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Who Flew A Reconnaissance Drone Into Kazakhstan?

(Eurasianet) -- Kazakhstan is finding itself caught up in the Russia-Ukraine war after an unidentified drone crashed in the Bokeyorda District of the West Kazakhstan region, not far from the Russian city of Volgograd. Russian officials are trying to pin the incident on Ukraine, while Ukrainian experts have offered evidence that the drone was a Russian vehicle. Kazakh sensitivities have been heightened by a February 17 drone attack carried out against a vital pumping station in Russia operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), part of a pipeline that connects Kazakhstan to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The CPC pipeline is the main route used for Kazakh oil exports; the destruction caused during the attack will allegedly reduce the pipeline’s export capacity by roughly one-third for several months, according to Russian officials. Ukrainian officials acknowledged the attack on the CPC facility in Krasnodar Krai and say attacks on Russian energy infrastructure will continue. “They not only support Russia’s military by supplying fuel to enemy forces but also play a crucial role in financing the war through oil profits,” the Kyiv Post quoted a Ukrainian Security Services source as saying. The Kremlin reportedly wants members of the CPC consortium to shoulder the repair and upgrade costs for the damaged pumping station, including advanced firefighting equipment. The American oil giant Chevron and the Kazakh government-controlled energy entity KazMunayGaz are among the largest CPC shareholders. The drone discovery in West Kazakhstan occurred the day after the CPC attack, according to Kazakh media reports. The crash site is situated in the vicinity of a Russian military training ground, Kapustin Yar. Soon after Kazakh reports of a downed drone began circulating, Russian Telegram channels and web information portals began spreading unsubstantiated claims that the drone in question was a reconnaissance vehicle on a mission to coordinate a Ukrainian “kamikaze” drone attack on CPC infrastructure in Kazakh territory. Russian media described the drone as a French-made UAV used by the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainian Military Center, a Kyiv-based public organization with strong ties to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, accused Russia of trying to stoke “an international provocation,” adding that the photo of the downed drone published by Kazakh media bears no resemblance to the design of the French-made drone that Russian sources say it is. The Ukrainian Military Center also posted visual evidence that indicates the vehicle is Russian-made, saying “the characteristic shape of the hull, fuselage elements and the drone’s camera unequivocally confirm that it was the Orlan-10 drone that went down in Kazakhstan.” According to Kazakh media reports, the drone is now being analyzed by Kazakh military experts at a facility in the regional capital Uralsk. The Kazakh Foreign Ministry announced it will seek discussions with Ukrainian officials about drone attacks. “This is a very important issue for the economy of Kazakhstan, and we will certainly discuss this situation with our Ukrainian partners through diplomatic channels,” the official Kazinform news agency quoted a ministry spokesman as saying. Kazakh officials at the same time are downplaying the impact of the February 17 attack on the CPC pumping station, saying it “will not pose risks to the transportation of Kazakh oil,” according to the Kazinform report. Export data raises questions about the reliability of Russian damage estimates to the CPC pumping station. The Reuters news agency reported that Kazakhstan pumped a record high volume of oil on February 19, two days after the Ukrainian drone attack on the pumping station. “It was not immediately clear how Kazakhstan had been able to pump record volumes given output increases need to correspond with export pipeline capacity,” the Reuters report states.