Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 10/Sep 22:41

Is Change On The Horizon? Japan’s Domestic Politics – Analysis

By Kaito Elston (FPRI) -- Since its creation in 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated the Japanese Diet, or parliament, winning a majority in almost every election. However, its grip on the Diet is loosening, as shown by the loss of three previously held seats in the by-elections held on April 28, 2024. These losses are primarily attributed to a fundraising scandal that has further hit Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet approval rating, which has fallen to 16.4 percent, its lowest level since 2012. This figure starkly contrasts with his 46 percent cabinet approval rating in May 2023 following the G-7 summit in Japan. As a result of the scandal, several cabinet members, such as Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, have resigned, indicating a decline in the influence of the LDP’s “biggest and most powerful” faction. Groundwork for Political Domination The LDP’s dominance began with the merger of two conservative parties, the Japan Democratic Party and the Liberal Party, in 1955. Since then, the LDP won a majority in the Diet elections for thirty-eight consecutive years until the 1993 general election. During this period, Japan had a single non-transferable vote (SNTV) electoral system in which multiple candidates could represent a multimember district, commonly comprising three to five representatives. The SNTV system inherently benefits the LDP because the governing party has better access to governmentbenefits, allowing incumbent candidates to promise “goodies” to their constituents. Since opposition and non-governing partiesrely heavilyduring elections on policy changes without the ability to make any promises, they have a more challenging time allocating the necessary votes for candidacy. The inequality within the system was exacerbated throughKoenkai(後援会), personal political support organizations that serve individual politicians in their campaigns. By acting as a loophole in Japan’s Political Funds Control Act, theKoenkaigroupsworkedwith non-political organizations, such as labor unions, to help candidates foster local supporters outside campaign periods. In exchange for their votes, candidates would fulfill the wishes of their local supporters, creating widespread pork-barrel spending and corruption at the local level that often benefited the pro-business LDP. The 1994 electoral reform sought structural change, introducing amixed parallel systemdesignedto createparty-centered campaigns, reduce corruption and election costs, and create a two-party system. However, the reformsfailed to produce extensive change, and the LDP continued to dominate elections for another fifteen years. In 2009, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won more than 300 seats in the 480-seat Japanese Diet. Although many characterized this as amonumental shiftin Japanese politics, the DPJ’s leadership was short-lived. The Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami struck Japan in 2011, and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster proved to be too challenging for the newly elected government. After a poor handling of the crises and just three years as the majority party, the LDP replaced the DPJ at the end of 2012, and it still holds power today. One-Party Rule and its Effects The LDP’s hegemony has had consequences for the country, causing ineffective policymaking on the domestic and foreign levels. The dominant rule that has characterized the country for the past twelve years has allowed issues such as low voter turnout and the aging population to persist while worsening relations with South Korea, which has recently made a comeback. In the most recent Japanese general election in 2022, voter turnout was just55.93percent, down from69.3percent turnout in the 2009 general election and the66percent voter turnout in the most recent US presidential election. The drop in voter turnout is especially worrying because as Japan grapples with its aging population, only34percent of eighteen- to nineteen-year-olds voted in the 2022 Diet election, a six-year low. This is compared to64percent of people in their sixties who voted in the 2019 Diet election. This drop in youth voter turnout is a larger symptom of the next generation becoming uninterested and feeling underrepresented in politics. Additionally, due to thenotoriousconditions associated with Japanese politicians, many young adults are discouraged from pursuing a political career. Japan’s government first becameawareof its aging population problem in 1989, when the fertility rate was 1.57. Since then, the country hasbeenunder LDP premiership for roughly twenty-nine of the last thirty-five years, and the fertility rate has dropped to1.20, a record low. Measures such as the New Angel Plan in 1999 and the Plus One Policy in 2009 have been ineffective in raising the fertility rate because of the absence of much-needed cultural reforms. Despite the generous parental leave policies implemented by companies and the government, the Japanese work environment discouragesmenandwomenfrom using parental leave, causing the fertility rate to drop. Kishida’s “New Dimension” measure,proposedin 2023, heavily emphasizes financial assistance, which is suggested to have a limited impact. Key cultural changes, such as expanding immigration, improving women’s standing in the labor market, and promoting gender equality in housework, are more reliable andmay havea more significant impact. At the foreign level, LDP rule under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe oversaw the worst relations with South Korea since World War II. Before becoming prime minister in 2006, Abedefendedpoliticians andparticipated in visitingthe controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which honors deceased government officials and civilians, including convicted war criminals. After becoming prime minister in 2007, hedeniedthat Japan’s imperial military forced Korean women into sexual slavery during its occupation from 1910 to 1945. This statement marked a significant shift in Japanese foreign policy as it reversed the government’s 1993 Kono Statement, which acknowledged that the imperial militarydid force “comfort women”to work in brothels during its occupation. While in power, Abe again visited the Yasukuni Shrine, which receivedstrong condemnationfrom China and South Korea, with a South Korean spokespersondescribing the shrineas “[glorifying] Japan’s history of colonial rule and war of aggression.” During this time, South Korean-Japanese relations took a plunge, and in 2015, both countries agreed to settle the comfort women dispute. The terms included Japanpaying 1 billion yen, approximately US$6.4 million, for a fund created to help the comfort women and an official apology from Abe. Despite it beinghailedas “final and irreversible,” South Korea would unofficially void the agreement three years later by shutting down the fund dedicated to the comfort women. Despite the souring of South Korean-Japanese ties during Abe’s eight years in power, relations between the two countries have recently improved. Kishidametwith South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol in 2023 for the first bilateral summit between the two countries’ leaders in over a decade, and the two leaders have alsometwith China’s premier, Li Qiang, for the first trilateral summit in four years. The détente can be accredited to both nations experiencing similar threats regarding regional stability and aging populations. With Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirming that unification with Taiwan is “inevitable,” both sides will have an important responsibility to work together and ensure stability and peace vis-à-vis the Taiwan Strait. The Future of Japanese Politics Japanese domestic politics is at a crossroads, facing a weakening economy, the yen hitting athirty-four-year lowagainst the dollar, the 500 million yen fundraising scandal, and low voter turnout all pointing to a grim future. The LDP’s longevity in power is the root of these problems because it has been the only party with governing experience in over a decade, giving voters little choice at the polls and thus continuing the cycle of ineffective policymaking. To solve this, the Japanese government has to give equal opportunities to opposition parties, which can be done by revamping its campaign finance laws, mobilizing more people to vote, and creating a more competitive multi-party system. On June 19, 2024, Japan’s Diet enacted a bill to revise its Political Funds Control Act, addressing the LDP fundraising scandal six months prior. It marked the thirteenth major amendment to the law, indicating its ineffectiveness in preventing financial scandals. Over the lasttwenty years, the pro-business LDP has been riddled with controversies regarding its members’ misuse of political funds, and its proposed legislation has prompted criticism from opposition parties, whichclaim In the past decade, Japanloweredits minimum voting age from twenty to eighteen and enacted reforms to fix the decades-old vote-value disparity. By lowering the minimum voting age, approximately2.4 millionteenagers became eligible voters, the country’s first change regarding voting age in seventy years. Deemed the “largest overhaul” of the Lower House districts in history, the Japanese parliamentredistrictedits electoral map, which will affect twenty-five prefectures when the changes take effect in the next Lower House election in October 2025. The legislation rebalances the Diet by taking away seats in ten sparsely populated prefectures and giving seats to five densely populated prefectures. This will inevitably shift politics away from the rural areas of Japan, which the LDP has traditionally controlled, sparking hope for more competitive opposition parties. In the wake of a warring Russia, a threatening North Korea, and an assertive China, Japan’s significance and role as a vital US ally in the Far East cannot be understated. With approximately56,000active-duty US servicemembers stationed there, the country’s strategic location in the Indo-Pacific allows the US military to maintain an active presence and deter foreign threats in the region. Most importantly, Washington should keep a close eye on the direction and stability of Japanese domestic politics, since its involvement in the potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan could provide “a decisive edge” in the conflict. About the author: Kaito J. Elston was a research intern with the Asia Program from Fall 2023 to 2024. Source: This article was published by FPRI