Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 16/Aug 13:37

Fall Of A Dictator In Bangladesh – OpEd

Sheikh Hasina’s fall in Bangladesh shows history’s cruel irony. The ousting of the leader marks the end of a period characterized by the kind of oppression her father fought against in Bangladesh’s birth. While writing this article I had borrowed some segments by noted Indian analyst Commodore Uday Bhaskar and also partly from world famous British magazine The Economist. These references do not in any case detract from the essence of the article. In unexpected and dramatic development plunged Bangladesh into turmoil on Monday as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasinaabruptly resignedafter 15 years in power and fled to India in a military aircraft. This ignominious exit followed weeks of student-led protests over the job quota system and brutal reprisalsby security forces. Images of jubilant protesters ransacking the prime minister’s residence testify to the intensity of the anti-Hasina sentiment. This was reminiscent of what happened in Colombo in July 2022, when then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka amid similar protests and the ransacking ofthe presidential palace. Bangladesh is a relatively new nation. It was known as East Pakistan before being born as an independent nation in 1971 after a war of liberation from Pakistan in which India played a major role. The unseating of Hasina has been described as the second liberation of Bangladesh. This is deeply ironic as Hasina’s father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was the founding father of the fledgling nation and had fought against the oppressive, genocidal rule of the Pakistan army.The same chargesare now being levelled against his daughter; the blood-soaked rhythms of history add to the trauma of Bangladesh and its collective memory. Bangladesh army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman, who was appointed in June, has taken control of the troubled nation. He has assured the country that an interim government will soon be formed. The country’s parliamenthas been dissolvedto pave the way for fresh elections which were among the key demands of the student protesters. The army, which has long played an influential role in Bangladesh’s politics, will continue to do so in an effort to control the current turbulence. It will oversee the formation of an interim government and prepare the country for free and fair elections, the kind thatHasina has neglectedduring the past decade. Nobel Peace Prize winner and microfinance pioneerMuhammad Yunushas reportedly been appointed as the chief adviser to the interim government, a demand made by the students who are wary of yet another cycle of army rule. Even so, the army will be required to stabilize a domestic political environment riddled with deep fissures and a divided public. Bangladesh, which ispredominantly Muslim, is split between an old guard that is supportive of Pakistan and its ideology rooted in Islam and the veterans of the 1971 liberation war who inherited Mujib’s mantle and share his vision of a moderate, secular state. The Awami League and the Bangladesh National Party are the main political parties, but the now-bannedJamaat-e-Islami partyhas emerged as a significant voice and could be included in the interim government. The current protests appear to have gained traction in an organic manner with no clear political affiliation or direction aside fromdemanding better governanceand free and fair elections. Assuaging public discontent and dealing with bitterly opposed political factions will be difficult for the interim government. The economy appears to be fragile and major international backers have distanced themselves from Hasina’s administration over its policies of domestic repression. Under Hasina, Bangladesh engaged with all the major powers but had an apparenttilt towards India. South Asian states have sought to maximize their engagement with both New Delhi and Beijing and their related benefits, and in recent years China has stepped up its own presencein the Indian periphery, much to Delhi’s dismay. The manner in which Hasina fled the country is a major setback for Indian foreign policy amid Delhi’s significant support for her rule, largely out of security and strategic considerations. As a result, India couldfind itself alienatedfrom both Bangladesh and its people. The immediate priority for Delhi will be confirming the personal safety and political status of Hasina. The latest reports suggest the UK is unwilling to extend full protection from potential investigations, while the United States has refused to comment on reports that Washington revoked Hasina’s visa. ‘Our country has been liberated’: Bangladeshis celebrate as prime minister resigns and flees. If Hasina stays in India for an extended period, it will not be the first time she has received such shelter. When her father was assassinated in 1975, then-Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi took Hasina under her protection and helped her return to Bangladesh to strengthen the country’s nascent democracy. It is ironic that Hasina is now guilty of thwarting the same democratic impulse in a ruthless manner. This is a heavy cross to bear as the Sheikh Mujibur legacy has been sullied, symbolized poignantly by the imposing statue of Bangladesh’s founding father being torn from its pedestal in Dhaka. The rhythms of history can be unforgiving of authoritarian hubris. As mentioned earlier exit of Sheikh Hasina was dramatic to say the least as described by famous British magazine The Economist. Asexits go it was dramatic. On August 5th Sheikh Hasina, the prime minister of Bangladesh, fled the country she has ruled with an increasingly harsh grip since 2009. She was driven out by a vast display of people power on the streets of Dhaka, the capital, and would be replaced by a caretaker government, backed by the army and led by Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel peace laureate. Like him, many Bangladeshis are calling it a “second liberation”, half a century after independence. Yet to meet the promise of the moment,Bangladeshmust do more than oust an ageing autocrat: it must also clean up a rotten political system. The good news is that the economy is resilient and civil society is robust. The problems are venal political dynasties and the enfeebled institutions that have failed to stand up to them. Yunus has a short time to set the country on a democratic path. His success or failure will shape the lives of 173m Bangladeshis, and influence the rivalry between China, India, Russia and the West. Bangladesh has been in turmoil for some time. A rigged election in January confirmed the country had descended into thuggish one-party rule. In July mass student protests erupted against the reimposition of reservations of 30% of government jobs for descendants of veterans of the war of liberation in the 1970s, which protesters saw as patronage for supporters of Sheikh Hasina’s party, the Awami League (AL). The unrest became a broader uprising and the government responded with a shoot-to-kill curfew. Over 450 people have died. After the army withdrew its support for Sheikh Hasina rather than spill more blood, mobs ransacked her palace. They vandalized statues of her father, who led Bangladesh to independence, and around whom Sheikh Hasina had built a personality cult. Yunus, 84, a revered microfinance pioneer, finds himself in charge. It is not yet clear who will be in his administration, how it will work or for how long. For much of the time since Bangladesh broke off from Pakistan in 1971, it has endured either military rule or a messy form of democracy, in which power has alternated between two dynasties, thealand its rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Things looked up in 2008, when Sheikh Hasina won a free election. Economic growth, already robust, approached 7% a year for the next decade, fueled by garment manufacturing. Rising incomes and feistyNGOs helped cut poverty, boost literacy and get more women into jobs. Bangladesh was a star among emerging markets. Diplomatically, Sheikh Hasina had close ties to India but also forged military and commercial links with China and sought cordial relations with the West. However, at home she grew ever more oppressive. Many opposition politicians were locked up before the last election described by many as farcical and boycotted by opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Two-fifths of young people lack regular employment. TheALexercised control over the allocation of everything from teachers’ jobs to graduate openings in business. Since 2020 inflation and capital flight have undermined stability. The country’s foreign reserves have fallen by more than half since 2021, to $19bn. In 2023 it took out a $4.7bn loan from theIMFto stabilize its balance of payments. From the street corner to the boardroom, disillusion has spread. Professor Yunus faces an immensely difficult task. His priority should be to restore order and prevent waves of retributive violence, which have blighted Bangladeshi politics in the past. This means ensuring that the caretaker government, while run by technocrats, also includes representatives of the protesting students and of all political parties, including theAL. Even harder will be to avoid some pressing dangers. The country could fall prey to Islamist extremism, as Pakistan has. If the financial squeeze worsens, Bangladesh could become dependent on China for cheap loans and arms. That would destabilize relations with neighboring India and could erode democracy even further. And a fresh election might restore an unreformedBNPto power. Having suffered persecution under Sheikh Hasina, its leaders are eager to take charge again. Yet their party also has a record of thuggery and cronyism. Professor Yunus needs to work fast. The unelected caretaker government must not remain in office for too long lest it lose legitimacy or, worse, its military backers are tempted to cling to power indefinitely. Professor Yunus should therefore aim to hold proper elections on a reasonable timescale, but first he will have to clean up institutions that Sheikh Hasina captured, such as the electoral authority and the courts. When it comes to the economy, the government should raise more external funding to lower the risk of a balance-of-payments panic, and press for a crucial new trade deal with the European Union. The existing generous terms under which Bangladesh exports its garments will expire in 2029. In the coming years, the country will lose its broader status as one of the least developed countries, which grants it various trade and financing privileges. Most important, Professor Yunus must urge the political system to open itself to new ideas and leaders, reflecting the aspirations of the country’s young, growing and increasingly urban population. This requires it to ensure that new parties can form and campaign without harassment. It also means asking theALandBNPto install new leaders who are not part of the founding dynasties. Sclerosis at the top has poisoned politics. A tall order in Bengal. Despite its daunting problems, which also include a severe vulnerability to climate change, Bangladesh has advantages. Unlike most troubled countries, it has an economy capable of rapid growth. CONCLUSION THE West has a moral duty to help Professor Yunus. In Professor Yunus it now has a leader with moral authority. Western powers should help him, especially if his military backers try to meddle. America, Europe and Japan are Bangladesh’s biggest markets and big sources of finance, so they have influence. India, which has often backed strongman rule, needs to do its bit: if it wants a stable neighborhood it should urge democratic renewal and offer financial support. Bangladesh matters; it must not be allowed to fail.■