Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 02/Sep 22:26

Navigating Legacy: Thailand’s New PM – Analysis

By Sreeparna Banerjee Thailand is grappling with a surge in political discontent, as the Constitutional Court, under the influence of the military, clergy, and royalists, is issuing rulings in favour of the state machinery. In a recent turn of events, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest member of the illustrious Shinawatra family,was elected the 31stPrime Minister(PM) of Thailand by the House of Representatives on 16 August, off-seating Srettha Thavisin from this position just two days prior. The court cited Srettha’s appointment of a foreign minister with a criminal conviction asa violation of the ethical standards. Thavisin, who was on the cusp of completing a year in office, became yet another casualty of manipulative rulings that have altered the course of the political trajectory in Thailand several times. Power and jurisdiction The Constitutional Court has garnered a reputation for being an essential state machinery for enforcing and maintaining rule within the Thai population, and one that favours the royalists. While Thai society has witnessed government coups and reshuffles since 1930, the last two decades have seen theremoval of four Prime Ministers and the disbandment of three election-winning politicalforces on negligible grounds. These actions, often targeting those seen as threats to the traditional power structure, underscore the Court's pivotal role in maintaining the status quo. Other state bodies, such as the Election Commission and the National Anti-Corruption Commission, have also wielded their constitutional powers to remove officeholders, sparking debates about potential abuses of power and the urgent need for reform. Created to safeguard the Constitution after decades of coups and instability, the Constitutional Court was meant to be a stabilising force in Thai governance. However, its broad powers, from reviewing the constitutionality of laws to dissolving political parties, have prioritised the whims and fancies of those at the top of the hierarchy. TheCourt's controversial decisionsin 2007 and 2008, including the dissolution of the Thai Rak Thai Party and the People’s Power Party, linked to former Prime Minister and the father of the current PM, Thaksin Shinawatra, have had profound implications for Thailand's political trajectory, with Thaksin Shinawatra fleeing the nation and livingin exile mainly in Dubai and Britainto escape arbitrary charges brought against him. Following this, there was the disbandment of yet another progressive force that advocated for change in the royal structure of the society, namely the Future Forward Party in 2020. The Future Forward Party’s successor—and the choice of the people to lead the statein 2023—the Move Forward Party, was dissolved earlier this month, which further underscores the Court's often conforming role to maintain the royal status quo that demoralises liberal changes. Despite its intended purpose as an impartial mediator, the Court,consisting of one president and eight members—predominantly Justices handpickedby the senators and approved by the King—has been accused of overstepping its bounds, with some critics claiming it has ventured into bringing aboutjudicial coups. This perception had been made more transparentduring the 2006 and 2014 political crises, where the Court's rulings played a vital role in removing sitting prime ministers, paving the way for military takeovers. The Court's interventions have left an indelible mark on Thai politics. The repeated dissolution of political parties and disqualification of elected leaders have weakened public trust in the judiciary in particular and political institutions as a whole. Yet, the Constitutional Court remains a central figure in Thailand's governance, with its decisions continuing to shape the nation’s political course. New leadership As Paetongtarn Shinawatra steps into the role of prime minister, she carries the weight of her family's complex political legacy. At just 37, she is the youngest person to lead Thailand and the second woman to do so, following her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, who was ousted by theConstitutional Court in 2014just before a military coup. With no prior political experience, she must navigate a landscape fraught witheconomic instability, particularly as the opposition, the Move Forward Party, nowrechristened as the People's Party, continues to garner public support as the voters’ choice to lead the nation. Adding to her challenges is the growing public scepticism over the ruling party Pheu Thai's ability to deliver on its promises, especially regarding thecash handout programme worth US$ 14.25 billion. While domestic issues will test her leadership, it will be crucial to observe how she handles Thailand's delicate relationships with its neighbours, particularly Myanmar. While her predecessor PM Srettha agreed to provide humanitarian assistance aligned with ASEAN’s peace plan with Myanmar, whether Paetongtarn will take a more proactive role in engaging with Myanmar’s non-state actors,a path her fatherhas already taken by meeting representatives from Myanmar’s shadow government and personnel from various ethnic armed groups in March and April, will be crucial in determining her political stance. Thaksin’s return to Thailand last year after 15 years of self-exile has been significant, signalling his alignment with military factions that helped reduce his sentence. Indicted in June this year, however, Thaksin faces a court hearing on lèse majesté charges from a 2015 interview with South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo, which has beenadjourned until July next year. This indictment indicates the power-play of the state establishment whereby while allowing Shinawatra’s return, the state is using legal means as a threat to limit his political influence. While senior Shinawatra lacks a formal role, he remains influential within the Pheu Thai Party-led coalition, with many of his allies holding key cabinet positions. As Paetongtarn begins her tenure by forming her cabinet, it will be crucial to observe whether she operates solely under her father's influence or charts her own course. Her tenure will be watched closely, not just for the policies she implements but for what her leadership will signify for the future of democracy in the country. Whether she will be able to break the cycle of political instability or she too will fall victim to the forces that have shaped Thailand's history and her family remains the pertinent question. About the author: Sreeparna Banerjee is a Junior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation  Source: This article was published by the Observer Research Foundation