Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 10/Sep 15:20

US Alliances In The Indo-Pacific: Counterbalancing China’s Rise? – OpEd

As China's influence grows across the Indo-Pacific, the United States has been doubling down on its alliances in the region to maintain a balance of power and counter Beijing’s assertive moves. The Indo-Pacific, home to some of the world's busiest sea lanes and economic hubs, is increasingly becoming the epicenter of geopolitical competition between the two superpowers. In this high-stakes contest, US alliances, both old and new, play a crucial role in shaping the region's security architecture and ensuring a rules-based international order. However, while these alliances have the potential to effectively counterbalance China's rise, they also face significant challenges that could determine their success or failure. The United States has long relied on a network of alliances and partnerships to secure its interests in the Indo-Pacific. The "hub-and-spokes" model, centered on bilateral security arrangements with key allies like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, has served as the backbone of US strategy in the region. In recent years, however, Washington has sought to evolve and expand these alliances to respond to China's growing military, economic, and diplomatic influence. This has led to initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which brings together the US, Japan, India, and Australia, and the AUKUS pact, a trilateral security arrangement with Australia and the United Kingdom focused on advanced defense cooperation. These efforts are primarily aimed at countering China’s assertiveness, particularly in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, where Beijing has sought to expand its territorial claims and military presence. By deepening military cooperation, enhancing joint exercises, and increasing intelligence sharing, the US and its allies aim to deter any potential aggression and ensure freedom of navigation in these critical waters. Moreover, these alliances are not merely military in nature; they encompass a broad range of areas, including trade, technology, and infrastructure, where the US seeks to provide a viable alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its growing influence across Asia and beyond. While these alliances offer a robust mechanism to counterbalance China, their effectiveness is not guaranteed. One of the main challenges lies in the diverse interests and priorities of the countries involved. The Quad, for example, brings together four democracies with distinct strategic concerns and varying levels of economic dependence on China. While Japan and Australia have been more vocal in supporting a US-led approach to countering China, India has traditionally been cautious, balancing its engagement with the US against its own complex relationship with Beijing. Similarly, South Korea, despite being a close US ally, remains wary of being drawn into any potential conflict involving China, its largest trading partner. The challenge for the US is to align these diverse interests and maintain unity among its allies, especially in times of crisis. This requires not just military collaboration but also diplomatic finesse, economic engagement, and a nuanced understanding of each country's regional calculus. Washington must offer compelling incentives, both in terms of security guarantees and economic opportunities, to ensure that its allies remain committed to a shared strategic vision. This also means addressing their concerns, such as India's apprehensions about overly militarizing the Quad or Japan's concerns about being left alone to confront China in the East China Sea. China, for its part, is not standing still. Beijing is leveraging its economic might, diplomatic outreach, and military modernization to counter US influence and divide its allies. China's strategy is multifaceted, ranging from economic coercion — as seen in its trade disputes with Australia — to diplomatic engagement, as it seeks to weaken alliances like the Quad by courting members like India. Additionally, China is expanding its own security partnerships through initiatives like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and its growing ties with countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Beijing's goal is to build a multipolar regional order where US influence is diminished, and its own vision of security and development prevails. However, the US still holds significant advantages that it can leverage to maintain its alliances in the Indo-Pacific. America's military capabilities, technological prowess, and extensive network of diplomatic and economic partnerships provide it with the tools to shape the regional environment. The key will be to effectively integrate these elements into a coherent strategy that not only counters China's rise but also addresses the underlying factors that drive regional states' engagement with Beijing. This involves promoting a positive vision for the region — one that is inclusive, rules-based, and aligned with the aspirations of its diverse states. In conclusion, US alliances in the Indo-Pacific represent a formidable counterbalance to China's rise, but they are not without their complexities. To sustain these alliances and ensure their effectiveness, the US must navigate the diverse interests of its partners, offer credible economic and security alternatives, and present a compelling narrative that aligns with the region's long-term goals. The outcome of this great power competition will not only shape the future of the Indo-Pacific but also define the contours of global order in the 21st century. The stakes are high, and the path forward is fraught with challenges, but the US and its allies have the capacity to shape a future where their shared values and interests can prevail.