Maroc - NEWSDAY.CO.TT - A la Une - Aujourd'hui 09:30

PM wrong – cross-border gas critical

THE EDITOR: I am compelled to write following the significant, though not surprising, news that Venezuela has suspended the Energy Cooperation Framework Agreement with TT. This agreement allowed for the development of shared and cross-border gas fields between our two countries. While this news is deeply concerning, what truly left me in disbelief was the Prime Minister’s statement that “Trinidad and Tobago doesn’t need Venezuelan gas and never did.” Nothing could be further from the truth. It is no secret that our energy fortunes, and by extension our long-term economic future, are tied directly to cross-border gas development with Venezuela. The fact that this appears to be lost on the PM should alarm every citizen. Energy experts have often described our gas situation as “walking up a downward-moving escalator.” Every year, as existing reserves decline, new production must come on stream simply to maintain current output levels. Since 2011, when our mature fields began to wane, this has been happening. From a peak gas production of 4.3 billion standard cubic feet (scf) per day before 2010, production fell to 3.3 billion scf by 2015 and now averages roughly 2.6 billion scf per day. Yet, to meet our LNG and petrochemical commitments, we need around four billion scf daily. The maths is simple, troubling and strikes at the core of our economic, fiscal and forex woes. Yes, projects such as Mento, Matapal, and Cypre have added valuable capacity. But they are insufficient to bridge the shortfall. That is precisely where cross-border fields come in. Manatee, a 2.7-trillion-scf field shared with Venezuela, could yield 700 million scf per day by 2027. Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina combined could add another 750 million scf per day by 2028. Together, these projects could restore national output above four billion scf per day, securing our energy future well into the next decade. Now that this framework has been suspended, one must ask: What is Plan B? Where will we find the additional gas between 2026 and 2030, and beyond, to meet our industrial and export needs? The hard truth is no other development, neither in Guyana, Suriname, Tobago, nor Grenada, can replace these resources within that time frame. Without them, production will fall further and shortages will continue to cripple downstream industries, contract our economy, government revenues and our foreign reserves. Already, we see companies such as Nutrien halting operations due to gas and port-cost challenges. If these pressures persist, others will surely follow. Our entire industrial ecosystem, from methanol and ammonia to LNG, depends on a stable gas supply. While diversification is essential, the non-energy sector is nowhere near ready to replace the foreign-exchange earnings, tax revenue, and employment that energy provides. I am not shocked by Venezuela’s decision, given the deterioration in relations since April 28, but I am deeply disappointed by the Prime Minister’s cavalier dismissal of its consequences. This is far from a trivial diplomatic setback and represents an existential threat to our economy, which must be taken seriously. While we aspire to a well-diversified economy and non-energy export-oriented growth, TT’s short, medium and long-term prosperity is inextricably anchored in energy. To pretend otherwise is to ignore both history and reality. I fear the rash actions over the last six months has upended over 20 years of careful diplomacy and hard work, spanning multiple administrations, including Persad-Bissessar’s first. This rogue and erratic posture can only hurt the TT economy and the people it’s meant to develop and uplift. VYASH NANDLAL Carapichaima The post PM wrong – cross-border gas critical appeared first on Trinidad and Tobago Newsday.