Maroc - NEWSDAY.CO.TT - A la Une - 08/Jan 15:18

Maduro extraction, a global economic setback?

THE CENTRAL Bank’s November 2025 monetary policy outlook contained a prescient warning. It said, on page 14, “Disruptions, in the form of tariffs levied by the US on most countries and critical sectors, geopolitical tensions, financial market volatility, and fiscal vulnerabilities are creating a more challenging economic environment.” That forecast turned out to be completely accurate given the Bank's understanding of the potential convulsions caused by the Trump administration and its foreign policy. American oil companies might warm to Mr Trump’s declaration, in the wake of his January 3 ouster of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, that the US is going to “run the country” and, “get the oil flowing.” But very few others may have reason to celebrate. In fact, the US president’s actions, in detonating the rules-based multilateral order that had been the backbone of international trade, is potentially the greatest setback to global prosperity in a decade, unleashing a new era of wild, wild west uncertainty. It’s not just about oil and gas but a far wider fallout. Mr Trump had already hindered the global economy’s delicate economic recovery post-covid19 with his shambolic “Liberation Day” tariffs, which are currently being adjudicated by the US Supreme Court. When questioned about these measures last year, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar initially did not appear too concerned about their impact, saying in August, “Our competitors are also being hit with tariffs. So, if it reduces our competitiveness, theirs is also reduced.” In contrast, the Central Bank’s November report warned, “Even though the immediate impact of tariffs has been limited, given roll backs or lower rates in some instances, central banks and governments should remain vigilant, as there is the potential for higher prices to be passed on.” Some tariff relief was trumpeted that month in relation to agricultural exports, but the deeper issue of the widespread inflationary impact of Mr Trump’s arbitrary charges remains. Now comes regime change in Venezuela, pursuant to Mr Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine,” which stands as an implied threat over all world leaders. Already the fate of this country’s Dragon gas deal, long tenuous, has been yet again thrown in the air, this time because it is unclear who will be in power in Caracas in the coming days, weeks and months. Interim is the administration of Delcy Rodríguez, Mr Maduro’s vice president, who has already flip-flopped on the question of the degree to which she will comply with the will of the White House. Waiting in the wings, too, is the opposition leader and Nobel Peace-Prize winner María Corina Machado. What Mr Trump means by America “running” Venezuela is hazy and is, daily, subject to fleshing out by his officials in the White House. What’s clear is that the US president has his sights on other countries and their resources. And he’s opened the door to a dangerous new world in which others might similarly act. All of this is deleterious to the stability required for economic planning, productivity and growth, which had already been expected to slow globally to just 3.1 per cent in 2026. The post Maduro extraction, a global economic setback? appeared first on Trinidad and Tobago Newsday.