Risk of Death in Flights Is Declining

Flying can be a stressful experience for many people. But a new study published Thursday (Aug. 8) found that commercial air travel continues to get safer, with the risk of death decreasing by half every decade. The global air passenger fatality rate fell to 1 per 13.7 million passengers in 2018-2022, a significant improvement from 1 in 7.9 million passengers in 2008-2017, according to a paper by researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the United States. The figures represent a significant difference compared to the early commercial aviation era, when the death rate per passenger reached 1 in 350,000 in the period 1968-1977. “Flight safety continues to improve,” said MIT professor Arnold Barnett, who co-authored the study published in the “Journal of Air Transport Management.” He added that the odds of dying from flying “have been doubling every decade.” Barnett compared this trend to “Moore’s Law,” the famous prediction of Intel founder Gordon Moore, which stated that the computing power of chips would double about every 18 months. In 1978-1987, the risk of death was 1 per 750,000 passengers on board an airplane; in 1988-1997 it was 1 per 1.3 million; and in 1998-2007, it was 1 …

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