Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 23/Aug 10:37

Will Ukraine Sustain The Incursions? – OpEd

On the 6th of August, thousands of Ukrainian troops incurred into the Russian territory of Kursk and held dozens of Russian soldiers as prisoners. This type of incursion is unprecedented and surprised Moscow. It is the most significant Ukrainian cross-border attack since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. After days of silence, the Ukrainian president finally admitted that its troops were fighting inside the Russian territory and Ukraine aims to create a buffer zone in the Russian territory. Incursions are not a new development; last year, militia fighters aligned with Ukraine crossed into Russia's Belgorod Oblast. However, these attacks involved only a small number of volunteers and lasted just a few hours. Ukraine denied responsibility, stating that the incursions were carried out by voluntary militias, not by its armed forces. This time the incursions consisted of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers of armed forces who were given cover by artillery fire and newly acquired F-16 fighters.  The Ukrainian military incurred 1000 square kilometers inside Kursk, and a “counter-terror” operation is underway, according to Russia's Ministry of Defense. Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Ukraine’s incursion seemed to occur to gain better terms at the negotiating table. While the Ukrainian attack may have been successful this raises the question of how the Ukrainian military incurred into Russia without much resistance. However, Russia does have the ability to absorb and repel the attack. Reportedly, Russia has already stopped all negotiations with Ukraine and increased the intensity of attacks inside Ukraine. This incursion may have happened to dilute the attack from south in Kherson Oblast where there is heavy Russian military presence. What can Ukraine gain from incursion? This incursion can help in three regards. First, according to President Zelenskyy, it can create a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine to stop Russian attacks on Ukraine in the bordering regions like Sumy. This seems to be unrealistic as Russia, after the Ukrainian incursion, conducted dozens of strikes on the Sumy region. Secondly, to show its Western allies that their assistance would not go to waste and their weapons are paying off. Ukraine used the U.S.-made Artillery Rocket System HIMARS to destroy a key Russian bridge and U.K.-donated tanks in the initial incursion. Lastly, if successful, it would give Ukraine a stronger position in negotiations with Russia, which as of now Russia appears to have lost interest in. Another point to note is that there is an upcoming U.S. election in the first week of November, Ukraine recognizes that in case of a republican victory, the aid coming from the U.S. will drop significantly. This Incursion may be a pre-emptive action if forced into negotiations. Will Russia be affected? The question of whether will Ukraine continue to hold the areas of the Kursk region depends upon the defensive positions Ukraine will hold. From the footage, it seems like Russians are flying their drones and fighters into the Kursk region with ease. The Russian military initially had logistical issues however, it seems like Russia has solved the logistical issue. Russia started hitting back a day after the incursion and now Russia seems to be hitting the Ukrainian targets in Kursk. With the absence of air defenses and once the mobilization of the Russian military is complete, it would be extremely difficult for Ukraine to hold these regions. For Ukraine, this could potentially drain its military resources as Ukraine has lost military equipment in Russian retaliation including U.S.-provided HIMARS. Ukraine has lost and continues to lose territory inside its own country. Recent reports suggest that Russia continues to advance in the Donbas region in Ukraine and is near the Donbas highway which could potentially threaten Ukraine’s supply lines across the entire front. This highway this the best route for the military forces on the Eastern front, if lost, it will become extremely problematic for Ukraine to be in the Donbas region, especially with the arrival of winter. Experts suggest if nothing changes Ukraine will lose the highway. This operation could potentially cause Ukraine to incur losses that Ukraine may not be able to sustain. Ukraine will not be able to deploy any Air defense system in the captured territory due to the constant mobility needed in the incurred area, so Russia will eventually gain lost territory in the longer run. Finally… Ukraine's goal of creating a buffer zone may not be a realistic expectation. Despite all the Western-provided defensive equipment, it has not been enough to halt the Russian advance in Ukraine. This raises significant doubts about the feasibility of establishing a buffer zone within Russian territory. Russia may use this incursion as an opportunity to deplete the limited number of Ukraine’s forces within Russia and increase its advance in the southern Donbas region. Although Ukraine is now open to negotiations, Russia is unlikely to engage under less favorable terms. Given the current dynamics on the battlefield, Russia may view any negotiation from a position of strength and is therefore unwilling to compromise or accept conditions that would weaken its strategic objectives.