Maroc - NEWSDAY.CO.TT - A la Une - 22/Aug 06:33

Cherry-picking inflation figures harmful

INFLATION is down. Not only is it down, but it is in single-digit terrain. According to the Central Statistical Office (CSO), it was 0.8 per cent in February, 0.8 per cent in March, 0.5 per cent in April, 0.5 per cent in May, 0.7 per cent in June and 0.3 per cent in July. If these figures are correct, that suggests a significant containment. That’s a cause for celebration. But the sparring between Minister of Trade and Industry Paula Gopee-Scoon and St Augustine MP Khadijah Ameen over food prices this week was as artificial as it was unproductive. With both the PNM and UNC in election mode, the silly season is upon us. Using strong language, Ms Gopee-Scoon on August 19 said her political opponent was "misleading" the country on the issue. At the same time, the minister suggested Ms Ameen had used correct information, but "from two years ago." Ms Ameen, meanwhile, had made no secret of the fact that her figure of 8.6 per cent was from between July 2022 and July 2023. "A major issue is the severe foreign-exchange shortage," she said on August 18. "It creates a domino effect." Both are right. Both are wrong. It is only fair, whenever available, to make recourse to the most up-to-date information. So the failure to acknowledge inflation has steadily increased in recent times does impair the sense of a fuller picture. However, inflation is a long-term issue, not a short-term one. The very concept of inflation is premised on the passage of time. We cannot view monthly figures in a vacuum; their impact on the consumer’s purchasing power is cumulative. Saying inflation is down this month while ignoring previous months is short-sighted. Another reason why cherry-picking figures is counterproductive relates to one of Ms Gopee-Scoon’s pet peeves from her time in office. [caption id="attachment_1104019" align="alignnone" width="870"] Trade Minister Paula Gopee-Scoon. FILE PHOTO - Faith Ayoung[/caption] It was only four years ago that the minister launched a public crackdown on price-gouging by retailers. Consumer Affairs Division officers, she said back then, would be in the field to monitor and inform consumers about prices to combat "unscrupulous" businesses. She appealed to supermarkets and warned that naming and shaming would become the norm. In 2022, she asked these entities to have a heart. When the inflation rate is contained, and even when global prices go down, it is clear, then, that this is not immediately reflected on the shelves. To that extent, it is little comfort to boast of a short-term reduction in the inflation rate without an assurance that prices might soon go in the opposite direction; that purchasing power might increase amid a general rise in the cost of living. The widespread perception of price-gouging harms the economy because it turns purchasers away from spending. Equally, citing inflation figures – which measure a rate of increase – while suggesting prices have gone down undermines the authority of discourse, because it opens a gap between what is said and pockets. Massaging figures might score points. But ultimately, it harms the ability of both PNM and UNC politicians to make effective economic policy.   The post Cherry-picking inflation figures harmful appeared first on Trinidad and Tobago Newsday.