Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 19/Oct 00:30

Moldova’s Critical Decision Between Europe And Russia – Analysis

By Ecaterina Locoman (FPRI) -- The upcoming October 20th presidential election in Moldova is set to be a pivotal moment for the country. While Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine continues into its third year, Moldova is navigating a path toward EU accession with the goal of full membership by 2030. In addition to selecting Moldova’s next president, voters will participate in a constitutional referendum, determining whether Moldova will adopt a constitutional amendment that enshrines an “irreversible European path” for the nation. Initiated by Moldova’s current president, Maia Sandu, this referendum aims to solidify Moldova’s pro-European trajectory within its Constitution. Reforms Under Maia Sandu The upcoming presidential election will shape not only Moldova’s domestic governance but also reinforce its geopolitical alignment. Domestically, this election serves as a referendum on the anti-corruption, economic, and judicial reforms championed by pro-European President Maia Sandu. One of her most significant achievements has been the dismantling of key elements of Moldova’s oligarchic system – a task that remains ongoing but has laid crucial groundwork for reducing corruption and strengthening state institutions. Continuing with Sandu’s leadership would likely sustain and build on these efforts, aiming to pave the way for long-term development and modernization in Moldova. While Sandu’s prospects for a second term appear relatively secure – likely extending to a second-round runoff if necessary – the future of these reforms will depend heavily on sustained legislative support. Internationally, Moldova’s sovereignty and alignment with European values are at stake. One of Sandu’s greatestachievementshas been raising Moldova’s profile on the international stage, moving the country out of isolation, and gaining the attention of key global powers. For the first time in recent history, Moldova’s interests are firmly on the radar of US and EU leaders who recognize and support its aspirations. Another notable achievement, driven by the war and the pressing geopolitical climate, has been Moldova’s successful reduction of its dependency on Russian energy – a longstanding lever of influence for Moscow – throughdiversificationefforts backed by Romania and the EU. To reinforce its energy independence, Moldova, the EU, and the Energy Community Secretariat signed a roadmap in February 2024, aiming forfull alignment with EU energy regulations by 2028. With its electricity grid synchronized with the European network in 2022, Moldova is now on track to join the EU energy market by 2027-2028, bringing lower costs and more energy options to citizens even before full EU membership. A shift toward pro-Russian leadership could jeopardize these gains, reopening Moldova to Russian influence and potentially undoing its progress toward stability and European integration over the past four years. War in Ukraine and Russian Influence in Transnistria and Gagauzia The war in Ukraine has heightened Moldova’s security concerns and intensified its desire to align with the EU. Both, Moldovan leaders and international allies, includingGermany’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, have emphasized that if Ukraine were to fall to Russia, Moldova could be Moscow’s next target. Moldova’s leaders have frequently acknowledged that Ukraine’s resistance is, in effect, alsosafeguardingMoldova’s sovereignty. The precarious geopolitical situation in Moldova is exacerbated by two regions that pose security and stability challenges: Transnistria and Gagauzia. Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway region in eastern Moldova bordering Ukraine, remains a significant security concern for both Chisinau and Ukrainian leaders. The regime in Tiraspol, the region’s capital, hosts an estimated 2,000 Russian soldiers without Moldova’s consent and controls one of Eastern Europe’slargest ammunition depotsin Cobasna, only seven kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Despite years of negotiations, leaders in Chisinau and Tiraspol have struggled to compromise on the separatist issue, maintaining a tense status quo. Recently, Moldovaintroduced tariffson goods from Transnistria, an unprecedented assertion of economic control that Transnistrian leaders criticized as a “path of escalation,” with threats of retaliatory measures. Tiraspol further deepened the divide by passing alaw banningthe term “Transnistria,” equating it with terms like “fascism” and “Nazism” and promoting the Russian term “Pridnestrovie” instead. This move, condemned by Chisinau as counterproductive, highlights the region’s defiance and resistance to integration. Gagauzia, an autonomous region in southern Moldova, has also emerged as a potential flashpoint for separatist activity, heightening internal security challenges during a crucial election period. The administration in Comrat, Gagauzia’s capital, hasopenly embraced pro-Russian stancesand is heavily influenced byIlan Shor, a fugitive oligarch recently sentenced to 15 years in prison (in absentia) for his role in Moldova’s $1 billion bank scandal back in 2014. Now based in Moscow, allegedly Shor has been involved in efforts todestabilizeMoldova, positioning Gagauzia as a strategic center for these activities. Historically, Russia wielded energy dependency as a tool to keep Moldova within its sphere of influence, frequently manipulating gas prices and controlling energy supplies fromCuciurgan in Transnistria, which underscored Moldova’s vulnerability. Reports indicate that Shor-related actorsare bribing voters and staging protestsin Moldova to undermine the pro-EU referendum and hinder the country’s progress toward EU integration. This interference is part of a broader campaign by Moscow, with significant funds – estimatedup to €100 million– allegedly funneled into influencing the electoral process. Beyond financial support, Russia is reportedly deployingdigitaland hybrid tactics, including spreading disinformation to stoke fears of war if Moldova moves closer to the EU. Russian officials, including Foreign MinisterSergei Lavrov, have warned that Moldova’s alignment with the West could lead to a fate similar to Ukraine’s. Recently, Russia has also employed religious channels to shape public opinion;nearly 500 priests and parishionersfrom the Moldovan Orthodox Church have traveled to Moscow on “sponsored pilgrimages” funded by the Russian Orthodox Patriarchate. Officially intended to foster “brotherly ties” between the Russian and Moldovan Orthodox communities, these visits are viewed by some as opportunities for Moscow to subtly promote anti-EU and pro-Russian narratives among Moldova’s faithful. Simultaneously, Moldova’s nationalsecurity strategynow identifies Russia and its local proxies as the greatest threats to statehood, underscoring Moldova’s commitment to closer ties with Europe through its recentsecurity and defense partnershipwith the EU. Key Candidates and Their Positions As Moldova approaches this high-stakes election, the leading candidates represent sharply different visions for the nation’s trajectory. Incumbent Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) champions a pro-European agenda with a goal of Moldova’s EU membership by 2030. In contrast, her main challenger,Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general with limited public political experience, has garnered support from the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, led by ex-president Igor Dodon, who unexpectedly chose not to run and instead consolidate opposition support for Stoianoglo. Many see Stoianoglo as a Kremlin-backed candidate, and Sandu has openly accused Moscow of meddling in the election. Meanwhile, most of the remaining nine candidates also lean toward pro-Russian or ambiguous “neutrality” positions, which historically suggest subtle alignment with Moscow, casting this election as a referendum on Moldova’s future orientation. The campaign has seen a strong emphasis onnarrativesconcerning national identity, sovereignty, and Moldova’s geopolitical orientation. Pro-Russian candidates often invokefearsabout Moldova’spotential loss of sovereigntywithin the EU, with some candidates warning against perceived potential “militarization” for Moldova if the country becomes more closely linked to the EU and NATO. In contrast, Sandu and other pro-EU candidates underscore Moldova’s future within the EU as a pathway to stability, economic growth, and security against Russian aggression. Public sentiment appears increasingly favorable toward the EU, though some voters remain concerned about Moldova’s sovereignty and economic independence. Russian-sponsored disinformation campaigns and populist rhetoric – particularly around issues ofland ownership, military neutrality, and national identity – continue to shape public opinion, making the elections a critical decision point for its European trajectory. Looking Ahead As Moldova stands at yet another critical juncture, the stakes of its upcoming election and referendum extend beyond domestic policy, shaping the nation’s identity, sovereignty, and its alignment on the European stage. A pro-EU outcome could accelerate Moldova’s integration with Europe, bolstering reforms, economic growth, and security partnerships, while a shift toward pro-Russian leadership risks destabilizing these gains and increasing Moscow’s influence. This election not only reflects Moldova’s internal aspirations but also signals shifting dynamics within Eastern Europe, where regional tensions remain high. Looking ahead, the 2025 parliamentary elections will further underscore Moldova’s direction, as the new president will need strong legislative support to solidify the country’s European path. About the author: Dr. Ecaterina Locoman is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a Senior Lecturer of International Studies at the Lauder Institute, University of Pennsylvania. She also holds an appointment in the Department of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. Source: This article was published by FPRI