Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 08/Sep 03:50

How Will Penang DAP Fare Without Chow? – Analysis

All eyes are on Penang’s Democratic Action Party (DAP) as it prepares for its state elections on 22 September, where the next state DAP chief will be named. This election is of particular interest because the state chairman typically also serves as the chief minister. However, this convention was not followed during Lim Guan Eng’s tenure from 2008 to 2018. Penang chief minister and DAP state chairman Chow Kon Yeow had also recently declined his nomination for the party polls, despite receiving nominations from at least two divisions to contest. He said his decision to decline was his first step in initiating his succession plan. This triggered a wave of speculation about the future direction of both his role and the party’s position in the state. Some analysts have interpreted Chow’s move as a strategic decision intended to address upcoming challenges and to facilitate a smooth transition, reflecting his extensive experience and political acumen. The DAP stalwart, who has been holding the post for the past 25 years, since 1999, is without a doubt a veteran of politics who can read the room well. While Chow’s withdrawal to contest in the state line-up may potentially lead to his removal as the head of Penang DAP, there is no question that the decision was made after careful consideration. This decision reflects DAP's adherence to the centralisation of power, where unity and loyalty to the decisions made by the party’s secretary-general Anthony Loke is indisputable. It is unknown if Loke’s decisions were made in consultation with Lim Guan Eng, DAP’s national chairman. Loke had, without missing a beat, responded to Chow’s decision to sit out of the state polls by giving assurance that Chow would continue his tenure as CM until the end of his term. Whether or not this plays out also remains to be seen—the anti-Chow faction, presumably led by a former chief minister remains a strong force. Chow's decision comes at a difficult time. Nevertheless, his choice of not contesting is a right move, no matter how difficult a choice it was. There is simply no winning against the tension and undercurrent that has been brewing since Chow’s second term as CM. The upcoming state annual general meeting (AGM) will see delegates from various divisions casting their votes to elect 20 leaders to the state committee. Following this, the newly elected committee members will select the state chief and other key office bearers. Chow's refusal to contest, despite his eligibility, appears to be a deliberate move that could either be a strategic retreat or a sign of internal discord within the party's upper echelons. Chow’s calculated gamble At its core, Chow's decision might reflect a calculated gamble or it could be due to other reasons. It could be an attempt to project an image of disinterest in internal power struggles, thereby positioning himself as a unifying figure above factional frays. Yet, this move could also signify mounting internal pressures or a lack of confidence in securing continued support from key party divisions. Chow’s decision to step back might reflect a strategic approach to maintaining influence and ensuring a well-managed transition, rather than facing direct electoral challenges. Chow’s absence from the electoral race also leaves a void that might or might not trigger a battle for succession. If he is indeed sidelined after the AGM, the party could potentially face a period of instability, unless he steps in to endorse the new state chairman. It is also probable that the new state chief, likely someone handpicked by the national leadership would need to close ranks with Chow’s supporters to stem any potential decay in its organisational structures. Given that Penang is seen as a DAP fortress formed by unwavering support from the electorates and a model for the party's governance aspirations in other states, any perceived instability or internal discord could impact the DAP’s image both within and beyond Penang. What this means for DAP’s future The Democratic Action Party (DAP) has long been influenced by several prominent families, such as the Lim family, Karpal Singh’s family, and the Nga family. These families have been instrumental in shaping the party and country’s direction and policies. Being in the top echelon of the party’s leadership enables these leaders to hold key positions in the government. Lim Guan Eng, a key figure from the Lim family, served as the Chief Minister of Penang for a decade; and now, Lim Hui Ying, a deputy minister in the Finance Ministry. Similarly, Karpal Singh’s legacy continues through his sons, Jagdeep Singh, Gobind Singh Deo (digital minister) and Ramkarpal Singh (former minister in the prime minister’s department), who are active in the party; and the Nga family dominates the political scene in Perak. Not to forget the Phee family too, which holds considerable influence within the Penang DAP too, in terms of internal votes. In addition to the prominent families’ dynamics, there has been a noticeable but increasing sidelining of some vocal DAP leaders such as former members of parliament Charles Santiago and Ronnie Liu, former deputy chief minister of Penang, P Ramasamy, and many more. In any case, Perak’s internal DAP politics has been just as volatile too although it has been brought under control. According to insiders familiar with the party’s internal politics, this raises questions about whether DAP’s leadership is evolving into a form of oligarchy, where power is increasingly concentrated within a few established families. The leadership question at this upcoming AGM is not just about who will hold the state chief position but is symbolic of a broader struggle for the party’s identity and strategic direction in Penang. Chow’s exit from the state line-up might shift internal party dynamics, potentially leading to new alliances or rivalries. However, to what extent will these dynamics play out and affect the party's cohesion and effectiveness? As DAP seeks to consolidate its political stronghold in the state, it must find the balance between appeals to populism which resonates with the broader electorate, and internal pressures to balance continuity with renewal. The decision on who will lead the state committee will likely reflect broader trends within the party, such as its commitment to democratic processes, the empowerment of grassroots voices, and its stance on future alliances. Statements by key figures like Anthony Loke, the party’s secretary-general; Lim Hui Ying, the state secretary; and Chow Kon Yeow will continue to play a critical role in setting the tone for the AGM. Their remarks could offer insights into whether the party will favour continuity with experienced leadership or embrace a new direction led by younger and more dynamic figures. The potential outcomes could range from reinforcing the current leadership to charting a new course that may involve bolder policies or a recalibration of the party's strategic objectives. Risks and implications As pointed out by Ramasamy and a few others, there is a real risk that Chow may be forcefully removed as the chief minister, despite assurance from the party’s secretary-general that it will not happen. Some observers have raised concerns about how the influence of prominent families might impact the party’s democratic processes and internal governance. Will the common members be able to voice out as they used to? Although Chow still enjoys a good following stemming from his 25 years of leadership in the party, there is still an impending change of leadership. There have been suggestions that Chow’s role in grooming a successor has been limited, which may influence the party’s transition process. In fact, being a party loyalist, he has always adhered to party directives rather than challenge any opposition or perceived ploy to unseat him. The bottom line is that Chow has been put in position as the Penang state chief all this time due to his unwavering dedication to toe the party line. He has never deviated from his stance, and when the time comes, he will simply graciously step aside for another leader chosen by the party leadership. That is to say, the Penang DAP chapter lacks autonomy in decisions that affect the people, and it also reinforces the notion of centralised power within the party. Consequently, a change in leadership might still alienate certain factions within the party and among the electorate, potentially diminishing the DAP's cohesion and unity. Then, there is also the risk of a leadership vacuum. While there might not be any protracted infighting, this allows the rise of a factional leader whose leadership might signal the continuance of the family dynasty. What might change, rather, is the fracturing of the party’s support base in Penang, where the electorate’s perception of the party plays an important role in determining whether DAP stays in power after the next election. As it is, DAP, a party that has long been synonymous with Penang's political identity since 2008, has plateaued in terms of garnering non-Muslim votes. The repercussions of Chow's departure are not confined to Penang. The DAP’s internal decisions in Penang will reverberate across its national structure, potentially impacting its standing with coalition partners and its strategy for the next general election. An abrupt leadership change could either signal dynamism and adaptability or be perceived as a potential indicator of instability—depending on how it is managed. While Chow may not be inclined towards political manoeuvering, it is certainly too late for him to attempt anything now, even if he wishes to. The potential outcomes for the party could vary, and it will be crucial to watch how its internal dynamics unfold to ensure it maintains its strategic objectives. That said, this is the reality of politics in Malaysia. Chow’s Legacy and the Way Forward Nonetheless, Chow’s legacy as chief minister will likely continue to be closely scrutinised. Notably, since stepping into the role in 2018, one of Chow’s most reformative moves was implementing a two-term limit for the CM's post. The state constitution, following the addition of sub-clause 7(A)(ii), now reads: “A member of the Legislative Assembly may be appointed as Chief Minister if they have not at any time held the position for two terms.” His tenure has also been marked by steady governance and efforts to balance development with sustainability, but also by criticisms over the perceived lack of assertiveness in pushing back against critics. His career in politics began as a political secretary to Lim Kit Siang, whom many in the DAP regard as the ‘Lao Da,’ or ‘big boss,’ thereby setting the psychological boundaries of what he is capable of as a party loyalist. Notably, he remained quiet when most of his supporters were excluded from the party line-up in the last state election, and more evidently, when these same individuals were left out of key positions in his state administration. If this is indeed the end of his leadership role in Penang, it may provide a moment of reflection for the DAP on the kind of leadership it needs as it navigates increasingly complex political waters both in Penang and nationally. However, as Chow mentioned, he is still the national chairman and the chairman of his division in Batu Kawan, pointing to his continued involvement in politics even after the state party elections. As the DAP’s state AGM approaches, speculations will continue to circulate. Who will be the next state chairman? Will it be either Lim Hui Ying or Steven Sim? Or, as Charles Santiago suggested, Wong Hon Wai or S Sundarajoo? Could it even be a return of Lim Guan Eng? And might a Malay be selected as the party’s chairman for the first time? Much hinges on the choices that will be made behind closed doors, and on whether Chow’s calculated risk will pay off or mark the beginning of another era for DAP in Penang. Interesting days are ahead.