Maroc - NEWSDAY.CO.TT - A la Une - 06/Oct 10:07

US planning regime change in Venezuela?

DR VISHNU BISRAM FURTHER TO commentaries on the Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela, the New York Times (Sept 30) front page reported that the Donald Trump administration in the US is making plans to topple it because of the threat it poses to America – narco trafficking as well as geo-strategic. Other publications in Europe and the Middle East have similar reports as the Times. Maduro has a very cosy relationship with nemeses of the US including Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China; the latter country’s increasing presence in the Caribbean is seen as a geo-strategic problem for America. China’s presence is a challenge to the US foreign policy known as the Monroe Doctrine. Removing Maduro is seen as weakening China's and Russia’s influence in the region. Washington wants to send a clear message on the outside threat posed to American dominance in the region. Action against Maduro sends a clear message to leftists in the region. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the leading voice to remove Maduro from office, in addition to dismantling the narco-criminal infrastructure. Rubio has been the driving force to oust Maduro since the first Trump term some eight years ago when he was a senator from Florida. Many Venezuelans live in Florida, which is also home to the anti-communist Cubans who generally support Republicans. Rubio has been smartly playing domestic politics. He has been a savvy politician. The Times article stated that the US will escalate military pressure to try to force Maduro out. Rubio argues that Maduro is an illegitimate leader who oversees the export of drugs to the US, which he says poses an imminent threat to the US and the region. Trump stated that some 100,000 Americans die from narcotics annually. It is asserted that because “Maduro sits atop Venezuela’s cartel network, they can argue that removing him from power is ultimately a counter-narcotics operation.” In 2020, the Justice Department indicted Maduro and other Venezuelan officials on drug trafficking charges. And Rubio has stated that Maduro is a “fugitive from American justice.” The American met with Venezuelan opposition figures last May. According to the Times, Venezuelans have been speaking with American officials. Maduro is being compared with late Libyan president Muammar Gaddafi, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, and Panama’s Manuel Noriega by members of the Trump administration and members of Congress. (The US under George HW Bush toppled Noriega over drug trafficking; he spent decades in a US prison.) The US military presence in the region is steadily climbing – from 4,500 to 6,500 troops – with large numbers of equipment, aircraft carriers, submarines, etc for any operation. The Venezuelan military is no match for US military technology; a small number of forces can remove Maduro from office. The Times stated that efforts are being made to oust the Venezuelan president without resorting to force. Military action is the last resort. Regime change will benefit Venezuelans and the region. Venezuela has vast oil reserves, larger than Guyana, and in shallow water, although its crude is heavier than Guyana’s. Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips invested heavily in Venezuela. Their assets were nationalised without fair compensation. They would love to see Maduro go, enabling them to recover assets. Large amounts of revenue will flow from rapid production of oil and gas. Exxon quickly developed Guyana’s oil and gas in deep waters. It will perform wonders in less challenging waters, producing numerous barrels of oil. Maduro’s departure will also give Exxon greater security to increase production in Guyana; Exxon will no longer have to worry about Maduro threatening its production. Increased production means prices for oil and gas would fall, benefiting consumers. Oil production will benefit all of Venezuela as opposed currently to a small number of officials. The problem facing Washington and Venezuela’s neighbours is what to do if and when Maduro falls. It will create chaos that TT and Guyana are not prepared to address. The two countries are not prepared to handle tens of thousands of refugees. A decade ago, the government and opposition in Guyana would have spoken out against any military action against Venezuela's leaders, describing it as imperialism. When a handful of us supported Washington against the threat of communism in Guyana and the region, we were called imperialists. But now politicians in Guyana have no issue with an American presence in Venezuela and seeing the back of Maduro. Leftist Guyanese are no longer supporting socialism in Venezuela. And only a few leftist politicians in the region are quietly backing Maduro. Trump does not take too kindly to any regional politicians defying him. Aid and visas are on the line. Washington stated that force is an option to guarantee prosperity in the region. Reports said a swift handover of power at Miraflores Palace is being talked about. Regime change could also lead to stability over the border controversy with Guyana and perhaps stop the flow of Venezuelans into Trinidad. The post US planning regime change in Venezuela? appeared first on Trinidad and Tobago Newsday.