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A War That Matters: Ukraine And Southeast Asia – OpEd

By Bridget Welsh This week marks the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war, a conflict that most in Southeast Asia view with ambivalence, giving it the label “not our war.” Many in the region see it primarily as a conflict involving the United States and Russia, ignoring the devastating impact on Ukraine altogether. Yet, a closer look suggests that the war matters more for Southeast Asia than is being acknowledged, especially given recent developments that exclude Ukraine from a rightful place at the peace negotiation table. Significant conflict for Southeast Asia When Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, Southeast Asians scrambled to address the ramifications for food security and gas prices. Before the war, nearly a third of wheat imports were coming from Ukraine. This has fallen by over half, the result of Russia’s targeted destruction of Ukraine’s agricultural production. As of today, many Southeast Asian countries have diversified their access to gas, wheat and corn, but there remains difficulty in acquiring fertilizer, a key input in this region’s agricultural production. Prices for all these goods are higher than they were before the war. Even now, the conflict continues to put pressure on prices globally tied to lower supplies and continued supply chain disruptions.  Not surprisingly, Southeast Asian elites consider the Russia-Ukraine war their third most important geopolitical concern, at 39% according to ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s State of Southeast Asia Survey 2024, after Gaza and the South China Sea. Elites from three of the region’s smaller countries – Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam – reported the most concern, while Singapore, followed by the Philippines, adopted the strongest advocacy across Southeast Asia to support Ukraine. Push for peace Initially Southeast Asia’s focus on the war centered around economic consequences, but as the war has evolved greater attention has been on the protection of Ukrainian sovereignty, balancing relations with Russia, China and the United States while pushing for inclusive peace. Then-Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo walks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin Palace in Moscow, June 30, 2022. (Courtesy Press, Media and Information Bureau of Indonesia’s Presidential Secretariat) To date, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has cost nearly 1 million lives, including over 40,000 civilians according to the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). The level of wounded, especially amputations, is even greater, impacting families and livelihoods. This war is one of the worst in the 21st century, paralleling the destruction in Gaza, Yemen and Myanmar. Even as Southeast Asia recognizes it is limited in its influence over developments in Europe, this has not stopped regional leaders and countries from advocating for peace. Former and current presidents of Indonesia have offered to mediate the conflict and peace plans, while Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand participated in the Summit on Peace last year in Switzerland. ASEAN has regularly called for an end to the fighting and has been active internationally in working toward this goal. Southeast Asian countries have consistently called for Russia and Ukraine to be part of the peace negotiations, with implicit recognition of Ukrainian sovereignty. While differences do exist on how much various Southeast Asian countries are willing to push for Ukraine, especially those with closer ties to Russia, the region continues to respect international norms around sovereignty. Colonial history in the region offers hard lessons for creating borders through force. Southeast Asia draws from her own experience in Cambodia where it was crucial to have an inclusive peace process and recognizes that peace cannot be sustained through exclusion. Based on peace building in the Philippines and Aceh, along with reconstruction in Timor-Leste, there is an appreciation of the need for broad social inclusion to sustain peace, from bringing in women to addressing the legacy of war crimes. Ukraine’s involvement is crucial to having a sustainable resolution to this conflict. Mariana Betsa, deputy foreign minister of Ukraine (left), addresses the U.N. Security Council as Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski (right) listens at United Nations headquarters in New York, Feb. 24, 2025. (Richard Drew/AP) The U.N. vote this week for a just and lasting peace for Ukraine shows that a majority of Southeast Asian countries support this goal, with only three abstentions – Brunei, Laos and Vietnam. Disturbing developments The narrowness of the Russia-Ukraine discussions in the past two weeks has not been seen as helpful. In fact, recent developments by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump on Ukraine have created disquiet in Southeast Asia. Four issues are garnering attention. First, is the Trump administration’s seeming abandonment of a long-standing ally. This was evident in the votes at the U.N. Security Council this week, where the United States voted against supporting the withdrawal of Russia from Ukraine. Given Trump’s leanings toward Russia, it seemed that this might be coming, but what stands out is his perceived personal antagonism directed toward Ukraine’s leadership and the exclusion of Ukraine from high-level discussions. Second is an apparent lack of respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty. This reinforces views of a worrying erosion of the value of international norms. Third is the demand for Ukraine’s critical mineral wealth. This is particularly sensitive to Southeast Asia, as the region has considerable mineral deposits and is increasingly relying on them for growth. Fourth is the use of Ukraine to send a signal to recalibrate the relationship with Europe. This touches a chord in a region where battles among superpowers played out on Southeast Asian soil have devastated societies through conflict. These recent patterns – betrayal of allies, lack of respect for sovereignty, coercive transactional demands and punishment as an example – have heightened anxieties. Emerging new global order The global order is changing, and these changes pose risks for Southeast Asia. A willingness by Trump to potentially accommodate the interests of regional hegemonic powers – Russia in Ukraine and China in Southeast Asia – is especially worrying. An Indonesian farmer operates a combine in a rice paddy during the harvest season in Lhoknga, Aceh province, Jan. 23, 2025. (Chaideer Mahyuddin/AFP) A major-power “let’s make a deal” approach that leaves out less powerful sovereign countries could have significant destabilizing regional geopolitical implications. In recent decades, the United States has been pivotal for peace and security in Southeast Asia, especially in protecting sea lanes. Under Trump, the United States is recalibrating its relationships globally, including with Southeast Asia. The withdrawal of millions of dollars in foreign assistance to Myanmar has already signaled a shift in support for a more democratic and stable region. For most in Southeast Asia, the Russia-Ukraine war may seem far away. Yet, on the third anniversary, it is closer than it seems. The precedents ignoring international norms could serve to make it harder to protect those norms closer to home. An independent researcher, Bridget Welsh is an honorary research associate at the Asia Research Institute of University of Nottingham Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur and a Senior Associate Fellow of The Habibie Center. The views expressed here are her own and do not reflect the position of the University of Nottingham Malaysia, The Habibie Center or BenarNews.