Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 16/Aug 13:32

Change Of Guard In Japan: Some Speculations – Analysis

Introduction There shall be a change of guard in Japan next month. With the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) presidential election scheduled in late September 2024, in a surprising move, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on 14 August that he would not be in the race, a decision that will lead him to step down from the office of prime minister. In a press conference Kishida announced that he would not be seeking re-election as the leader of the LDP in next month’s presidential election. This has thrown up the race for the next prime minister. In the press conference, Kishida underlined that the LDP ought to be transparent and have an open election with “a free and vigorous debate” to choose its leader and to achieve that he needed to step aside. The announcement came during the Obon summer holiday, when the LDP should have been gearing up for the September presidential election. But as a rank-and-file member of the party, he committed to support the new leader to be elected in the presidential election. This would be the first presidential election in which faction politics shall have no role, at least officially. The LDP is the majority party in the Japanese governing body — the National Diet. It leads the government together with its minority partner, the Komeito. Traditionally, the majority party leader becomes the prime minister but with Kishida’s announcement to step down and not join the presidential race, the country shall have a new leader in September. What are the possible reasons that led Kishida to make this announcement? This column shall try to answer those questions and explore the possible names, their strengths and weaknesses, with the right credentials to succeed Kishida and lead Japan. Reasons behind Kishida’s announcement The reasons for Kishida’s surprise announcement are basically two. These are his handling of a political fundraising scandal involving some of the party’s faction lawmakers, and the plummeting approval rating in recent months as a result of the first reason. Let me give a detailed analysis. Fundraising scandal First, the political fundraising scandal needed scrutiny. Kishida was aware that opposition was building up against his administration during the past months over corruption issues. Since late 2023, the LDP had been facing backlash due to a political funds scandal. The party was accused of failing to report party money and placing it in slush funds undeclared to tax authorities. The scandal soon snowballed with various consequences. So, what measures did Kishida take to address this issue and if those measures helped to resuscitate the party’s political fortune? Though it is difficult to measure the results of the measures Kishida took to restore the damage caused by such scandal, his intervention was commendable. It soon proved to be a half-measure, and it came too late without much positive impact. So, did Kishida succeed in redeeming the party’s image? After the scandal snowballed, Kishida entrusted the party’s Ethics (Disciplinary) Committee to probe the issue. The committee held a meeting on 4 April and doled out punishments to dozens of LDP politicians who had not reported this income from party activities. Kishida also enacted new legislation to prevent the problem from recurring. This effectively disbanded LDP’s faction system, thereby dispersing the traditional consensus-gathering process. The larger objective was to resuscitate the image of the party. The Ethics Committee decided to punish 39 Diet members of the Shinzo Abe and Toshihiro Nikai factions. It held them responsible for their involvement in the non-recorded income from factional party’s scandal. Kishidawas not among them. As it transpired, this was inadequate to unravel the truth. These punishments were not handed down until two and a half months after the investigations were concluded. Among the prominent members against whom punishments were announced were Tatsu Shinoya, Hiroshige Seko, Hirofumi Shimomura, Yasutoshi Nishimura and Takeshi Takagi. From the Abe faction, two Diet members received the second most serious punishment and were asked to leave the party. They were Ryo Shionoya, former minister of education, culture, sports, science and technology, and Hiroshige Seko, former LDP secretary-general in the House of Councillors and Abe faction head. Other Diet members were suspended from party membership, deemed eligible to hold party offices, or received reprimands. The Japanese public was surprised why Kishida and former LDP secretary-general Toshihiro Nikai escaped punishment altogether. Though Kishida apologised for the distrust in politics the affairs caused, and vowed to pursue political reform, he made no mention of any personal punishment to accept responsibility. Nikai was exonerated probably because he had already announced not to run in the general election in September. This being said, the distinction between personal announcement and the party’s official punishment were blurred. Kishida probably sensed the mood of the people and decided to step down in order not to face humiliation and criticism by the people. It is difficult to say if the decisions by Nikai and Kishida not to remain in the fray were merely self-serving and not in the larger interests of Japan’s political culture. No lesson seems to have been learnt from Abe’s decision to stop the practice of kickbacks within his own faction. There is no answer how this practice resurfaced and much remains unexplained. No wonder, the public is unlikely to be satisfied with Kishida’s decision to ask the Ethic Committee to look into the issue and subsequent punishment it meted out to 39 lawmakers involved in the scandal. The malaise in the country’s political system is so deep rooted that mere making a new law is unlikely to eradicate the problem and bring transparency and honesty among the lawmakers. No prime minister in the past or even now has been able to get to the bottom of the affair and correct this malady. This does not mean to suggest that no more efforts need to be made to uncover the truth so that a repetition is prevented. However, since lawmakers enter the Diet under oath, those indulging in such unethical practices ought to be held accountable and thus answerable to the general public when proved to be guilty of indulging in such practices. Probably, Kishida was found wanting in revising the Political Funds Control Act. An amendment to the Act would have placed responsibility squarely on the shoulders of the individual law maker. Such a measure could have been seen as part of a system of collective responsibility. The peoples have also a right to know how the money is used and therefore there has to be public disclosure of the money collected and disbursed by political parties to Diet members. Subsequent public opinion polls showed the majority of voters were unsatisfied with the revisions of the law. Opinion gathered steam within the LDP for a change in leadership. Plummeting approval ratings for Kishida The second major factor that led Kishida to step back from the presidential race was his realisation that the approval ratings of his Cabinet, launched in October 2021, had plummeted dramatically to 20 per cent in the wake of the scandal. Though initially Kishida seemed inclined to seek re-election, he soon realised to the situation that it would not be in the interest of the party if he remains in the race. In a joint opinion poll conducted by Sankei Shimbun and FNN (Fuji News Network) on 20-21 July 2024, the approval rating of Kishida Cabinet was 25.1 per cent, down 6.1 per cent from the previous survey on 15-16 June 2024, dropping below 30 per cent for the first time in two months, thereby entering “dangerous waters”. By taking the necessary steps, Kishida tried making effort to revive the image of the party in view of the upcoming leadership race next month. That was not to be as exited from the race soon. The disapproval rating for Kishida government was coming down continuously for the four consecutive months as people opting for change outnumbered those who preferred continuity in the leadership. In the opinion survey, while 59.5 per cent wanted Kishida to remain at the helm till the end of his term as LDP President in September, 26.7 per cent wanted him to be replaced immediately. Only 10.9 per cent wanted Kishida to continue in office “even after September”. This implied that Kishida needed to be re-elected in the presidential election. In view of this fluidity in the situation, Kishida felt it was best to withdraw from the race. In yet another opinion poll by Mainichi Shimbun conducted on 20-21 July, 70 per cent said that Kishida should be replaced in the September presidential election. Only 11 per cent said Kishida “should continue” as LDP president and 18 per cent were undecided. A similar survey conducted in May showed the percentage points remained almost unchanged. Kishida rightly judged the public mood and announced his decision not to rerun. It was primarily because of LDP’s suspected links to the Unification Church and inapt handling of the slush fund scandal, besides domestic economic issues that contributed to the plummeting of his popularity rating. For the record, Kishida had been in office for over 1,000 days, making him the eighth longest-serving Japanese post-war leader. He first became prime minister in October 2021. Likely successor to Kishida This raises the third point in this essay. Who is likely to be Kishida’s successor? Various names have been floated as possible candidates. In the same survey, former Secretary-General Ishiba Shigeru scored with 24.7 per cent as the most suitable to become the next president of the LDP, followed by former Environment Minister Koizumi Shinjiro (son of the rebel Junichiro Koizumi) with 12.1 per cent. Ishiba and Koizumi were followed by Minister of State for Economic Security Takaichi Sanae with 7.5 per cent, Minister of Digital Affairs Kono Taro with 7.0 per cent and former Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide with 5.4 per cent. Prime Minister Kishida came in seventh with 4.1 per cent. Other names doing the round are LDP Secretary General Toshimitu Motegi, Katsunobu Kato and former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi but their chances are dim. Of all the names being floated, Ishiba’s name appears to be in the forefront. As the former Defence Minister and former LDP secretary general and thus No. 2 figure within the ruling LDP, Ishiba is popular with the public. Then there is Digital Minister Taro Kono, a reform-minded maverick and social media-savvy lawmaker, who has informed LDP Vice President Taro Aso, also a former prime minister that he wants to be in the race. This would be Ishiba’s fifth attempt to win the presidency of the LDP and become Japan’s prime minister. On 27 June, Ishiba had shared his intentions with his close circle. He is now expected to seek support from former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and former LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai. Both are influential figures within the party and maintained a distance from Kishida. Despite his limited support within the LDP ranks, Ishiba has consistently rated high in opinion polls about prospective prime ministers. Whosoever wins the race and becomes the prime minister, the important task would be to revive the LDP’s waning public support. Though Ishiba could not muster enough votes from LDP lawmakers in past presidential elections, he enjoys broader backing from ordinary party members nationwide. He thus holds an advantage over other candidates this time as factional politics are eliminated by law. Ishiba does not belong to any LDP faction. Ishiba represents a district in Tattori Prefecture and currently serving his 12th term as a Lower House member and thus a senior member of the party. Though Ishiba is not much popular within the LDP, he is popular among the public. His open criticism of the faction system resonates with the public. But his outspokenness in the past four bids to head the party did not work well for him. What matters in politics is that support of his colleagues in the Diet matters much more than people outside when it comes to leadership matter. His often critical remarks about LDP prime ministers have created an image of Ishiba as a backstabber. Itching with a 5th try to become Japan’s prime minister, it remains to be seen if LDP lawmakers will let him finally achieve that goal. Kishida’s decision not to seek another term effectively means Kishida tendering his resignation. This sets up Japan’s most exciting race for a leader in years. Writing an Opinion piece for Bloomberg, Gearoid Reidy remarks that in the end Kishida “could not escape the pull of gravity”. Here, Gearoid Reidy draws comparison of Kishida with the US President Joe Biden. Though age was not in favour of Biden, Kishida, 67, was active and so, age was not the issue with him to leave the race. But as said earlier, his popularity rating had plummeted so low following the LDP’s funding scandal and ties to the Unification Church that it was untenable for Kishida to remain in the race. Both struggled to reconnect with the public for different reasons. However, while Biden swiftly endorsed Kamala Harris as his replacement, Kishida did not announce any heir in Japan. As the situation stands, Japan shall have a new prime minister in September 2024. Though the next general election is scheduled for October 2025, the new prime minister might choose to call a snap national vote, as Kishida did. There could be uncertainties, however. Since factions in the PDP are disbanded in the aftermath of the funding scandal, it is hard to decipher how lawmakers shall vote in choosing the new leader next month. Thus far, the LDP has been winning irrespective of who contests the election and forming the government since the opposition continues to remain weak and fragmented. Viewed positively, such a situation provides political stability and continuation of policies. Kishida’s mixed legacy So, what legacy Kishida leaves behind him? It seems to be a mixed baggage. In the foreign policy realm, in the field of defence and foreign policy, Kishida definitely scored big, as mentioned by Japan’s biggest cheerleader US Ambassador Rahm Emanuel who was the first to praise Kishida. He hailed the “new era of relations”. He was referring to doubling the defence spending, relax defence export rules, and restore ties with South Korea, all without sparking mass protests. Kishida championed “New Capitalism” but was undone by yen. He pushed through Japan’s biggest wage increases in decades but that was not enough to make up for the impact the battered yen had. The weak yen was his undoing. The currency’s long slide to an almost four-decade low against the dollar drove prices of food and fuel and badly hurt consumer confidence in an economy that was emerging from years of deflation. Despite all the sincere efforts and his achievements, Kishida was seen to be wanting in connecting with the public. Thus, Japan waits for a new leader in late September when the LDP presidential elections take place.