Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 02/Sep 22:45

Putin From Kursk To Kursk – OpEd

By Georgi Gotev (EurActiv) -- When Ukraine launched its incursion into Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast on 6 August, many Western analysts said this was some sort of fireworks – it makes a hell of an impression, but it doesn’t last long. One expert we quoted called it “a footnote”. They were wrong. Taking a second look, the Ukraine incursion looks more likely to be a game-changer. In the first days of September, Ukraine still controls reportedly more than one thousand square kilometres of Russian territory, more than 100 settlements, and has captured hundreds of Russian soldiers. Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, analysts have been calling Ukraine’s military a “MacGyver army”. In the 1985 TV series, MacGyver, a secret agent for a national security agency, solves complicated missions with his broad knowledge of applied sciences and his favourite Swiss Army knife. Ukrainians surprised the whole world by combining Soviet-era weaponry with modern technology, developing sea and air drones in innovative ways, and, more broadly, adapting on the ground, faced with a more powerful adversary, at least in terms of personnel and ammunition. The Kursk incursion follows in the footsteps of this MacGyver attitude. Despite Russian claims to the contrary, it seems the Ukrainian leadership decidedto launch the incursion alone. Weeks later, and after some hesitation,NATO called it “legitimate.” Psychologically, the Ukraine attack came at the best time, when Russia felt comforted with its advance in the Donbas and when the Russian leadership was dreaming of a ceasefire on Moscow’s terms, meaning the capitulation of Kyiv. As I write these lines, I’m in Bulgaria, where many Ukrainians feel at home. My interlocutors say that the incursion gives them hope for a more fair peace agreement based on the exchange of occupied territories. Unlike Russia, Ukraine doesn’t want to keep Russian territory anyway. A future peace settlement is likely to agree on demilitarised buffer zones. Russia imagined buffer zones on Ukrainian territory only. Now, it is more realistic to imagine buffer zones on both sides of the internationally recognised 1991 border between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. It may seem strange that Russia hasn’t mobilised more resources to repel Kyiv’s troops from its soil. The Ukrainians, who know the Russians better than anyone else, say that the Kremlin has accepted this situation because it helps its narrative that the entire West is fighting Russia and seeks to destroy it as German-made panzer tanksagain trample the sacred Russian soil. When Putin made the huge mistake of invading Ukraine, he sold to Russians the narrative that this was a “special military operation” and that ordinary Russians wouldn’t experience hardships. But that was a long time ago. More than 66,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine amid the full-scale war before the Kursk incursion, according to a report by the independent Russian media outlet Mediazonain cooperation with the BBC, published on 30 August. The report is compiled based on open sources, such as posts on social media announcing the casualties. In comparison, 9.500 Russian soldiers were killed during the Afghanistan war (1979-1989), which indirectly led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin is navigating between Scylla and Charybdis. The Greek mythical sea monsters to represent, the choosing of the lesser of two evils. If he increases the war effort, that would unleash internal discontent that may destabilise his empire and even cause Russia’s collapse. But Putin also knows that the only way for him to survive politically is if Russia is at war. In this low-intensity war, Putin thought he would have the upper hand. After 6 August, he probably has some doubts. A Russian joke says that Putin, worried by the Kursk incursion, asked for advice from the ghost of Stalin. (The Battle of Kursk was a major World War II Eastern Front battle between the forces of Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union near Kursk during the summer of 1943, resulting in a Soviet victory.) The ghost of Stalin told Putin: “You should do like I did in 1943. Ask the Americans for weapons, and send your best Ukrainian troops to fight.” A nuclear submarine reputedly unsinkable was called ‘K-141-Kursk’ after the glorious 1943 Kursk battle. On 12 August 2000, the Kursk submarine sank in an accident in the Barents Sea. All 118 personnel on board were killed after Russia refused Western rescue help, fearing for its secrets. Putin was already president of Russia at that time and took this terrible decision. My Ukrainian interlocutors said they hoped Putin’s path, which started with Kursk, would end with Kursk.