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Iran’s Plans For Region Were Interrupted By Haniyeh Killing – Analysis

Following the sudden death of Iran’s president, Ibrahim Raisi, thereformistpolitician Masoud Pezeshkian won the snap election to replace the hard-liner, a possible successor to supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Pezeshkian campaigned on a program of change, but not changing the system. He supports negotiating a nuclear deal with the U.S. and regularly criticized Iran’s system, but is a supporter of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and declared, “I still wear the uniform of the IRGC.” After the election, Pezeshkian announced his program in“My Message to the New World”and declared his intent to strengthen relations with Iran’s neighbors, specifically mentioning Iraq, Türkiye, and the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. He emphasized the need for a “strong region,” said he hoped for “constructive dialogue” with Europe, criticized the U.S. for exiting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and urged Washington to “come to terms with reality.” So far, so good, but thenIsrael killedHamas leader Ismail Haniyeh who was the group’s negotiator with Israel, leading Qatar’sprime ministerto declare, "How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?" The killing of Haniyeh in Tehran came just hours after he attended Pezeshkian’sswearing-in, where the new president pledged to keep working to remove Western sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program. Israel’s target wasn’t just Haniyeh, who could have been killed at his home in Qatar, but the threat of a moderating Iranian government that could rally support for Palestinians due to widespread dissatisfaction with Israel’s war against civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, and potential adverse rulings against Israel by the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice. What it did was increase the sway of Iran’s hardliners, allowing the Netanyahu government and its American supporters to blame the Iranians for increased tension in the region. And in a surprise appointment,Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip, was named head of the Hamas Political Bureau, succeeding the assassinated Haniyeh as chief of the organization. So, in short order, Israel managed to encumber an Iranian leader open to dialogue with the West and replace a Hamas official open to dialogue with Israel with its worst enemy. The Sinwar appointment will increase the tension in Jerusalem at a time when Iran and Israel are both seeking to reestablish deterrence but stop short of a regional war. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei,ordered retaliationfor the Haniyeh killing, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin promptly announced the U.S. wouldsupport Israelif it was attacked, so there may not be any immediate thaw in U.S.-Iran relations or peace in the region, and Iranian initiatives like the2003 “Grand Bargain,”which included theArab Peace Initiative, will now look like a capitulation. However, Qatar’s former Prime Ministerhas proposedthat, in lieu of retaliation against Israel, Iran forego retaliation if Israel agrees to an “immediate and permanent ceasefire,” an exchange of prisoners, and the return of all Palestinians to their homes in Gaza. For this to happen, though, the Biden administration will have to change its stance and force a cease-fire, against the wishes of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies in the U.S. President Pezeshkian will have to deal with the immediate crisis and, if it ends without too much damage, focus on cooperative efforts to build the “strong region,” including the BRICS countries (Iran joined the organizationin January 2024), the Middle East and South and Central Asia. That will be time well spent, instead of spinning Iran’s wheels in nuclear negotiations with the U.S. and Europe, particularly asUN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2231, which enshrined the JCPOA expires in October 2025. And, with 2231, goes “snap back” sanctions against the Islamic Republic, though the U.S. will always take unilateral action regardless of any UNSC resolution. A “strong region” policy is a continuation and expansion of Iran’s“Look East”policy, the pivot away from the West and to Eurasia which resulted in long-term cooperation agreements withRussiaandChina. In Central Asia.Uzbekistan,Kazakhstan,Turkmenistan, andTajikistanhave all increased trade links with Iran, in Tajikistan’s case to include a defense pact. And the leaders have all had face-to-face meetings. After China’s (and Iraq’s) successful mediation between Tehran and Riyadh lessened tensions, Iran’s presidentvisited Saudi Arabia, embassiesreopened, and bilateraltrade resumed, and are working towards resuming regularly scheduledair service. Though the U.S.controls the proceedsof Iraq’s dollar-denominated oil trade and is unhappy when Baghdadbuys electricityfrom Iran, the Iraq-Iran trade has grown,surging$150 million monthly since March 2024. And Baghdad has signaled it wants allU.S. troopsout by September 2025. Iran and Pakistan have sought to enhanceeconomic ties, with Iran expressing interest in joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. However, tangible bilateral cooperation remainsbelow potential. The Balochistan region, which straddles the Iran-Pakistan border, has been apoint of contention, with both countries conducting counter-insurgency operations and accusing each other of harboring terrorists. The Iran-Pakistan natural gas pipeline was conceived in 1950 and in 2010, despiteU.S. opposition, the countries concluded a 25-year Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) and the construction of the 2,775 km pipeline. Pakistan has failed to complete its leg of the pipeline and will be liable for an $18 billion penalty if it fails to complete work. U.S. antagonism to Pakistan’s need for more energy may ultimately increase China’s influence if Beijing can craft a solution palatable to Tehran and Islamabad. Iran and Afghanistan have been discussing the expansion oftrade and economic ties, with recent developments including an agreement on developing Chabahar Port, a $35 million Afghan investment in Chabahar, a railway connecting Khaf, Iran with Herat in western Afghanistan, and a meeting between Iran’s special envoy to Afghanistan and Afghanistan’s Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs to discuss bilateral relations. In April 2022, the Talibanbanned poppy cultivationand methamphetamine production, a move that benefits Iran, which has thehighest rateof opium abusers in the world, according to the World Health Organization. And, according to theUnited Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “More than 3,700 national law enforcement officials have been killed and over 12,000 have been maimed in counter-narcotics operations over the last three decades.” Iran and Afghanistan have fought over Iran’s access toHelmand Riverwaters, despite the Helmand River Treaty, signed by Iran and Afghanistan in 1973. A fair agreement on water sharing would reduce tensions, build trust, and help the economies on both sides of the border. Many Israeli leaders are afraid of moderates as Jerusalem’s warnings of imminent disaster for the Jewish state are key to continued support from Washington. Israeli hard-liners successfully fought moderation by assassinating Swedish diplomatCount Folke Bernadotteand Palestinian leaderAbu Jihad, facilitating thefunding of Hamasto weaken the Palestinian Authority, and even killing their own Prime Minister,Yitzkah Rabin, whose death may have been set in motion by rhetoric such as then-Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim thatRabin’s governmentwas "removed from Jewish tradition [...] and Jewish values.” As usual, it’s all about the money. The key native sources of technology in the Middle East are Iran and Israel. Israel needs to keep Iran isolated, sanctioned, and poor to ensure foreign direct investment isn’t tempted by the promise of Iran’s bigger market, about 90 million versus Israel’s 9 million. Sure, Startup Nation is a thing, but it is old hat by now while Iran has the attractions of a new, untapped market and its proven skills in nuclear science, and defense and aerospace engineering, despite decades of economic warfare, led by the U.S. and its confederates in the West. The Palestinians have rightly been accused of always holding out for a better deal, but Israel’s leaders are holding out for no deal, so building a “strong region” and avoiding a ruinous war will rely on good judgment in Tehran and Washington. This article was published at Real Clear World