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Indonesia’s Foreign Policy In The Prabowo Era: Balancing Non-Alignment And Regional Leadership – Analysis

Under the leadership of President-Elect Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia finds itself in a complex geopolitical landscape. The nation’s historical commitment to an independent and proactive foreign policy, known as “Bebas dan Aktif,” remains crucial as it navigates the influences of major global powers such as the USA, Russia, China, the UK, France, and the EU. As Indonesia strives to uphold this principle, it must also establish itself as a significant player in the international arena, addressing vital regional issues such as the crisis in Myanmar, the South China Sea dispute, the tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and the implications of the AUKUS security pact. This essay asserts that by reinforcing its dedication to non-alignment and leveraging its strategic position, Indonesia can enhance its global role while safeguarding its sovereignty and national interests.  Indonesia’s foreign policy has long been rooted in the principles of “Bebas dan Aktif,” formulated by the country’s first President, Sukarno, and Vice President, Hatta. This policy sought to ensure that Indonesia would not be subservient to any major power bloc while actively engaging in international affairs to promote peace and stability. Over several decades, this approach has allowed Indonesia to navigate the tensions of the Cold War, regional conflicts, and the changing dynamics of global power. Although some administrations have occasionally leaned towards specific alliances, the overarching commitment to non-alignment has remained a consistent feature of Indonesia’s foreign policy. The significance of preserving an independent and proactive foreign policy cannot be overstated. For Indonesia, non-alignment offers several advantages. Firstly, it safeguards national sovereignty and enables the country to make autonomous decisions based on its interests rather than external influences. This flexibility is imperative in a world where geopolitical alliances can swiftly shift. Secondly, an independent stance empowers Indonesia to avoid being entangled in power struggles that could potentially jeopardise its security, stability, and economy. By maintaining a neutral position, Indonesia can assume the role of a mediator and bridge-builder, thereby contributing to global peace and stability. However, non-alignment is not without its challenges. The current geopolitical landscape presents numerous pressures from major powers. The United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy, which aims to counter China’s influence, places Indonesia in a delicate position. Similarly, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) offers significant economic opportunities but also raises concerns about dependency and sovereignty. Russia’s growing influence in Southeast Asia adds another layer of complexity, while the roles of the United Kingdom, France, and the European Union in regional affairs further complicate Indonesia’s diplomatic calculus. Balancing economic interests with political independence is a critical challenge for Indonesia. The country must navigate these dynamics carefully to avoid compromising its non-alignment policy. Moreover, regional conflicts and alliances, particularly within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) framework, require astute diplomacy. ASEAN’s unity and centrality are crucial for regional stability, and Indonesia, as a leading member, must play a proactive role in maintaining this cohesion. Several key regional issues directly impact Indonesia’s foreign policy. The crisis in Myanmar, sparked by the military coup in 2021, has significant implications for regional stability. Indonesia, as a prominent ASEAN member, has been actively involved in mediating the crisis and providing humanitarian aid. This engagement reflects Indonesia’s commitment to regional peace and its willingness to take a leadership role in addressing complex issues. The South China Sea dispute is another critical challenge. The territorial claims and strategic importance of the region have led to tensions between China and several ASEAN members, including Indonesia. While Indonesia is not a claimant in the dispute, it has a vested interest in ensuring that the South China Sea remains a zone of peace and stability. Indonesia’s stance has been to promote peaceful resolution through dialogue and adherence to international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Korean Peninsula remains a flashpoint in East Asian security. The nuclear tensions between North and South Korea, along with the involvement of the United States and China, pose significant challenges to regional stability. Indonesia has historically supported denuclearisation and peace efforts on the Korean Peninsula. Its diplomatic engagement in this area underscores its commitment to global non-proliferation and regional security. The AUKUS security pact, involving Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, has introduced new dynamics into the Indo-Pacific region. While aimed at countering China’s influence, AUKUS has raised concerns about an arms race and increased militarisation in the region. Indonesia’s response to AUKUS has been cautious, emphasising the need for regional security arrangements that promote peace and stability rather than confrontation. To enhance its role in the international arena, Indonesia must adopt several strategies. Strengthening regional leadership within ASEAN is paramount. Indonesia should continue to promote ASEAN unity and centrality, leading regional initiatives on security, economy, and the environment. This leadership will reinforce Indonesia’s position as a key player in Southeast Asia and bolster regional stability.  Expanding diplomatic efforts and partnerships beyond traditional alliances is another crucial strategy. Indonesia should engage in South-South cooperation, building stronger ties with emerging economies in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. These partnerships can diversify Indonesia’s diplomatic and economic engagements, reducing dependency on major powers.  Additionally, enhancing Indonesia’s global influence through active participation in multilateral institutions is vital. Indonesia should play a proactive role in organisations such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and other international bodies. By championing global issues like climate change, human rights, and sustainable development, Indonesia can assert its influence and contribute to global governance.  Several case studies illustrate Indonesia’s potential to lead on the global stage. Indonesia’s role in the G20, for example, has showcased its ability to contribute to global economic governance. Similarly, its leadership in climate change negotiations, particularly during the Paris Agreement discussions, highlights its commitment to global environmental sustainability. Furthermore, Indonesia’s successful mediation in regional conflicts, such as its involvement in the peace process in the Philippines’ Southern region, demonstrates its capacity to act as a peace broker. To realise this vision, President-Elect Prabowo should consider specific policy recommendations. Firstly, reinforcing Indonesia’s commitment to non-alignment is crucial. This involves articulating a clear foreign policy doctrine that emphasises independence, sovereignty, and active engagement in global affairs. Investing in diplomatic capacity and international presence is also essential. Indonesia should strengthen its diplomatic corps, enhance its embassies’ capabilities, and increase its participation in international forums.  Moreover, leveraging Indonesia’s unique position as a bridge between different cultures and regions can amplify its global influence. Indonesia’s diverse cultural heritage and strategic location at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific provide a valuable platform for fostering dialogue and cooperation among various nations. In conclusion, it can be argued that the independent and assertive nature of Indonesia’s foreign policy continues to serve as a fundamental component of its international strategy. With the imminent presidency of Prabowo, there exists an opportunity to fortify this policy to effectively navigate the intricacies of the contemporary geopolitical arena. By upholding non-alignment, actively pursuing diplomacy, and addressing pertinent regional challenges, Indonesia stands to augment its position as a notable participant on the global platform. This particular approach will safeguard Indonesia’s status as a sovereign and influential nation, while also contributing to the promotion of global tranquillity, stability, and prosperity. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own. References Anwar, Dewi Fortuna. “Indonesia’s Strategic Culture: Ketahanan Nasional, Wawasan Nusantara, and Hankamrata.” Asian Survey, vol. 35, no. 8, 1995, pp. 700-717. Emmers, Ralf. “Indonesia’s Role in ASEAN: A Case of Incomplete and Sectorial Leadership.” The Pacific Review, vol. 27, no. 4, 2014, pp. 543-562. 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