Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 14/Aug 12:11

Winners And Losers In The Middle East – OpEd

The Middle East is shaking. Anxiety is rampant across the region. Some are expecting a regional war, while others are saying there will be a third world war. However, we are not witnessing a voice from China that is proportionate to its size. Some mediation and that's all. In fact, China is at the forefront of the countries that should be most concerned with the region. How could it not be? China is the world’s largest energy consumer. Every year, it consumes three times more energy than all of the European Union and almost twice as much as the US. It is the world’s second largest consumer of oil after the US, and third largest consumer of natural gas after the US and Russia. Last year, this country alone consumed 17 percent of global crude oil and 11 percent of natural gas. On the other hand, the Middle East has the world's largest oil and gas resources. Therefore, it is impossible for China and the region not to have close energy-related contacts. Consequently, nearly half of China’s oil imports and a quarter of its gas imports come from this region. Thus, the Middle East's oil and natural gas reserves are critically important for China's energy security. And therefore, any political or economic development in the region should be of primary concern to China. But there is another side of the coin: In fact, the Middle East's dependence on China in energy trade is now greater than China's dependence on the Middle East. And why is that? Because the balance in the region's oil and gas trade has changed rapidly in recent years, and China's share has increased with each passing year. While the US accounted for approximately 10 percent of the region's total oil exports a decade ago, this figure dropped to a mere 3.5 percent in 2023. Meanwhile, exports to the European continent remained relatively stable at around 11 percent. However, China's share doubled to reach 30 percent, up from 15 percent. Similarly, in the natural gas market, while Europe's share declined from around 20 percent to 15 percent over the past decade, China's share more than doubled, rising from around 6 percent to 15 percent. The dependency is even more pronounced on a country-by-country basis: Iraq sent 32 percent of its oil exports to China in 2023, Kuwait 30 percent, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates 25 percent. Around 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports and more than 20 percent of Qatar’s LNG exports in 2023 were sent to the same country. So it wouldn’t take long for these countries’ economies to collapse if they lose the Chinese market. Driven by their need to market their energy resources to China, a burgeoning global power, Middle Eastern countries are deepening their ties with the Asian giant, anticipating mutual gains. Moreover, this trend is accelerating as dissatisfaction with US policies in the region grows. China, aware of the opportunity it has, is developing rational relations with all parties in the region for years and is trying to increase its economic and strategic influence. Its activities in the Middle East are no longer limited to the energy sector. It is collaborating with the countries in the region in various fields, including infrastructure projects, finance, and technology transfer. Meanwhile, China, while distancing itself from the intractable tensions of the Middle East, is quite pleased that its number one rival, the US, is a major player in these conflicts. It sees that developments in the region, including the Israel-Hamas conflict, are increasingly discrediting the US, but that its interdependence with the countries of the region, especially in energy, is strengthening it. While trying to balance its relations with Israel by calling for moderation and peace after almost every tension or conflict in the region, its direct criticism of Israel this time regarding the Gaza issue and its adoption of a pro-Palestinian position together with other countries in the region are clearly calculated steps by China aimed at preserving its energy-based strategic interests in the Middle East. Ultimately, when looking at the current positions of the parties, it seems that the US and Israel will continue to lose by fighting in the Middle East, while China will continue to win without fighting for some time to come.