Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 06/Aug 19:00

What Russians Feared Most Seems To Be Happening In Kazakhstan – OpEd

On August 1, EU Foreign Policy Chief, Josep Borrell, visited Astana and met with Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Murat Nurtleu. Following the meeting, a statement issued by the Foreign Ministry says: “The diplomats overviewed a wide range of relations between Astana and Brussels within the framework of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between Kazakhstan and the EU. They noted a regular nature and increased dynamics of political dialogue at the highest and high levels, as well as the significant growth of economic cooperation and volumes of European investments”. Josep Borrell also met with the Kazakh President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, according to a statement by the press office of the Head of Kazakhstan, which says they discussed the prospects for developing cooperation and exchanged views on issues on the international agenda, including regional interaction between Central Asian countries. These meetings drew a fair amount of attention from the local and Russian media outlets. It is understandable: Astana isn't a place, frequently visited by Western powers leaders and the EC's high-ranking officials. So every such visit is a noteworthy event. But here is what's most remarkable. Some of those media outlets put special focus not so much on the very fact of these meetings, as on the following remark made by Josep Borrell during a press conference after a meeting with Kazakh Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu: “Connectivity is another keyword. Connectivity is an area of mutual interest. Upcoming investments will enhance land connectivity by supporting the development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor”. Here are some headlines that speak for themselves: “Simplified obtaining of Schengen visas [for Kazakh citizens] and a corridor bypassing Russia” (Orda.kz) and “The European Union is selecting an approach to Central Asian countries: Borrell is seeking a loophole in an Oriental carpet of the anti-Russian sanctions” (Nezavissimaya Gazata). Eurasia Expert concludes its report on the visit of the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy to Astana with recommendations to read Natalya Eremina's article entitled “The EU wants to turn Central Asia into an arena of confrontation with Russia”. It says that “the EU has repeatedly expressed great interest in developing” the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, which “is not only a regional economic zone, but also an alternative and sustainable route between Asia and Europe that avoids crossing Russian territory”. According to its author,  Natalya Eremina, “by tearing it [Central Asia] away from Russia, Brussels is trying to win the competition in the post-Soviet space not only against Moscow, but also against Beijing”. She believes it is necessary to note here that the EU's Central Asian strategy emphasizes just ousting Russia from the region. To that end, Natalya Eremina points to Brussels’ political blindness which is reflected “in ignoring Russia's role in ensuring [Central Asia's] regional security”. The latter might be true in a twofold sense concerning Kazakhstan. Yes, Russia can come to the aid of Astana the way it was in the case of the January 2022 events. Still, on the other side, Kazakhstan has been regularly subjected to verbal attacks and territorial claims by Russian MPs and politicians, who believe the Central Asian country acts as a ‘second Ukraine’, in which ‘Nazism’ is a consequence of the machinations of the ‘Anglo-Saxons’. Plus, “the largest sources of oil in Kazakhstan are of such interest to Russia that fakes and attempts to finally destabilize the [already] tense relations between the authorities of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Western investors are being used”. These all seem to be far from harmless, especially considering words by Dossym Satpayev, a well-known Kazakh political expert, that after the January 2022 events, “the whole world discovered that Kazakhstan with its security system was a paper tiger that could easily be crushed, and it's scary to imagine what will happen to the country in case of aggression by a more serious opponent from the outside”. Yet what Muscovite politicians and public figures have said is one thing, but forecasts and, first and foremost, signals from Russian geo-strategic analysts are another. The latter proceeds from the assumption that strategically Kazakhstan is more important to Russia than Ukraine. Shortly before the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Ukraina.ru, in an article entitled‘Ukraine is not Kazakhstan, that’s why Russia will fight for it [the Republic of Kazakhstan] until the very last’, quoted Andrey Grozin, the head of the Central Asia and Kazakhstan department in the Commonwealth of Independent States Institute, as saying the following: “The problem is that [Kassym-Jomart] Tokayev is regarded as a person who wants to be friends with everyone and is afraid to ruin relations with everyone. In Asian societies, a person who seeks consensus is seen by many as a weak figure who needs to be pushed aside, straightened out, or removed. Ukraine, with all its nonsense, is a kind of nuisance, but you can live with it. And Kazakhstan, which is run by Russia’s opponents or is not run by anyone at all (the latter is the most likely one of the bad scenarios), is something, we mustn’t even think about. Should that happen, we will have to deploy not peacekeepers to the [neighboring Central Asian] country, but a real military contingent, in order to take control of the logistics hubs simply so that we retain access to the south [the other four States of Central Asia]. Or else there will be, if you will permit the vulgarism, a complete and total ass. We will somehow get through with the insane Ukrainian authorities, if not this year, then next. Yet this is just a small piece of geography. [While] Kazakhstan is the ninth largest country in the world in terms of area. There is the 7,500-kilometre (4,750 miles) of unguarded border between them [the Republic of Kazakhstan] and us [the Russian Federation]… We can’t wall ourselves off from Kazakhstan, even if we wanted to. Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova are countries, which are important to Russia. I mean, in terms of ideology, economy and military potential. As for Kazakhstan, it is different. It is kind of like Ukraine presented in a concentrated form”. The worst-case scenario, sketched by Andrey Grozin two and a half years ago, now seems to be realized. The Middle Corridor, or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which avoids crossing Russian territory, already works in the interests of ‘Russia's opponents’. A number of these kinds of projects (TRACECA, Nabucco, KCTS, and so on) have been discussed on numerous occasions in the past. But they remain on paper. As to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TCITR),  it is a whole other story. On July 3, 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev jointly officiated the opening ceremony of the TCITR. This is a case where the interests of China and Russia's Western opponents, which run counter to the Russian ones, converge. As a result, Moscow ends up as a net loser. And now to the question of whom the last word remains for within the corridors of power in Astana. Here is what Yerlan Atamkulov, ex-president of Kazakhstan Temir Zholy [Kazakhstan Railways] national company, said in a recent interview with Abay Live channel: “Watching the president on television for the last three or four months, I have noticed the following: he gets into a bad mood, as soon as it comes to the economy. I've noticed that. Why is this happening? He sets the tasks - nobody does them. He sets the tasks - nobody does them”. In such a situation, it comes to mind Andrey Grozin's's words saying “And Kazakhstan, which is run by Russia’s opponents or is not run by anyone at all (the latter is the most likely one of the bad scenarios), is something, we mustn’t even think about”. few words about how the Kazakhstani economy is currently doing. Orda.kz, in a piece entitled “Shock and a sense of unreality”: Kazakhstan's budget situation horrified a famous economist”, quoted Almas Chukin as saying: “All that talk about our critically unbalanced income and expenditure has become a frightening reality this year. With a revenue collection plan [for the first half of 2024] of 6.9 trillion [tenge], we collected 5.6 trillion, or 81% (a shortfall of almost 20%). Moreover, revenue is not only less than the plan, it is even half a trillion less than it was in the same period last year. At the same time, we reached 95% of the plan in expenditure and spent 10.7 trillion. Just think about it - income of 5.6 trillion and expenditure of 10.7 trillion. A deficit of almost 50%!”. What the Russian political expert feared most seems to be just happening in Kazakhstan.