Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 27/12/2024 23:59

The Evolution Of Baltic Military Divisions – Analysis

By Lukas Milevski (FPRI) -- Ten years ago in 2014, Baltic defense was paltry. The defense budgets of the three Baltic states, but especially Latvia and Lithuania, were suffering from the financial crisis of 2008, and their armies were all negligible. Baltic defense was measured in battalions of about 400-1,000 men, while trying to form brigade-sized forces of 3,000-5,000. Alliance contributions were minimal. In the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Crimea, the US deployed mere companies to the Baltic states; after the 2014 Wales and 2016 Warsaw Summits, NATO finally deployed battalion-sized battlegroups. Compared to the Russian hordes across the border, force sizes were limited. Yet now, with Russian forces in the Baltic region largely drawn away to fight and die in Ukraine, defense forces in the Baltic states have become ever larger and can be measured not in battalions, nor even brigades, but in divisions: Each Baltic state is defended by at least one division. It is worth exploring what this looks like and what it means. One must first understand what a division as a military formation actually is. Critically, there is no single divisional template; divisions are structured differently among countries and even within the same country. Moreover, because countries can vary even in the structure of their basic infantry squads, it is important not to overanalyze when discussing divisions. Rather than trying to account for any division, down to the numbers of individual soldiers and the quality and quantity of their equipment, the vehicles a division operates, and so on, the focus should be mostly on the subunits which report directly to divisional headquarters and the kinds of military assets they essentially represent. For example, the US 1st Infantry Division fields two armored brigade combat teams, each with a cavalry regiment, an infantry regiment, two armored regiments, as well as engineer and support battalions; two regiments of artillery; a combat aviation brigade; and a logistics brigade. The US 1st Cavalry Division similarly fields three armored brigade combat teams; divisional artillery, including a battalion of air defense; a combat aviation brigade; and a logistics brigade. The German 1st Panzer Division fields two armored brigades, two mechanized infantry brigades (one of which is Dutch), as well as artillery, signals, engineer, and support battalions. The key points ultimately are: 1) these are large formations, often much closer to 20,000 than 10,000 soldiers, if not over 20,000; 2) divisional headquarters do not just command frontline brigades but also organically oversee and coordinate artillery, air defense, engineers, signals, and logistics assets as well. The real tests of a division’s capabilities lie in both its size and its breadth of organic assets. Estonia, the smallest of the Baltic states, has been in the process of establishing its own — purely Estonian — division since December 2022. Its order of battle comprises two relatively light infantry brigades, a headquarters and signal battalion, and artillery, logistics, and ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance) battalions. The second infantry brigade is as yet incomplete and would have to be filled with reservists in case of war, while the first brigade is rather more substantial and organically includes even air defense and engineer battalions, as well as an anti-tank company. It is anticipated that in the event of war in the Baltic, one British armored brigade combat team (either 12th or 20th) from the British 3rd Division would also be deployed to Estonia under the operational command of the 1st Estonian Division, besides other NATO enhanced forward presence units in the country. Unlike its northern and southern neighbors, Latvia does not aim to field a national division but already since 2019 has instead contributed to a multinational division, MND North, with Denmark and Estonia, and has remained committed to it. It is therefore the oldest division set up for Baltic defense and as such its headquarters were certified by NATO as operationally ready in July 2023. However, its force structure does not appear to be publicly available. It should include two brigades, the Latvian mechanized infantry brigade and the Canadian-led enhanced forward presence brigade, the latter of which should achieve full brigade-level operationally-ready status by 2026. Yet MND North has additionally become the formal affiliation of the 1st Danish Brigade, which is gearing up to be operationally ready, but it is still unclear how this brigade may eventually fit into divisional operations in Baltic defense, if at all. The Latvian army has artillery, combat support, and combat service support units at battalion level, which presumably would also fall under divisional command, while heavy armor is provided by two squadrons of Leopard 2s, one Polish and one Canadian. A Lithuanian national division has been an ambition of the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense since the 1990s. Serious realization of this vision has received impetus only from Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the intention being to bring it to operationally ready status by 2030, which will require substantial investment to achieve. The division will be created around the three existing Lithuanian infantry brigades, of which the first is a complete mechanized infantry brigade, the second is incomplete and light, and the third, as described in early 2023, is “just a name and a flag.”  The Lithuanian division also needs substantial investment into the various other assets that divisional command entails and requires, including air defense, more artillery, and tanks, among other critical capabilities. The intended size of the division is about 17,500 soldiers. A heavy German armored brigade is expected to be permanently deployed and operational in Lithuania by 2027 and will incorporate the existing enhanced forward presence forces, but as part of Germany’s 10th Armored Division, rather than slotting into the host’s national division like the British armored brigade combat team in Estonia or the Canadian-led brigade group into MND North in Latvia. Given strenuous national efforts and NATO allies expanding their enhanced forward presence, Baltic defense is on a better footing than it ever has been since the three countries regained independence in 1990-91. Yet the divisions they are deploying or planning to deploy remain substantially works in progress, substantially light infantry, and with comparatively few combat support enablers compared to what observation of the on-going warfare in Ukraine suggests they may need to fight the Russians. The heavier elements mostly derive from allied forces, and here Latvia will be somewhat disadvantaged compared to its two neighbors, each of which would have — at the very least, eventually — an entire allied armored brigade in-country while Latvia will not. Moreover, each Baltic state has further light infantry forces in its national guard or defense league units, which apparently are not intended to be folded under divisional command. Ultimately, much work remains to be done, as reflected by all three Baltic states currently expanding their respective defense budgets significantly to well over 3% of GDP. About the author: Lukas Milevski is an Assistant Professor at Leiden University and a Non-Resident Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Source: This article was published by FPRI