Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 08/Aug 20:03

J.D. Vance: A Joker For Victory Or An Unexpected Burden For Trump? – Analysis

At the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17th, Ohio Senator James David Vance accepted Donald Trump’s nomination, becoming the official Republican candidate for Vice President of the United States. Vance's nomination was initially met with enthusiasm as he is seen as a young and promising Republican politician who could enhance Trump’s chances of winning the election. However, just weeks after his nomination, enthusiasm has significantly waned as Vance's anti-Trump past, rigidly right-wing views, and low polling ratings came to light. Many are now questioning whether Vance is a good choice for Trump and the Republicans or a liability. Humble Origins J.D. Vance was born on August 2, 1984, in Middletown, Ohio, a town that was once a prosperous industrial hub in the Rust Belt but later experienced economic collapse due to the deindustrialization of the U.S. and the offshoring of companies and jobs. He was born into a family of Irish-Scottish descent. His childhood was marked by poverty and family problems, including his mother’s struggle with drug addiction. His parents divorced when he was a child. Political scientist John Ganz wrote that Vance “considered his background both an advantage and a disadvantage, an anti-snobbery that served him well as he entered the halls of power and wealth.” Vance found solace in the support of his grandparents, whom he called Mamaw and Papaw. Their influence played a key role in his life, laying the foundation for his future success. From Marine to Author and Politician After graduating from high school, Vance joined the U.S. Marines in 2003 and served in Iraq for six months, which helped him develop discipline and skills that would later benefit him in life. Upon returning from the military, he enrolled at Ohio State University, where he graduated in 2009 with a degree in political science and philosophy. He later earned a law degree from the elite Yale University, where he gained a broader understanding of the legal and social issues facing America. He then worked briefly as a corporate lawyer before moving to San Francisco to work as a venture capitalist. While studying, Vance began writing his memoir titled "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis." The book was published in 2016 and made Vance a well-known figure in the U.S. The work became a bestseller and sparked widespread discussion about the social and economic challenges facing the white working class in America. In the book, Vance details the hardships faced by his family and community, including addiction, poverty, and lack of opportunity. Simultaneously, the book is a personal story of overcoming these challenges through hard work, education, and family support. The memoir was adapted into a film in 2020, which received numerous awards. Following the success of his book, Vance entered the political arena. Although he initially resisted getting into politics (despite supporting Republicans), in 2021, he saw an opportunity and announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate as a Republican in Ohio. His political platform emphasized the revival of the American working class, criticism of big tech companies, and opposition to uncontrolled illegal immigration. In the election on November 8, 2022, he narrowly defeated Democratic candidate Tim Ryan with a 53-47% vote margin. Since January 2023, he has held the position of senator, making him the first senator from Ohio since the 1970s without prior government experience, a rarity in American politics. From Trump Opponent to Supporter Ahead of the 2016 presidential election, J.D. Vance was a vocal critic of Donald Trump. He publicly called Trump an "idiot" and said he was "reprehensible." Privately, he compared him to Adolf Hitler, which aligned perfectly with the anti-Trump campaign of the American establishment. Vance was hesitant to call the 2020 election, in which Trump lost, "stolen," instead using the term "unfair." He argued that Facebook's CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, orchestrated a vast conspiracy to ensure Joe Biden's victory over Trump. According to Vance, Zuckerberg spent $420 million to buy local election boards in key swing states in pro-Democratic districts to secure crucial votes for Biden. Over time, Vance transformed from a classic anti-Trump to a pro-Trump Republican. By last month, when he became Trump’s running mate, he had fully embraced the pro-Trump direction. This is clearly a case of political pragmatism to secure a high office, as Vance is not an impulsive politician who makes decisions instinctively but analytically. If a fatal assassination attempt were to occur against Trump during the campaign or potential term (which is not ruled out considering American political history and the present), Vance would be the one to step into Trump’s role. Why Did Trump Choose Vance? Trump chose Vance while still in the race against Biden, believing he could be useful, especially in swing states of the Midwest. The main reasons he selected Vance as his running mate are that he was the most conservative of all the proposed candidates, a passionate and loyal party soldier who is not inclined to compromise with Democrats except in exceptional situations. J.D. Vance is the complete opposite of the conciliatory and moderate Mike Pence and is definitely a person who will not steer Trump’s campaign towards moderate centrist voters but will push it towards right-wing voters. This is a clear indicator of the radicalization in American political life and society. In rhetorical and programmatic terms, the Democratic and Republican parties have never been more distant: they have become two parallel universes. However, the extent to which the policies of Democratic and Republican administrations differ is much smaller, though given the trends, it can be expected that a potential Trump 2.0 administration would pursue policies that are the complete opposite of the Biden administration (at least in domestic policy). Vance’s Ultra-Conservative Views Vance’s position as Trump’s running mate strengthens the perception of his boss as a “leader of the working class,” representing a calculated rebranding of Trump, who had been perceived as a businessman. For years, Vance has built an image as a fighter against globalization and the deindustrialization of the U.S., a political stance that could help Trump in key swing states in the Rust Belt. The most damaging aspect of Vance’s polling is his restrictive stance on abortion. He converted to Catholicism in 2019 and has since aligned with conservative Catholic factions, which influenced the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in June 2022 to overturn the constitutional right to abortion. Although he recently adopted Trump’s stance that the status of abortion should be left to the states, his previous public statements and Senate votes indicate otherwise. Vance has consistently advocated for a ban on abortion (which he compared to slavery), even in cases of rape or incest. He has vocally supported laws that allow police to monitor women who cross state lines to obtain abortions. He opposed laws protecting in vitro fertilization. This is in stark contrast to the views of most Americans. A recent poll showed that 61% of them support abortion for any reason, and 62% support access to in vitro fertilization. Vance is a staunch supporter of family values and advocates for strengthening families. At the same time, he condemns gender ideology and modern feminism. He praised Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s pro-natalist policies, which include tax breaks, subsidized loans, and other benefits for families with multiple children. He has proposed higher taxes for childless individuals. He is a vocal opponent of same-sex marriage. During the 2022 campaign, he blamed the sexual revolution for the breakdown of marriages because people today “change spouses like they change underwear.” Vance is against gun control, hormonal therapy for underage transgender individuals, and also opposes sending U.S. military aid to Ukraine. On the other hand, unlike most of his Republican colleagues, he supports government intervention in the economy and antitrust policies. Dilettante Statements Vance's lack of political skill is evident in his live appearances. In a 2021 interview on Fox News, he stated that the U.S. is run by "a bunch of childless cat ladies who are unhappy with their lives and want to make the rest of the country miserable." Such a chauvinistic comment may have elicited laughter from ordinary Republicans but also drew condemnation from his own female voter base as well as from the broader public. His rash statements also include that "the childless left has no commitment to the future of the country" and that Trump "should fire every mid-level bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state." Predictably, Trump softened the negative statements of his running mate, saying, for example, that Vance did not mean that childless and family-less people are less valuable, but rather that he is extremely family-oriented. Trump added that he knows people with families, big families, and without families, and sometimes people without families are superior and better than those with families. Vance's Advantages As Trump's candidate for Vice President of the United States, J.D. Vance could attract several key voter groups. Vance is known for his honesty and openly talks about his life experiences, which is rare for a mainstream politician. Authenticity can attract voters who are looking for politicians willing to step outside the usual political rhetoric and understand the problems of ordinary people. Vance is recognized for his focus on the issues of the (white) working class, especially those affected by deindustrialization. He advocates for economic reforms aimed at helping the working class and revitalizing devastated industrial areas. Such positions may attract voters interested in new jobs. As someone who has gained recognition in the Midwest, Vance could help mobilize voters in struggling industrial states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio. As someone who grew up in rural America, Vance could motivate voters from rural and semi-rural areas, who often feel marginalized by urban power centers like New York City and Los Angeles. Vance's political positions, including opposition to abortion and criticism of American big corporations, align with the values shared by conservative voters. As someone who opposes liberal cultural trends, Vance could attract voters who are concerned about the rapid changes in cultural norms and are seeking a conservative response. Vance is a vocal critic of the American political establishment and the bureaucratic apparatus, which can attract voters who are frustrated with the existing "worn-out" political structures and are seeking change. Vance's experience in the U.S. Marines could appeal to voters who value military service and prefer candidates with military experience, seeing it as a symbol of discipline and dedication. Vance's advantage is that he brings Trump connections to Silicon Valley in California, the high-tech core of the U.S. that has long been a Democratic stronghold, as well as to the cryptocurrency industry. Vance is a big supporter of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which have greatly changed the American financial market. He also supports artificial intelligence. These are all elements that have been lacking in Trump's team. Vance's Disadvantages Vance also has quite a few disadvantages. His previous criticisms of Trump could hurt him, especially if voters believe he "changed" his views due to political pressures or personal interests. Although Vance became known as a writer and political commentator, his political experience and experience in government institutions are limited. This could be a drawback in the eyes of voters who prefer candidates with more experience in politics and government. Vance's successful academic and professional career, including his graduation from Yale, could position him in a way that some voters might perceive as elitist. Such a perception could be problematic among voters who are skeptical of elites and feel neglected. Although "Hillbilly Elegy" was a success, it has also been criticized for its portrayal of life in the Midwest. Critics argue that the book does not provide enough analysis of structural problems and may contribute to negative stereotypes. While he may attract certain voter groups (conservatives, moderate liberals, white people, members of the armed forces, lawyers), Vance may face difficulties connecting with other demographic groups that do not share his views, including urban and minority voters such as Latinos and African Americans. Most importantly, polling data shows that Vance may be turning into a burden for Trump in the Midwest, where he should be bringing crucial votes. A July CNN poll showed that only 28% of voters in Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin view Vance positively, compared to 44% who view him negatively. Recently, Vance told Republican donors in a Minneapolis suburb that the appointment of Kamala Harris instead of Biden as the presidential candidate is some sort of "sudden political blow" and definitely a good thing for the Democrats. This contradicts Trump, who believes that Harris's appointment instead of Biden has almost no impact on the election. Trump dislikes being contradicted more than anything. If disagreements with Trump continue, it could lead to tensions that would harm the Trump-Vance ticket. Some even go so far as to say that Vance might have to leave the race, but this is unlikely given that the election is fast approaching. Even Trump's associates admit that Vance's performance has not been ideal. 538 polls measuring Vance's popularity have shown that nearly 38% of respondents view him negatively, while his approval rating is at 32%. Despite the weak ratings, Vance manages to raise funds and sell out venues during the campaign, while printed editions of his novel "Hillbilly Elegy" and the eponymous film have become extremely popular, suggesting that some voters view him in a more positive light. Trump has defended his new running mate, for whom he said at the end of July that he has tremendous support. According to Republican sources, Trump has privately encouraged Vance, telling him not to give up. Joker or Burden? The history of American presidential elections shows that rarely has a vice-presidential candidate been a factor that attracted or repelled a large number of voters. However, sometimes vice-presidential candidates have been jokers for victory or burdens that have prevented it. In the crucial 1960 election, John F. Kennedy's vice-presidential candidate, Lyndon Johnson, as a "master of political survival," helped JFK win several important Southern states that could have gone to the Republicans. In the 1972 election, George McGovern's vice-presidential candidate, Thomas Eagleton, had to withdraw from the candidacy due to revelations that he had previously undergone electroshock therapy as part of treatment for depression. In 2008, John McCain's vice-presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, due to her inexperience and dilettantism, became the subject of ridicule by the American public. This is not surprising given her statements, such as that she could see Russia from her window in Alaska. Despite Vance's strengths and weaknesses, which play a role, ultimately voters will check or not check the Trump and Vance box on the ballot primarily based on their views of Trump. Despite his political skill and shortcomings, Vance cannot overshadow Trump, nor could any other candidate. Trump is the biggest political star in America, both positively and negatively. In the end, it is the president who makes the key decisions and directs U.S. state policy, and the vice president is the first executor of that policy. All reasonable voters understand this.