Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 17/Aug 10:49

Myanmar’s Quagmire: China’s Strategic Interests And Indonesia’s Potential As A Peacebroker – Analysis

The protracted conflict in Myanmar, known for its ongoing repression of opposition groups and ethnic minorities by the military junta, has resulted in significant regional instability. The recent meeting between former Myanmar military leader Than Shwe and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi underscores China's increasing influence in the region. While China presents itself as a mediator, there are concerns about its true intentions and whether its actions are genuinely aimed at restoring peace or driven by self-interest.Given these circumstances, it is crucial to critically examine Indonesia's role and potential under President-Elect Prabowo to assume a bridging role in the diplomatic landscape of Southeast Asia. The political turmoil in Myanmar has persisted since the military coup in February 2021, which deposed the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The junta's rule has been characterised by severe crackdowns on dissent, widespread human rights abuses, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of individuals. Ethnic minority groups, particularly the Rohingya population, have faced considerable persecution, while the country's economy has suffered due to mismanagement by the military. The ongoing violence and instability in Myanmar have not only exacerbated the domestic crisis but also had far-reaching implications for regional security and international relations. In response to this situation, Myanmar has increasingly relied on China for support. The recent meeting between Than Shwe and Wang Yi highlights Myanmar's dependence on Chinese assistance in sustaining the junta's hold on power. Than Shwe's request for help from China in restoring stability provides insight into the deepening relationship between the two nations. However, China's involvement in Myanmar is primarily driven by strategic interests rather than altruistic motives. China's involvement in Myanmar is multifaceted. On the one hand, Beijing has offered diplomatic and military assistance to the junta, shielding it from international condemnation and sanctions. This support has been crucial in enabling the regime to survive despite widespread international isolation. On the other hand, China has also engaged with ethnic insurgent groups in Myanmar, helping to broker ceasefires and serving as a mediator in conflicts. Through this dual approach, China seeks to maintain its influence in Myanmar while safeguarding its strategic interests, which include access to Myanmar's natural resources and the preservation of its geopolitical position. China's role as a mediator in Myanmar has been met with scepticism regarding its true intentions. Rather than genuinely addressing the conflict, China's actions seem to prioritize the protection of its interests. This is evident through its involvement in brokering ceasefires with ethnic insurgent groups, which can be seen as a strategy to ensure stability in border areas crucial for Chinese infrastructure projects. Additionally, China's support for the junta serves to maintain a government that aligns closely with Beijing's interests, particularly in countering Western influence in the region.  The response of global and regional powers to the Myanmar situation has varied. The United States has taken a firm stance against the junta, implementing sanctions on military leaders and entities involved in the coup. The Biden administration consistently denounces the military's actions and calls for the reinstatement of democratic governance. Similarly, the European Union has imposed sanctions on the junta and assists in humanitarian efforts in Myanmar. The EU also advocates for international pressure on the military regime to cease its violence against civilians and engage in dialogue with opposition forces. ASEAN's response to the crisis is multifaceted. The regional organization remains divided in its approach, with some member states advocating for engagement with the junta while others push for its isolation. Although the Five-Point Consensus of ASEAN, which calls for an end to violence and the initiation of dialogue, has yet to be fully implemented, the bloc's inability to effectively address the crisis underscores the limitations of its consensus-based decision-making process. Nevertheless, ASEAN continues to play a vital role in regional diplomacy, and its efforts to mediate the conflict remain ongoing. Indonesia, a prominent member of ASEAN, consistently calls for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Myanmar. The country has consistently called for dialogue and the restoration of democratic governance in Myanmar. Indonesia's diplomatic efforts are guided by its historical commitment to non-alignment and its influential role as a leader in Southeast Asia. The election of President-Elect Prabowo has the potential to further enhance Indonesia's involvement in regional diplomacy. Prabowo's administration could leverage Indonesia's influence within ASEAN to promote a more coordinated and effective response to the crisis in Myanmar. The role of China in resolving the conflict in Myanmar is a topic of great significance that warrants academic analysis. The assessment of whether China acts as a facilitator for peace or is primarily motivated by self-interest is crucial. While China's involvement is integral to any potential resolution, it is imperative to evaluate its actions in light of broader regional and international efforts aimed at restoring peace and stability. The efficacy of China as a mediator may be compromised if its primary objective is to safeguard and expand its influence and strategic interests. In contrast, Indonesia holds considerable potential as a bridge builder, which assumes particular significance with the advent of President Prabowo. Unlike China, Indonesia lacks comparable strategic interests in Myanmar, thus positioning itself as a more neutral and credible mediator. Indonesia's non-aligned stance, combined with its adeptness in regional diplomacy, makes it well-suited to play a constructive role in mediating the conflict. Prabowo's administration should prioritize Myanmar in its foreign policy agenda and work in close collaboration with ASEAN and other international partners to advocate for a peaceful resolution.In conclusion, the situation in Myanmar remains highly unstable, with no immediate prospects for conflict resolution. While China's involvement is indispensable, concerns arise due to its self-interest-driven motives, which cast doubt on its effectiveness as a mediator. The international community, including the United States, European Union, and ASEAN, must persist in exerting pressure on the junta to engage in dialogue and restore democratic governance. Simultaneously, Indonesia possesses the potential to assume a pivotal role in resolving the crisis. Under the leadership of President-Elect Prabowo, Indonesia should utilize its diplomatic influence to advocate for a peaceful resolution, establishing itself as a prominent mediator in Southeast Asia. By doing so, Indonesia can make a significant contribution to regional stability and facilitate the path towards a more peaceful and prosperous Myanmar. opinions expressed in this article are the author's own. References Albert, Eleanor. "Myanmar's Troubled History: Coups, Military Rule, and the Struggle for Democracy." Council on Foreign Relations, 28 February 2022.  ASEAN Secretariat. "ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar: Progress and Challenges." ASEAN.org, 10 August 2024.  Li, Nan. "China’s Strategic Interests in Myanmar: Diplomacy, Security, and Economic Ties." Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 31, no. 134, 2022, pp. 345-362. Maizland, Lindsay. "The Myanmar Coup and its Regional Implications." Council on Foreign Relations, 5 March 2023.  Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security. "Myanmar’s Political Crisis: An Overview of the Current Situation." MIPS Reports, July 2024.  O’Toole, Megan. "Myanmar’s Future under Military Rule." Al Jazeera, 23 July 2023.  Zaw, Htet Htet. "Ethnic Conflicts and Ceasefires in Myanmar: China's Influence." The Diplomat, 30 June 2023.