Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - Hier 23:49

Russia’s Information War In Moldova – Analysis

By Maya Orenstein (FPRI) -- Historically, Russia has done everything it can to keep countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union in its so-called “sphere of influence” as far from the West’s orbit as possible. However, in recent years, some of these countries, especially Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine, have aligned themselves closer to Europe, a trend Russia considers to be an existential threat to itself. But Moscow’s interests and desire to regain control over Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine are in direct conflict with what the citizens of those countries desire—democracy, economic prosperity, and close ties to the West. In Moldova, about 60 percent of the people nowsupportclose relations with the West. The European Union is already Moldova’s largest economic partner. Moldova is also increasingly less reliant on Russian gas, especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, many Moldovans already hold EU citizenship through close family ties to neighboring Romania—an EU and NATO member country. Moreover, Moldova’s current president is firmly pro-European, and the country is undergoing accession talks with the European Union. Despite clear ties with Europe, many still wish to maintain connections with both the West and Russia. Russia is concerned that it is losing territory it believes to be within its sphere of influence, and it is doing what it can to try and prevent Moldova’s break from the Moscow-approved path. Moldova also deals with many internal challenges in addition to the external pressures it faces—part of the country is indeed pro-Russian. Moldova has a long-standing tradition of Communist rule: Even after it became independent from the Soviet Union, it was led by a communist party and president for decades. These domestic vulnerabilities are a valuable tool for Moscow’s influence operations. Russia is attempting to cling to influence in its “near abroad,” including Moldova, through a myriad of tactics including disinformation campaigns, cyber-attacks, and election interference. This paper will examine the approaches Russia is using to maintain power, influence, and control, other than direct war, through a case study of Moldova. Disinformation Campaign The world is well aware of Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, far fewer understand that Russia is at war with other countries such as Moldova, except Moscow is using a different, but just as dangerous, weapon than traditional guns and bombs:disinformation. Recently, a video was spread throughout Moldovan media of President Maya Sandu imposing aban on collecting rosehipsfor environmental reasons. Rosehips are used as the main ingredient in a popular Moldovan berry-infused tea. This sparked outrage amongst Moldovans who were reminded of their relatives being forced to forage for food, such as rosehips, during the Soviet era. This confirmed to many Moldovans that the president is a Western puppet and is disregarding national customs and traditions for her pro-European agenda. However, the video was a fake. It was entirely fabricated by Russian-backed political adversaries and used to create unrest and distrust in the president. Another example was avideospread on the social media platformTelegramwhich received more than 300,000 views claiming to show that Romania was massing military equipment on the Moldovan border. This video, while real, was from a military parade held months before. It was old footage that was recast as something new, which is a pretty common disinformation technique employed by Russia. Moscow is currently targeting Moldova at a critical juncture in its political history as the country is about to hold anational election and a referendum on joining the European Unionon October 20th, 2024. Russia’s ultimate goal is to destabilize Moldova’s domestic politics, oust pro-European Sandu from office, and bring Moldova back into Russia’s sphere of influence. Russia is attempting to accomplish these by spreading false narratives. Some examples include that there is a higher risk of war if Moldova joins NATO, that Moldova risks war in Transnistria (Moldova’s breakaway region) if the country moves closer to Europe, and simply that Russia is good for Moldova and European integration will only bring negative repercussions for Moldovans. These narratives are being spread through a variety of sources including by pro-Russian politicians and parties, TV stations and websites controlled by pro-Russian political groups, and individuals promoting fake news and speculation on popular social media platforms. The types of information being spread to push these narratives range from mislabeling a pro-EU protest as an anti-EU protest to intricate deepfake videos of Sandu saying or doing something completely fabricated. Some worry that these ongoing efforts to spread disinformation are not only anattempt to ostracize the Westbut are also laying the groundwork among locals for a future Russian invasion of Moldova. This type of disinformation campaign employed by Russia isnot unique to Moldova. Russia is currently targeting American voters, European elections, and even the 2024 Paris Olympics as subjects for disinformation. Disinformation, in the modern age, is one of Russia’s main methods of control and influence abroad. Cyber-Attacks Cyber-attacks aimed to add to uncertainty and distrust in the pro-European Moldovan government are another tactic being used to destabilize Moldova. Reports show thatcyberattacks on Moldova more than tripled in 2022. Many believe that the increase in attacks is due to the country’s ongoing support of Ukraine. Additionally, its current pro-EU direction and government make it a country of particular concern for Russia. The types of cyber-attacks employed by Russia range from “Hack-and-leak” operations that have compromised, exfiltrated, and published confidential documents to paid protests andfalsified bomb threats. In July of 2022, Moldovan government officials received fake emails from Russian and Belarusian IP addresses, warning of bomb threats at more than fifty important facilities across the country. Some of these facilities included the airport, the capital’s City Council, the Parliament, and various ministries. Moldovan security agencies recorded 148 bomb alerts against 885 state institutions in 2022. Conversations between prominent Moldovan politicians were leaked, causing a political scandal. The Moldovan president’s office claimed that these conversations were fake, but it suggests that Russian hackers and intelligence agencies have the access and ability to interfere in domestic politics. To combat this threat, Moldova is in the process of crafting and putting into place a cybersecurity law to reduce the attacks. It is also trying to expand its cybersecurity capabilities but does not have a wealth of resources to do so. Partially due to the war in Ukraine, Moldova has become an increasingly high-risk country for Russian influence and has already been affected by Russia exploiting its energy and economic dependence. Moldova is in an extremely precarious position and even more so with the importance of the upcoming election. The ease with which Russia has been able to execute cyberattacks and meddle in Moldova’s domestic affairs is a cause of great concern. Moldova is dependent on European countries and the US continued support to protect against Russian threats.The United States has recently pledgeda large amount of financial support to help Moldova fight against Russian interference in the lead-up to their elections. Election Interference and Corruption Corruption has long been an effective tool for Moscow to achieve its goals in foreign countries. Putin extensively used corruption in Ukraine to lay the groundwork for the invasion years later. Russia is now using the same tactics toundermine and weaken democraciesthroughout Europe, including in Moldova. Moldova has been dealing with corruption for decades, especially from Russian-sponsored oligarchs. Pro-Kremlin parties, especially those tied to former Member of Parliament Ilan Shor, will field candidates in the upcoming October Moldovan elections, despite being sanctioned by the United States and European Union for attempts to undermine Moldovan democracy. The United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom have issued ajoining statementwarning that Russia is using, “disinformation, criminal and covert activities, and corruption to undermine sovereignty and democratic processes” in the upcoming Moldovan election. Sandu has already faced a Russian-sponsored coup attempt and an ongoing conflict in the Russian-controlled breakaway region of Transnistria. The most recent local elections in Moldovashowed unprecedented levels of election interference. Failure to address these threats puts Moldova’s security at risk, as well as the erosion of its democracy and its EU accession process which is already 94 percent completed. Moldova is trying to fight Russian-backed oligarchs and oligarch-owned media, but it is a near impossible battle because when they take down one site or post, more appear. Thanks to relentless Russian interference, Moldova’s hard-earned democracy is at risk. Without NATO and EU membership the country is physically vulnerable to potential Russian military threats and remains critically vulnerable to Russian hybrid threats. As Moscow continues to fight its war against the collective West on multiple fronts, in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova to name a few, Western leadership and resolve to curb Putin’s imperialistic appetites has never been more important. About the author: Maya Orenstein is a sophomore in the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania studying Political Science and minoring in Psychology and Legal Studies + History. Source: This article was published by FPRI