Maroc - ENG.UATV.UA - A La Une - 03/Jan 17:03

Russian economy rapidly heading for recession – intelligence

The Russian economy is rapidly moving toward a recession, according to forecasts by Kremlin-linked analytical bodies, the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) reports, according to UATV English. Analysts predict a prolonged economic downturn likely to begin by July 2026. “According to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, operating under the Russian government, given current trends, a downturn will almost certainly begin by July 2026 – a scenario that is practically unavoidable,” the report states. Earlier, in early 2025, the main economic risk trigger was tight central bank policies and record-high interest rates. Today, even gradual rate cuts do not change the overall picture. “The likelihood of a recession is increasing, pointing to deeper structural problems: falling business confidence, slowing economic activity, and weakening domestic demand. The consensus among Russian analysts is clear – under current strict monetary policy, the economy is doomed to contraction,”SZRU experts note. The intelligence service highlighted that signals of deterioration are intensifying. The recession exit indicator fell in October from 0.345 to 0.1, well below the 0.35 threshold, indicating a risk of a prolonged recession lasting more than a year. Key contributing factors include the strengthening ruble, which harms Russia’s trade balance, and expected global economic slowdown. Even a hypothetical end to the war in Ukraine would not provide relief, analysts warn. Reduced military orders, falling household incomes, and declining industrial output could deepen the crisis further. In 2026, additional fiscal pressure is expected to force the Russian government to reallocate resources toward “priority” sectors, perpetuating imbalances and undermining remaining growth. “The conclusion, increasingly difficult to hide even within Russia, is clear: the downturn is systemic. Monetary maneuvers no longer solve anything, and sources for economic recovery are effectively exhausted,”SZRU emphasized. Since the start of the war in 2022, Ukraine estimates the conflict has cost Russian taxpayers around $550 billion, equivalent to 24 annual Russian higher education budgets or 22 health care budgets. The post Russian economy rapidly heading for recession – intelligence appeared first on Freedom.