Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 10/Sep 23:10

Does Iran Want To Revive Nuclear Deal With West? – OpEd

In a striking shift, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has signaled a willingness to engage with the United States over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Last week, during his introductory meeting with the newly formed Iranian cabinet, Khameneistatedthere was “no harm” in negotiating with what he called the “enemy.” This unexpected overture, delivered with caution, outlines a potential path forward for dialogue under the leadership of reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian. However, Khamenei was clear in setting boundaries, exhibiting his deep-seated mistrust of Washington. Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, also warned Pezeshkian’s cabinet, “Do not trust the enemy.” Khamenei’s recent, albeit subtle, gesture has not surprisingly reignited speculation about the potential revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This overture, though carefully understated, hints at the possibility that Iran might be considering a return to the negotiating table. This potential shift draws parallels to the historic 2015 nuclear deal, where Iran agreed to curtail its nuclear program in exchange for significant sanctions relief. Khamenei’s openness to negotiations under Pezeshkian’s reformist government echoes the cautious optimism that surrounded the original deal. Pezeshkian’s ability to manage this delicate situation remains uncertain, particularly as the Middle East grapples with heightened tensions from the Israel-Hamas conflict. Additionally, the looming U.S. presidential election in November adds another layer of complexity. As Khamenei hints at possible negotiations, the question remains: can a new understanding be reached that addresses both U.S. and Iranian concerns? The parallels between Pezeshkian and his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, are striking. Both leaders are perceived as moderate voices within Iran, willing to engage with the West. Rouhani’s tenure saw a historic breakthrough with the 2015 nuclear deal, which fostered dialogue and improved relations with Washington and the EU. Now, with Pezeshkian at the helm, there is growing speculation that Iran might be gearing up for another round of serious diplomatic efforts. Three factors could explain this shift. First, it could be a strategic ploy to buy time. Engaging in talks might allow Tehran to delay international intervention just long enough to advance its nuclear program to a point of no return. If Iran were to declare itself a nuclear-armed state, the West’s options for response would be severely limited. Thus, Iran’s willingness to negotiate may be less about genuine diplomacy and more about securing its position on the global stage. Second, Iran is suffocating under severe economic strain. Crippling inflation, soaring unemployment, and the rapid devaluation of the rial have plunged ordinary Iranians into a relentless struggle for survival. The public’s frustration is palpable, with many blaming the government’s rigid policies for their worsening plight. This growing discontent poses a serious threat to the regime’s stability. In such a precarious situation, Khamenei’s softened stance might be aimed at securing economic relief from the lifting of international sanctions. The prospect of renewed talks with the United States could offer a lifeline, potentially easing the economic turmoil that has gripped the nation. By opening the door to diplomacy, the potential lifting of international sanctions might offer Iran a lifeline, stabilizing the economy and quelling the growing discontent within its borders. For Khamenei, engaging with the West might not be an ideological shift but a pragmatic attempt to prevent domestic unrest and secure the regime’s survival in increasingly turbulent times. The third factor could involve Iran’s escalating tensions with Israel. The recent deterioration in relations between Iran and Israel has raised fears of a broader regional conflict. For Tehran, securing financial resources to support its military and proxy forces has never been more urgent. Compounding this urgency is the ever-present threat of military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. From Tehran’s perspective, both Israel and the United States appear prepared to take action to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state. This looming threat could be pushing Iran to reconsider its hardline stance and explore diplomatic avenues, despite its deep-seated mistrust of the West. In this volatile context, Iran’s leadership might view negotiations as a strategic necessity rather than a mere diplomatic gesture. Engaging with the West could be a way to stave off military action and secure economic relief, thereby stabilizing a regime under increasing internal and external pressures. Even if Ayatollah Khamenei’s offer to revive nuclear negotiations is sincere, the current geopolitical landscape makes such an outcome highly improbable. The situation has dramatically shifted since the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran is now deeply entangled in an escalating conflict with Israel, marked by a relentless cycle of retaliations. For Washington, any attempt to negotiate under these conditions could be perceived as a betrayal of its regional allies, especially Israel. The United States has long positioned itself as a staunch defender of Israeli security, and sitting down with Iran while hostilities continue would send conflicting signals, potentially alienating other key allies and emboldening adversaries. Moreover, the Biden administration is facing intense domestic pressure against engaging with Iran. With bipartisan skepticism over Iran’s intentions and a strong pro-Israel lobby, any overture towards Tehran is fraught with political risk. The political dynamics in both Tehran and Washington have undergone profound changes since the era of the Rouhani administration. Back then, there was a palpable desire on both sides to strike a deal. The Obama administration was committed to engagement, while Rouhani and his more moderate faction pursued an agreement with vigor. Though Khamenei’s recent comments on potential negotiations echo the rhetoric of the Rouhani administration, the context is starkly different. The escalating tensions with Israel, coupled with deep-seated political resistance in both countries, and the advanced state of Iran’s nuclear program, render the prospects for a new deal increasingly remote. In this fraught environment, the chances of replicating the success of 2015 seem slim, as the fundamental conditions that made that agreement possible no longer exist. This article was published at FPIF