Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 29/Aug 10:42

The Next US President Should De-Colonize Eurasia – OpEd

With Russian influence in decline and its army weakened by defeats in Ukraine, it is an opportune time for the next US president to de-colonize Eurasia and ending the Kremlin’s long held dream of rebuilding an empire. In 1991 and today, Russia’s dream of empire is being destroyed in Ukraine. A strategically important region in Eurasia is the South Caucasus, an east-west transport and energy hub which has long been contested by Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The US was AWOL, and its views of the South Caucasus were marred by American-Armenian lobbying led by disgraced former US Senator Bob Menendez. Armenian-Americans support the status quo with Armenia continuing to be part of Russia’s Eurasian empire. The next US president should support the de-colonization of Eurasia by supporting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s pursuit of integration with Europe. Eurasia’s de-colonization is in the interests of the US. Ukraine is destroying the power of the Russian army which will take a decade to recover. Russian influence is in terminal decline in throughout Eurasia because of its disastrous war in Ukraine and isolation from the global economy and trade. Armenia and Azerbaijan are moving closer to signing a peace treaty that would end the bloodiest conflict in the former USSR that has lasted over three decades. A peace treaty would open the door to a historic normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey. Moreover, these two developments would integrate Armenia into trade, economic, and energy inter-dependence and cooperation with other countries in the South Caucasus. Turkish influence would supplant Russian and Iranian influence in the South Caucasus. President Barack Obama was largely disinterested in international affairs and in asserting US interests against China, Russia, and Iran. Obama’s disinterest in international relations was most visibly seen in Syria, where he ignored his own red lines, and Ukraine, where the US did not fulfil its security commitments to Ukraine under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. The US went AWOL in Eurasia. President Donald Trump did not bring peace to the Middle East, the US withdrew from the July 2015 Iranian Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (nuclear deal), and his decision to pull out of Afghanistan ended in chaotic withdrawal under President Joe Biden in summer 2021. In 2019, Trump imposed sanctions on Nord Stream II, the Russian-German gas pipeline. Two years later, Biden lifted the sanctions. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany cancelled Nord Stream II and hitherto unknown saboteurs blew it up. US policy towards the Eurasia is at a crossroads. The outcome of this year’s American presidential elections will have a major impact upon US foreign and security policy towards Eurasia more broadly, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia. US leaders often come across as naïve and lacking in substantive knowledge of world affairs. Neither of the two presidential candidates, Republican Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, has much experience of world affairs. Vice-Presidential candidate Tim Walz is new to the world outside the US. Trump and Vice-Presidential candidate James D. Vance foreign policy pronouncements are an incoherent jumble of foreign policy goals, populist rhetoric, mixed with threats of US isolation and peppered by the former president’s narcissistic belief in his own superhuman powers. While demanding the US stand up to dictators, Trump fawns over Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and North Korean ‘rocket man’ Kim Jong Un. Trump and Vance should recognize the US has allies in Eurasia with whom the United States could further US national interests. Vance has oddly said he doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine. And yet if Ukraine would be militarily defeated, there would be a likelihood of war breaking out between Russia and the West. Ukraine is the first line of defence against NATO and the EU. If Trump and Vance aim to be assertive towards Iran, as the former president was in 2016-2020, then US national interests would be best served by supporting Azerbaijan. Israel, the United States main ally in the Middle East, and Azerbaijan are long-term strategic and military allies. Iran is a hostile actor in the Greater Middle East and in the Caucasus where Tehran promotes nationalistic claims and Islamic extremism against Azerbaijan. At the Democratic National Convention where she was accepted as the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Harris said, ‘Trump threatened to abandon NATO. He encouraged Putin to invade our allies…as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.’ The next US president should pursue seven inter-connected policies. Firstly, the US should support the de-colonization of Russian influence in Eurasia. In doing, the US would be buttressing the independence of the non-Russian countries in Eurasia such as Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and others. Secondly, recognise the threat posed to US national interests of an Anti-Western Axis of Upheaval uniting Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Russia and Israel seek to eradicate Ukraine and Israel respectably from the map. It is entirely possible that Russia will provide Iran with nuclear weapons technology; North Korea is most likely already doing so. Thirdly, the US should provide strong support to the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the de-colonization of the South Caucasaus. This would end the Kremlin’s ability to play off both countries in a traditional Russian divide and rule. Fourthly, the US should normalise its relations with Turkey. The United States has two important military bases in Turkey, the Incirlik Air Base in Adana and the Izmir Air Station which is home to the 425th Air Base Squadron under NATO's Allied Land Command Headquarters. Improved US-Turkish relations would facilitate the normalisation of relations between Turkey and Armenia. Fifthly, the US should support the diversification of Azerbaijan and Central Asian energy pipelines away from Russia. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are strategically important, alongside US LNG and Norwegian gas, in facilitating Europe’s energy independence from Russia. Sixthly, the US should expand military cooperation with Azerbaijan and Armenia and encourage their military and security integration with NATO. Finally, the US should threaten to impose sanctions against Armenia, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan who are the leading countries in Eurasia helping Russia to evade sanctions. These three countries are the main conduits in Eurasia for Western dual use goods that are re-exported to Russia for use in its military production and war against Ukraine. The election of a new president is an opportunity for the US to pursue the de-colonization of Eurasia through seven important policies. These seven policies are in the national interests of the United States and therefore they should be pursued irrespective of whether Trump or Harris win the election. The fundamental national interests of the US are served by Russia’s military defeat in Ukraine and the de-colonization of Eurasia. Defeat and de-colonization would permit Russia to finally become a post-Soviet country and the dream of empire dumped into the dustbin of history.