Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 09/Sep 15:33

Reviving The Bangladesh-Pakistan Bloc – OpEd

The latest changes in Bangladesh defensive plans, especially the acquisition of a large quantity of artillery ammunition and other equipment from Pakistan represent an important qualitative shift in the regional power configuration. This decision that is made shortly after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh and formation of an interim one signifies a likelihood of revival of Bangladeshi-Pakistani relations as well as a direct threat to India while provoking questions about emerging shifts in the strategic landscape of south Asian region and direct challenge to India. Bangladesh- Pakistan Relations warmed after being strained for years Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations remained strained for a fairly long period of time, mainly because of Sheikh Hasina and her governments inclination towards India and the efforts to cement relations with New Delhi. But more changes seem to be in the offing particularly now that Hasina, the key player, has left the scene. The new interim regime headed by the Noble Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus has appeared to be more proactive and looking forward to establishing relations with Islamabad as seen by the new arms deals. No sooner was the verdict of the polls given, the incumbent Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shahbaz Sharif did not waste anytime but actively offered his country’s readiness for more cooperation in Bangladesh - Pakistan relations to be fostered in bilateral ties. This thaw in relations is possible at a time when Pakistan is seeking to re-establish the dominance in the region after experiencing a frosty relationship with Bangladesh. The scale of the arms deal is very staggering. Bangladesh has procured over 40000 rounds of artillery ammunition, 2000 tank ammunition rounds, 40 tons of RDX explosive, and 2900 high intensity projectiles, differing from previously, with large demand. These have certainly indicated that Bangladesh has commenced a new process of augmentation of its defense might in the region, and the nature and time frame of this deal point more to a much deeper change in the country’s strategic direction. India which has a long porous border of about 4,000 km with Bangladesh has historically considered the country a strategic partner in the region. But these advancements have raised some concerns in New Delhi with relation to the impact of the defense deal signed between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Indian security agencies have reported worry especially given the backdrop in which this deal was negotiated—just weeks after Hasina left for India amidst protestation which some think enjoyed support of Pakistan and China. Protests which led to Hasina’s resignation were accompanied by major anti-Indian sentiments. Claims have been made regarding the part played by Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing, the Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), in these protests and the charge made that these organizations turned people’s dissatisfaction with domestic concerns into calls for a regime change more to the taste of Pakistan and China. The fact is that the secession of these elements back into the Bangladeshi political process symbolizes a deeper change in its foreign policies that could work against India’s strategic interests. Additionally, the increased hatred towards India in Bangladesh especially in the recent past, occasions like flooding in Feni are due to India released water from their dam and thus has worsened the relations between two countries. Protests staged in front of Indian Visa Application Centre in Satkhira in recent past due to delay in visa processing are evidence of problematic issues that India has to encounter while sustaining this friendship in the context of such fluctuating dynamics. The defense deal with Pakistan in addition to escalation of hatred slogan towards India makes one to wonder whether Bangladesh is gradually shifting loyalty in a way that will pose a threat to India strategic diplomacy by shifting its allegiances in a way that endangers India’s strategic endowment to Bangladesh. Pakistan’s effort to regain influence in Bangladesh poses a major problem for India, as it struggles to retain its dominance in the region. Moving forward Bangladesh has very much to grapple with in the post-Hasina political terrain that has been set, and not least in terms of the regional and South Asian balance of power. One of the signs of a possible changes of the bases of creating new alliances and capabilities of exerting an impact of the South Asian country are the recent defense agreements with Pakistan. It is a clarion call for India where India, it will have to formulate its strategy in such a manner so as to secure its interests while continuing with their friendship with Bangladesh. In the coming months there will be an observation on the steps which is taken with more attention from India, Pakistan and other countries. These dynamics have the explicit concern to overhaul the strategic parameters in South Asia in the decade ahead in terms of neighborhood relations as well as engagements that could impact beyond the South Asian continent.