Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 17/Sep 23:43

Ukraine War Turns Into Russian Roulette – OpEd

The UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with the US President Joe Biden in the White House on Friday with the question of the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine to hit deep inside Russia on their agenda of conversation. Butthere were no announcements, nor was there any joint press conference. Starmer later told the media that the talks were “productive” but concentrated on “strategy” rather than a “particular step or tactic”. He did not signal any decision on allowing Kiev to fire long-range missiles into Russia. Starmer said no final decision had been taken on theStorm Shadow missilesand hinted that further developments may follow at the gathering of the UN General Assembly later this month. “We’ll obviously pick up again in UNGA in just a few days time with a wider group of individuals,” he said. One reason for such extreme secrecy is that the US and UK are intensely conscious of the Russian President Vladimir Putin’sexplicit warning on Thursdaythat any use of western long-range missiles to strike Russia “will mean that NATO countries, theUnited States, andEuropean countries are parties tothewar inUkraine. This will mean their direct involvement intheconflict, andit will clearly change thevery essence, thevery nature oftheconflict dramatically.” Putin added in measured words: “This will mean that NATO countries– theUnited States andEuropean countries–- are atwar with Russia. Andif this is thecase, then, bearing inmind thechange intheessence oftheconflict, we will make appropriate decisions inresponse tothethreats that will be posed tous.” Admittedly, Putin has given similar warnings before also, but did not follow through even when western weaponry was used by Ukraine with impunity to invade Russia recently. So much so that Biden was plainly dismissive about the latest Kremlin warning, saying, “I don’t think much about Vladimir Putin.” On its part, Moscow estimates that although no official decision on the matter has been announced, it has already been made and communicated to Kiev, and that Moscow would have to respond with actions of its own. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, Moscow’s point person on the diplomatic track, wasquoted as sayingon Saturday, “The decision has been made, the carte blanche and all indulgences have been given (to Kiev), so we [Russia] are ready for everything. And we will react in a way that will not be pretty.” Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of the country’s security council,went a step further sayingthat the West is testing Russia’s patience but it is not limitless. He said Ukraine’s invasion already gave Russia formal grounds to use its nuclear arsenal. Medvedev warned that Moscow could either resort to nuclear weapons in the end, or use some of its non-nuclear but still deadly novel weapons for a large-scale attack. “And that would be it. A giant, grey, melted spot instead of ‘the mother of Russian cities’,” he wrote on the Telegram messaging app, referring to Kiev. Putin, in his remark on Thursday once again rejected the Anglo-American sophistry that it is Ukraine that will be using any western long-range missiles and not NATO. He pointed out that theUkrainian army “is not capable ofusing cutting-edge high-precision long-range systems supplied bytheWest. They cannot do that. These weapons are impossible toemploy without intelligence data from satellites which Ukraine does not have. This can only be done using theEuropean Union’s satellites, orUS satellites– ingeneral, NATO satellites… “most important, thekey point even– is that only NATO military personnel can assign flight missions tothese missile systems. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this. Therefore, it is not aquestion ofallowing theUkrainian regime tostrike Russia with these weapons ornot. It is about deciding whether NATO countries become directly involved inthemilitary conflict ornot.” Interestingly, neither Washington nor London has so far refuted Putin’s above explanation and, curiously, it has been expunged altogether from British press reports — fearing, perhaps, that public opinion might militate against such direct involvement by the UK in a war against Russia in acombat role! Moscow anticipates that the US-UK ploy may be to test the waters by first (openly) using Britain’s Storm Shadow long-range air-launched cruise missile, which has already been supplied to Ukraine. On Friday, Russia expelled six British diplomats assigned to the Moscow embassy in a clear warning that Uk-Russia ties will be affected.Russia has already warned the UK of severe consequences if the Storm Shadow were to be used to hit Russian territory. What makes the developing situation extremely dangerous is that the cat-and-mouse game so far about NATO’s covert involvement in the Ukraine war is giving way to a game of Russian roulette that follows the laws ofProbability Theory. That is to say, although Russia cannot be defeated or evicted from the territories in eastern and southern Ukraine that it annexed, Washington and London regard that the final outcome of this random event cannot yet be determined before it occurs; it may even be any one of several possible outcomes, and the probability cannot be ruled out that the actual outcome might even be determined by chance. Apparently, Biden believes that Russia’s current battlefield dominance is a random phenomenon and possible outcomes range from an annihilation of Russian military power to a large-scale disruption of life in Russia and a possible collapse of Russia — at a minimum, the weakening of the Russian hand in any future negotiations.Simply put, the war is now about Russia rather than Ukraine and long-range missiles can be a game changer. Thus, Biden, with no political constraints working on him anymore, is escalating the war to create new facts on the ground before his presidency ends in January, which may create conditions for permanentNATO military presence on Ukrainian territoryand present Russia with a fait accompli. Such a strategy built on the quicksands of probability is akin to a game of Russian roulette — an act of bravado. Indeed, Biden’s options to support Ukraine are shrinking with each escalation, As the Wall Street Journal puts it, “With only four months left in the Biden administration and little hope of Congress approving additional funding for Ukraine no matter who wins the presidency, the White House is debating how best to help Kyiv given its limited toolbox.” Equally, Europe’s interest in the war is also waning. European politics is becoming unpredictable with theascendancy of the far-rightin Germany, the crisis of leadership in French politics, the relative decline of EU’s economy vis-a-vis global rivals due to limited innovation, high energy prices and skills gaps, etc. and, of course, the overarching economic crisis in Europe with no end in sight, as brought out starkly in therecent report by Mario Draghi. Basically, Biden is pre-setting the trajectory of the war beyond next January so that even after his retirement, his policy approach aimed at inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia remains on track. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Saturday that Washington is working on a “substantial” round of further assistance for Kiev. He confirmed a meeting this month between Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky. Sullivan noted that Biden is working to put Ukraine in the “best possible position to prevail” during his final months in office. The bottom line is that Biden’s war strategy is attenuating as “escalation management” while NATO transitions as a direct party to hostilities. This article was published at Indian Punchline