Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 04/Jul 20:44

Is India Ready For Fast Changing Myanmar Situation? – OpEd

In late June, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told his Myanmar counterpart U Than Shwe of India's, "serious concern about the impact of continuing violence in Myanmar." Jaishankar also called for an early return to the path of democratic transition in Myanmar and that India was, "open to engaging all stakeholders in addressing this situation."  One still gets the feeling that when it comes to dealing with the Burmese military junta, India is too mild in persuasion and nowhere near building the kind of pressure it can to bring the generals to the table. Perhaps it fears much pressure will push the generals towards China, but they are already in Beijing's pocket.  India has the unique advantage of connections to all important stakeholders -- the army, ethnic rebel groups , the democratic parties including Aung Saan Suu Kyi's NLD and the parallel National Unity Government which has now been allowed to open a liaison office in Delhi. So it is no longer a good idea to leave the Burnese peace process to the ASEAN which has totally failed to break the ice with its 5-point consensus. India will never be counted as an important power unless it plays a meaningful role in crisis situations such as Myanmar. Grandstanding by hosting events like G20 summits does not make India count as a power, timely intervention in a situation like Myanmar does. Let's recall 1971 and the role India played in the liberation of Bangladesh. That not only helped India emerge as the prima donna in South Asia but also as a country which cannot be wished away. Junta Looses Substantial Control The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M) , an independent advisory group co-founded by three UN officials, has observed that the ruling military junta has lost substantial territorial control to armed resistance and insurgent groups since the beginning of the 1027 offensive last year. The SAC-M reports argued thst the junta does not hold sufficient territory now to be considered a legitimate government.  The report said that the overall trajectory of the conflict in Myanmar since 2022 had been one of "expanding resistance control versus corresponding military junta losses". Since ethnic armed groups and anti-coup fighters known as People's Defence Forces (PDF) began Operation 1027 last year, they have made significant advances, taking military posts and border towns in the north and east, along the border with China and Thailand, as well as in the west where Myanmar meets Bangladesh and India, the SAC-M report said. The SAC-M said the generals had lost complete authority over townships covering 86 percent of the country's territory and home to 67 percent of Myanmar's 55 million people. "Resistance to junta control remains strong, widespread and deeply entrenched," the report observed. Assistance Association for Political Prisoners says 5161 civilians have been killed since the Feb 2021 coup and 20500 prisoners are held in jails -- all pointers to a serious human rights situation. Desperate measures by the military junta to turn the tide has not helped. Exit Strategy for Generals  This is the time India needs to hold out not just the olive branch but the promise of an exit strategy for the generals. Their survival- atleast as leaders of a cohesive military - depends on negotiations with the various stakeholders because, despite heavy arms purchases from atleast 13 countries (which many like SAC-M  wants stopped), the junta is in no position to regain lost territories.  The failure of the recent counter-offensive in the Rakhine (Arakan) state proves that. The junta may as yet not be in a 'negotiate-or- perish' situation but their position is not much better than that.