a total of 59 terrorism-linked fatalities [Nine civilians, four Security Force (SF) personnel and 46 terrorists] in 27 terrorism-related incidents of killing in 2024, as against 48 fatalities (Seven civilians, four SF personnel and 37 terrorists) in 15 terrorism-related incidents of killing in 2023. Overall fatalities thus registered a 23 per cent increase. It is useful to recall, however, that the highest terrorism-related fatalities in the province were reported in 2013, at 1,656. Year 2022 registered just 11 terrorism-related fatalities (10 civilians and one terrorist), the lowest in the province since the commencement of its tryst with terrorism. The highest terrorism-related fatalities in the province were reported in 2013, at 1,656.  While terrorism-related fatalities in 2024 increased, as compared to the previous year, terrorism-linked incidents in 2024 remained low, with 54 incidents recorded, as against 82 in 2023. However, the number of major incidents of killing (each involving three or more fatalities) increased from 12 fatalities in two incidents in 2023, to 28 fatalities in five incidents in 2024. The most prominent major incidents in 2024 was reported on October 24, when 10 terrorists were killed during a clash with the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) of Punjab Police during an Intelligence based Operation (IBO) in the hilly area of Makadwala in the Mianwali District of Punjab. The operation was launched following intelligence reports of the presence of 10 to 15 terrorists in the region.  Other prominent major terrorism-linked incidents in the province in 2024 included: December 1: Four militants were killed and two Policemen sustained injuries during a clash, when a group of militants attacked the Chapri Police Station in Mianwali District. According to Police officers, almost 20 militants attacked the Chapri Police Station on the provincial border with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Police were on a high alert; as a result, the attack was successfully repulsed and four militants were killed. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. November 23: On November 23, the CTD killed three terrorists during an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in Chakri village, Rawalpindi District. The three were killed in the exchange of fire, while another two managed to escape. October 6: At least seven TTP terrorists were killed in an IBO by CTD near the Makarwal area of Mianwali District. Eight other terrorists managed to escape.  May 12: Four terrorists, involved in the killing of a Policemen, were shot dead during firing by their own accomplices in the Karol Jungle of Lahore, the provincial capital of Punjab.  Alarmed at the rising incidents of terrorism in different parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan, Punjab CTD identified 25,432 suspected terrorists in the province, according to an April 9, 2024, report, quoting sources. A report had also been compiled in which details of affiliations of these individuals with different banned organizations, as well as other particulars, were given. The CTD also started conducting surveillance of these persons. Sources elaborated, further, that, of the 25,432 identified persons, 8,926 were affiliated just one organization. Further, the report noted, “There are 968 such persons in Punjab who are inspired by the ideology of Daesh (Islamic State), a militant outfit designated as a terrorist organization by several countries of the world.” Moreover, by April 15, 2024, the Punjab CTD had completed geo-tagging of over 19,000 seminaries (madrassas) in the province and over 9,000 suspected terrorists were put on a watch list. The list included 65 individuals who had returned from Syria in recent years. Besides, CTD was monitoring 22 people, who had returned home after their release from Guantanamo Bay. According to the CTD record, there were 2,298 youth in Punjab who had received terrorist training in Afghanistan, while 1,566 individuals were identified as having trained within the country. Similarly, the record showed that 540 persons, who were released from Afghan jails, were also under the scanner.  As the mainstream Islamic militant outfits assert their presence, blasphemy cases continue to occur in the province, and radicalisation remains rampant. Blasphemy has been used by the Islamist fundamentalists and extremists as a weapon to target minorities. According to partial data compiled by SATP, eight blasphemy related incidents of violence were recorded during 2024, in which five persons were killed, while three persons sustained injuries. There were only three such incidents in 2023 resulting in one fatality and one injury. Three persons were killed in two blasphemy related incidents in 2022, and another three in such violence in 2021. In the most recent incident of a blasphemy attack, a 40-year-old Ahmadi man was killed in the Dhamial Police Station area of Rawalpindi (Rawalpindi District) in Punjab on December 5, 2024. According to a statement by Jamaat Ahamddiya spokesperson Aamir Mahmood, Tayyab was visiting his brother’s shop where he was fatally attacked. The attacker allegedly shouted anti-Ahmadi slurs while he carried out the attack. “Some days ago, extremists had also attacked his brother’s shop by throwing stones at it and were issuing constant threats. Tayyab’s brother was constantly receiving threats and very recently moved his family out of Rawalpindi,” the Jamaat Ahamddiya statement noted.  According to the Lahore based Center for Social Justice (CSJ)’s March 2024 report, at least 329 persons were accused of blasphemy under the law in 2023, out of which Punjab accounted for the highest number (179), followed by Sindh (79). According to CSJ, 2,449 persons have been accused of blasphemy between 1987 and 2023, among who Punjab registered the highest number of 1,770 cases, followed by 471 in Sindh. CSJ cited data from the Punjab Prison Department, indicating that, as of February 13, 2024, there were 587 prisoners in jail for blasphemy under sections 295-A, B and C of the Pakistan Penal Code, across the province. Among these, 515 were under trial, including 508 males, six females, and one juvenile prisoner.  Despite the Police and other law enforcement agencies in Punjab reporting a declining trend of crime, a recent report indicated a 5 per cent increase in criminal cases in 2024, as compared to 2023. Statistics published by Geo News on December 30 reflected a 5 per cent spike in criminal cases in Punjab, with 1,067,000 cases registered, as against 1,010,000 in the preceding year, an increase of 57,000 cases. According to Police records, a total of more than 1,067,000 cases were registered in the province during 11 and a half months, including 233 cases of murder during robbery, 1,262 cases of gang rape of women, and 3,880 cases of sexual assault against minors. Records also included 85 cases of kidnapping for ransom and 504 murders. While the Police and CTD large operational claims, several reports suggest that TTP is strengthening its base in Punjab. According to a January 29, 2024, report, TTP has launched a new wing, Ustarana (or Ustrani), comprising highly-trained, well-equipped and motivated cadres, to specifically target Punjab Police personnel and make inroads into the territory. At least three Dera Ghazi Khan (DG Khan) check posts — Lakhani, Jhangi and Triman — situated in the tribal areas along the provincial borders, have become especially vulnerable because of the emerging threat of TTP’s new Ustarana wing. A senior official told Dawn that the TTP, after launching Ustarana, has increased its influence, striking fear among the local tribal people.  TTP also demonstrated its presence in the capital city, Lahore, where a Policeman, Ghulam Rasool, was posted in the Police Lines, was shot dead by terrorists near the Tibbi Police Station on May 1, 2024. “It’s the third incident of targeted killing in a week’s time”, the Police stated. A TTP- affiliated channel claimed responsibility for the attack. On the same day, seven Policemen were injured in an overnight attack by terrorists at the Jhangi Check Post in the Taunsa District of Punjab. A TTP-affiliated channel claimed the attack. Further on May 5, two terrorists were killed in 'friendly fire' when a group of TTP cadres attacked CTD personnel in Rawalpindi city (Rawalpindi District), Punjab. The slain terrorists, Naseebullah and Ehsanullah, were identified as TTP fighters.  On May 30, 2024, the Provincial Police heightened the security level in the city following a terrorism threat to the headquarters of the Crime Investigation Agency (CIA), as well as four Police Stations and Police units in Lahore. The threat was issued by the Khurasani group of TTP, after which the Police leadership held a meeting to devise a strategy to counter any possible terrorist activity in the city. “It has been learnt reliably that the defunct TTP (Khurasani network), operating under its commander, Ali Zar, has planned terrorist activities to target the Police units in Lahore,” the special information report of the Punjab Police noted. The Police Stations the terrorist outfit allegedly intended to target included Mozang, Badami Bagh, Racecourse and Batapur. Similarly, the Liberty Market Facilitation Centre, the CIA Kotwali and the CIA headquarters, were among the targets of the terrorist organisation, according to the Police report. On January 4, 2025, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) released videos showing its cadres patrolling areas in southern Punjab. These visuals indicate the TTP's growing presence and expansion into Punjab, despite the security establishment’s claims of decimating terrorist groups in the province. With escalating TTP operations across the Afghan border into Pakistan and a significant deterioration in the security situation in the adjacent KP province, a spike in terrorist violence in Punjab is likely as well. Tushar Ranjan MohantyResearch Associate, Institute for Conflict Management