Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 23/Aug 10:12

A Rational Choice: Syrian Support For Iran During The Iraqi–Iranian War – OpEd

The Iraqi–Iranian War was a prolonged military conflict between Iraq and Iran from September 1980 to August 1988, fuelled by long-standing political, territorial, and ideological disputes between the two neighbouring Muslim nations. The war began when Iraq, under Ba’athist President Saddam Hussain, invaded Iran, under Islamist Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, to gain control over the economically significant Shatt al-Arab River as well as the oil-rich and Arab-populated Iranian province of Khuzestan. Iraq’s war efforts were openly financed by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Gulf Arab states and was tacitly supported by the United States and the Soviet Union, while Iran’s major allies were Syria and Libya. Despite its ethnic, cultural, historical, geographical, and ideological closeness with Iraq, Syria chose to support Iran during the war. The phenomenon can be well explained through the rational choice model of foreign policy analysis. Rational Choice Model The rational choice model, as applied to international affairs, seeks to introduce a more rigorous methodology and sound approach that could use the basic law of choice to assess the process and outcome of foreign policy decision-making. According to this theory, individuals, and by extension, states, weigh their interests to make choices that will provide them with the greatest benefit. They make their choices by considering what will serve them the best. From this perspective, the maximization of utility by actors is the ultimate aim of foreign policy. Similarities between Iraq and Syria Iraq and Syria have much in common. Ethnic Arabs constitute the majority of the population in both countries. Arabic is the official language of both countries, and both are primarily populated by Muslims. Both countries contain significant numbers of minority populations, including the Kurds, the Assyrians, and the Turkmens. The territories of the two countries comprise the historic land of Mesopotamia, a major center of ancient civilization. Up until the First World War (1914–1918), both territories were part of the Ottoman Empire. During the First World War, the Allied Powers occupied the Arab territories of the Ottoman Empire, including Iraq and Syria. During the post-war San Remo Conference in Italy in April 1920, Britain and France received mandates to administer Iraq and Syria, respectively. Iraq was eventually granted full independence in 1932 under the terms of the Anglo–Iraqi Treaty. Meanwhile, the independence of Syria from France was declared in 1943. Syria and Iraq established diplomatic relations on 8 November 1945. At that time, Iraq played an important role in helping Syria receive international recognition and become a member of the United Nations (UN). During the post-Second World War period, the Iraqi and Syrian political landscapes were characterized by the rise of Ba’athism, a particular form of Arab nationalism and pan-Arabism, with particular emphasis on the creation of a unified Arab state, the realization of Arab socialism, and the dominance of a vanguard party over a revolutionary government. The Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party was established in Syria in 1947, and gradually became popular among the Iraqis and the Syrians. In 1963, the Syrian Regional Branch of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party seized power in Syria in a coup d’état, but the military wing of the party overthrew the civilian wing in another coup in 1966, resulting in a serious split between the Iraqi and Syrian branches of the Ba’ath Party. In 1968, the Iraqi Regional Branch of the party seized power in Iraq via a coup d’état, and the inter-party struggle transformed into an inter-state conflict. Nevertheless, the two countries got along in the early 1970s, largely as a result of their common opposition to Israel. During the Arab–Israeli War of 1973, when Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack against Israeli forces to reclaim the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights from Israeli occupation, Iraq sent a 60,000-strong expeditionary force which fought alongside the Syrians. Deterioration of Relations Iraqi–Syrian relations deteriorated during the Arab–Israeli War of 1973, when Iraq sent troops to the Golan Heights in order to bolster Syria’s crumbling position, but it had to withdraw when Syrian President Hafiz al-Assad accepted UN Resolutions 242 and 338. Afterwards, Iraq refused to cooperate with Syria unless Damascus denounced the resolutions, which implied recognition of Israel. Furthermore, the Syrian intervention in the Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990) in 1976 on the side of the rightist Christians against the leftist Muslim–Palestinian alliance aggravated tensions between Baghdad and Damascus. Iraq was apprehensive that the Syrians might succeed in bringing Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinians under its control, transforming Syria into a major regional power center that could rival Baghdad. After a brief thaw in 1978, relations between the two countries worsened even more when Saddam Hussain came to power in Iraq in 1979; he accused the Syrians of complicity in a plot to unseat him. Both Saddam Hussein and Hafiz al-Assad claimed to represent the “true” Ba’ath Party and challenged the credentials of the other. Reportedly, the two leaders traded personal insults, which further soured their relationship. Both countries allowed each other’s political opponents to organize on their territory and supported Kurdish insurgent attacks on each other’s territory. For example, Syria became a safe haven for those who opposed the Iraqi government, especially the Iraqi Ba’athists who had lost the power struggle against Saddam. In August 1980, Syrian diplomats were ordered to leave Iraq after Iraqi authorities claimed to have found large quantities of explosives from the Syrian Embassy in Baghdad. Two years later in 1982, Syria severed diplomatic relations with Iraq, accusing the Iraqi government of supporting the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, the main opposition force in the country. These political disputes and personal animosities between Saddam and Hafiz resulted in border tensions between the countries. Moreover, the division of water from the Euphrates River, which has originated in Turkey and flows through Syria and central Iraq, has been another source of tensions between the two. Rational Choice over Ethno-Political Affinity Along with the reasons mentioned above, the Iraqi–Syrian relations were strained due to their traditional rivalry for pre-eminence in the Arab World. While formulating Syrian foreign policy, the Syrian government took into account the international and regional systems and the relative power of Iraq vis-à-vis Syria. Apparently, Saddam envisioned Iraq as the leader of the Arab World. On the other hand, Hafiz al-Assad’s main goal was to maintain a balance in the Arab world, where Syria would accumulate power and become a major regional power center. In September 1980, taking advantage of the post-revolutionary chaos in Iran in the aftermath of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, Iraq invaded Iran, seeking to establish control over the Shatt al-Arab River and the Iranian province of Khuzestan. The Iraqi invasion of Iran was supported by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and most other Arab states, and Syria found itself isolated in the region. Damascus feared that if Iraq succeeded in its war against Iran, it would become the dominant regional power and threaten Syria in future. Accordingly, Syria sought to prevent such an outcome by balancing against Iraq through forming an alliance with Iran. In spite of the ethnic, religious, and ideological differences between Iran and Syria, the countries had maintained a working partnership since the late 1940s. After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Syria was the first Arab state to recognize the newly established Islamic Republic. After the outbreak of the Iraqi–Iranian War, Syria provided Iran with substantial military, economic and political support. During the war, Syria supplied Iran with large quantities of weapons, including howitzers, ground-to-air missiles, anti-tank missiles, anti-tank rockets, and anti-aircraft guns, and sent teams of ordnance experts to Iran. Also, Syria provided Iran with medical supplies, sent physicians to Iran, and treated wounded Iranian soldiers in Syrian hospitals. Moreover, Syria allowed Iran to use Syrian airspace and air bases for conducting strikes against Iraq, and provided Iran with valuable intelligence support. Furthermore, Syria condemned the Iraqi invasion of Iran and shut down an Iraqi pipeline in 1982, seriously harming Iraq’s economic potential. Last but not the least, Syria acted as a conduit for the secret supply of Soviet weapons and intelligence support to Iran. Syria’s support for Iran during the war originated from a rational choice made by the Syrian policymakers. Syria viewed itself as a champion of the rights of the Palestinians and sought to reclaim the Golan Heights from Israel. None of the Arab states was willing to assist Syria in realizing the latter, so Damascus seemed to have found a partner in Iran due to Iran’s strong Pro-Palestinian and anti-Israeli stance. When Iraq invaded Iran, balancing against Iraq emerged as another important reason for Syria to ally with Iran. So, Iraq and Syria were locked into a struggle for influence in the Arab World, and fearing Iraqi domination, Syria chose to support Iran against Iraq during the Iraqi–Iranian War. Conclusion Iraq and Syria shared a number of similarities in terms of ethnicity, culture, and political ideology in the 1980s. Yet, these similarities were outweighed by strategic considerations, regional power struggle, and personal ambitions as well as grievances. These factors propelled the Syrians to make a rational choice to support Iran against its Iraqi ethnic brethren during the Iraqi–Iranian War. Thus, the rational choice model can explain the phenomenon of Syrian support for Iran during the Iraqi–Iranian War.