Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 01/Sep 23:02

Japan-China Tensions Heat Up Over Airspace Violation – Analysis

Tensions have returned to Japan-China relations despite strong economic relations, which in recent times have seen serious fault-lines. China’s aggressive intent as demonstrated in its recent activities and behaviour has riled its ties with many of its neighbouring countries, including India. Dialogue and diplomacy are on-going to stem any escalation to be blown out of proportion but have proved to be ineffective. In the latest Chinese misadventure that has irked Japan, aChinese military intelligence gathering aircraft entered Japan’s territorial airspace off remote islands in the East China Seaon 26 August, thereby violating Japan’s airspace. This territorial violation by China is the first time Tokyo accused the People’s Liberation Army Air Force of an airspace violation and the latest in a series of events amplifying tensions between the two countries, thereby a new irritant in frosty relations between China and Japan. According to Japan’s military, over the past two decades, it has increasingly faced foreign aircraft encroachments. In fiscal 2023, Japan’s Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets to intercept foreign planes on 669 occasions, about 479 or 70 per cent of the time Chinese military aircraft, more than three times the number of such responses two decades ago, though those did not include airspace violation. From April to June 2024, 105 of the 159 SDF scrambles concerned Chinese aircraft. Though the intrusion was brief, Japan called the incident as “absolutely unacceptable” serious violation of Japan’s territorial rights and thus a threat to national security. The Joint Staff of the Japan’s Ministry of Defense said that the Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance plane briefly entered Japan, violating the Japanese airspace above the Danjo Islands in Goto, Nagasaki Prefcture, off the south-western coast of Japan’s southern main island of Kyushu for two minutes while circling around the area, posing a security threat to Japan. Japan scrambled fighter jets and warned the Chinese plane to leave. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said it was the first time the Japanese Self Defense Force detected a Chinese military aircraft in Japan’s airspace. As expected, Japanese military officials started analysing such Chinese military activity and prepare Japan to face possible future happenings. Hayashi expressed concern that China’s military activity around Japan in recent years had become “increasingly expanding and intensifying,” and that Japan will continue watching Chinese military activity and do its utmost to respond to possible anti-airspace violations. Japan’s Defense Ministry officials started to determine whether the Chinese military plane intentionally or mistakenly violated Japanese airspace. In response to Japan’s response and in a damage control initiative, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian clarified China has “no intention” to violate any country’s airspace and that competent authorities are verifying the situation. Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Masataka Okano summoned acting Chinese Ambassador Shi Yong to strongly protest the airspace violation. Okano also demanded that China take steps to avoid such incidents. Actually, the issue is more serious as the single incident of airspace violation suggests. There are more serious implications for Japan to worry about. Japan is concerned about growing military cooperation between the Chinese and Russian air forces, and China’s increasingly assertive activity around Japanese waters and airspace. Japan is now forced to significantly reinforce defences of south-western Japan, including remote islands that are considered key to Japan’s defence strategy in the region. Japan’s decision in 2022 to begin a significant increase in defence spending stemmed from the perception of a steadily rising threat from China that had grown in Japan. The National Security Strategy document published that year described the regional security environment as being “severe and complex” as it had ever been since the end of World War II. Japan thus decided to target a defence-related budget equalling to 2 per cent of GDP by 2027. Part of the increased spending has been funnelled towards reinforcing Japan’s outlying islands, which are viewed as a key part of the national defence strategy. Interestingly, the incursion took place a day before Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser, was set to visit Beijing to hold talks with senior Chinese officials. The two sides discussed the tense issues such as the status of Taiwan, the de facto independent island claimed by Beijing, and US export controls of advanced technologies to China. It is being interpreted by analysts that China’s latest airspace violation was a message from China challenging Japan’s delineation of its territorial border. China asserts control over a large continental shelf in the East China Sea, with its outer edge extending close to the Danjo Islands area, where the Chinese plane was spotted. Things are messy this time in Japan-China ties. The day when the airspace violation took place, graffiti was discovered at the Yasukuni Shrine war-commemoration site in Tokyo using Chinese characters that appeared to read “toilet.” Japan quickly summoned Chinese Embassy representatives and urged them to prevent future incursions into Japanese airspace, as well as the revered Yasukuni Shrine experience. Source: Illustration Courtesy The Asahi Shimbun Territorial airspace covers areas extending about 22 kilometers from a country’s coastline. Under international law, free navigation in territorial airspace without permission is not permitted. Japan had reason to protest as the military Y-9 aircraft was an intelligence-gathering plane. In 2012 and again in 2017, non-military Chinese aircraft had also violated Japanese airspace. Both flew in airspace around Japan’s Senkaku Islands, which China also claims sovereignty over and call the Daioyu Islands, in Okinawa Prefecture. Japanese officials were surprised that this time it occurred near Nagasaki, not near the Senkaku Islands. Some Japanese officials were still ready to accept the Chinese intrusion not intentional because the plane stayed for a short while and thus could have entered Japanese airspace by mistake because the pilot probably was in panic and took a sharp angle to retreat from Japanese airspace. Others had reason to feel that the plane was on an intelligence gathering mission as Japan has two Air SDF monitoring radar facilities in the area, so close to the airspace of the Japanese mainland. Though the Chinese Ministry of Defense clarified that China has no intention to violate any country’s airspace, the 26 August incident involving the Y-2 plane clearly violated international law and took a high-risk action that could have resulted in it being shot down. Japanese restraint prevented a possible escalation. Defence personnel are not expected to examine whether such incidents are intentional or mistake and normally act as per the law. In July 2024, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that a Japanese vessel had sailed through Chinese territorial waters without permission, and that Beijing had asked Tokyo to prevent a recurrence. Japan had clarified that the incident was a “technical error”. Like the Japanese, the Chinese also accused Japan as it was a Maritime SDF vessel and therefore suspected the Japanese side had other intentions. In the social media the 26 August airspace violation around the Danjo Islands is seen as a “payback” and “tit-for-tat” mentality for the MSDF’s action in July. The frictions between Japan and China on multiple issues need to be understood in the larger context of increasing rivalry between the US and China and Japan as a pawn for China in this US-China rivalry for global dominance and one-upmanship over the other. Since the days of Abe Shinzo, Yoshihide Suga and now Kishida Fumio (slated to leave office in September) and possibly whosoever succeeds Kishida, the US and Japan have continuously strengthened the US-centred security framework, including the strengthening of command and control coordination between the US forces in Japan and the three wings of Japan’s SDF. Japan has also increased defense spending and formed a “quasi alliance” with the Philippines, which has had run-ins with China in the South China Sea. When a new Prime Minister assumes office in September, it could be a good moment for a reset of the relationship between Japan and China.